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Adam Sarhan. Psychological Analysis
Table of Contents
List of Illustrations
Guide
Pages
Psychological Analysis. How to Make Money, Outsmart the Market, & Join the Smart Money Circle
Foreword
Prologue: You Deserve to Win and Be Rich
SIMPLE BUT NOT EASY
TWO TYPES OF MONEY
YOUR BIGGEST OBSTACLE
ACTIVATING YOUR SMART MONEY SUPERHERO
THE FOCUS IS ON WALL STREET
Acknowledgments
About the Author
Disclaimer
CHAPTER 1 How to Think Like the Top 1%
ENTREPRENEURIAL SPIRIT
AN INVESTOR IS BORN
MARKET TUITION
THE ALLURE OF SPECULATION
TAKING CONTROL
CHAPTER 2 Why You Aren't Beating the Market. HOW I ACCIDENTLY STUMBLED ON MY SECRET WEAPON: PSYCHOLOGY
PAPER TRADING
BEATING THE MARKET
ONE IDEA, PROPERLY EXECUTED
PAIN AND PLEASURE
PSYCHOLOGY OF SUCCESS
SMART MONEY VERSUS DUMB MONEY
THE INDESCRIBABLE QUALITY OF HUMAN NATURE
CHAPTER 3 The One Question You Need to Ask Before Getting Started
ARE YOU AN INVESTOR OR A TRADER?
WHAT IS “THE MARKET”?
MARKET LEXICON
Are You Long or Short?
Bull and Bear Markets
Orders
THE (GREAT) AMERICAN TAILWIND
MAKE THE TREND YOUR FRIEND
INVESTING VERSUS TRADING
TYPES OF INVESTORS
Value
Disruption
Growth
Hypergrowth
Growth at a Reasonable Price
SPECULATORS
PROFITS ARE A FUNCTION OF TIME
OPERATIONAL TIME FRAMES
PICK YOUR TIME FRAME: SHORT, INTERMEDIATE, OR LONG TERM
Short‐Term: Scalping
Intermediate‐Term: Swing and Position Trading
Long‐Term: Buy‐and‐Hold Investors
FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
THE ANATOMY OF A TRADER
CHAPTER 4 How to Use Fundamental Analysis Like a Pro
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS 101
VALUE VERSUS PRICE
FUNDAMENTAL INDICATORS OF VALUE
Price‐to‐Earnings (P/E) Ratio
Sales and Earnings Growth
Return on Equity
Cash Flow
THE TROUBLE WITH FUNDAMENTAL INDICATORS
IMPORTANT:
CONFUSING NUMBERS AND CREATIVE ACCOUNTING
Two Types of Earnings per Share
Two Types of Accounting
Beware of Manipulated Reporting
STRONG FUNDAMENTALS? SO WHAT?
THE MARKET IS A FORWARD‐LOOKING APPARATUS
Leading Earnings
Sales Growth as a Leading Indicator
Cash Flow as a Leading Indicator
THE VALUE INVESTOR'S LONG‐TERM BET
ANOTHER WAY OF DEFINING PRICE
CHAPTER 5 How to Use Technical Analysis Like a Pro
WHAT IS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS?
NAVIGATING THE AMERICAN TAILWIND
BRIEF HISTORY OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
DISCRETIONARY VERSUS SYSTEMATIC TRADING
READING CHARTS
Line Charts
OHLC Bar Charts
Candlestick Charts
FINDING PATTERNS IN STOCK CHARTS
STAGE ANALYSIS: FOUR STAGES
TRENDLINES—CONNECTING DOTS
MOVING AVERAGES—SMOOTHING OUT PRICE ACTION
FAST‐ AND SLOW‐MOVING AVERAGES
SLOPE
VOLUME
TIGHT ACTION
IDENTIFYING TOPS AND BOTTOMS
EXPECT PULLBACKS AND CORRECTIONS; DON'T FEAR THEM
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS MORE OF AN ART THAN A SCIENCE
CHAPTER 6 How to Develop a Winning Strategy That Beats the Market
DEVELOP YOUR STRATEGY
THREE DIRECTIONS
THREE ACTIONS
WHAT TO BUY
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
BREAKOUTS AND BREAKDOWNS
ADVANCED ENTRY POINTS
HOW TO BUY THE DIP—AFTER THE BOUNCE
RISK AND REWARD
DEVELOPING YOUR OWN STRATEGY
PEOPLE LOVE STRUCTURE: DEVELOP RULES AND GUIDELINES
RULES VERSUS GUIDELINES
FIND YOUR EDGE AND EXPLOIT IT
ARBITRAGE
Intellectual Arbitrage
Time Arbitrage
Task Arbitrage
Social Arbitrage
CREATE A PLAN, THEN TRADE YOUR PLAN
KEEP IT SIMPLE
THE A.M.P.D. INVESTMENT SYSTEM
Defense First: Always Respect Risk
Advanced Entry and Exit Points
Market Conditions—Align Yourself with the Trend
Psychological Analysis
CHAPTER 7 Psychological Analysis: What It Is and How to Use It. FIX YOUR MIND, FIX YOUR LIFE: CREATE A HEALTHY MINDSET AND OVERCOME A TOXIC ONE
MENTAL CAPITAL
HUMAN NATURE IS CONSTANT
PAIN AND PLEASURE
EMOTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH PAIN AND PLEASURE
Pain Emotions
Fear
Anger and Sadness
Disgust
Remorse
Surprise
Pleasure Emotions
Happiness and Joy
Greed
Trust
Hope
Love
BREAKING OUT
CHAPTER 8 Master Your Mental State and Your Life Will Change
YOUR RELATIONSHIP WITH MONEY
UNDERSTANDING YOUR MENTAL STATE
CONTROLLING YOUR INPUTS
CONTROL YOUR FOCUS
KEEP IT SIMPLE
CONTROL YOUR DESIRES OR YOUR DESIRES WILL CONTROL YOU
KNOW—AND MASTER—THYSELF
MAKING GREAT DECISIONS
CHAPTER 9 How to Make Smarter Decisions
GOOD VERSUS EVIL: SMART MONEY VERSUS DUMB MONEY
THE DANGER OF EMOTIONAL LOGIC
STUDY THE CROWD
RETAIL VERSUS INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS
“THEY” WHO?
ANALYZE THREE SIDES
THEY (DON'T) WANT YOU TO LOSE
THINK CLEARLY (A.K.A. ACCURATELY)
CHAPTER 10 What's Holding You Back?: Mental Walls and Cognitive Biases
WHAT ARE MENTAL WALLS?
A NEW WAY TO LOOK AT WEALTH
MENTAL WALLS
Knowledge Wall
Certainty (Belief) Wall
Execution Wall
Financial Wall
Emotional Wall
COGNITIVE BIASES
BIASED THINKING: (DON'T BE) FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS OR THE EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS THEORY
STOP (OR LIMIT) YOUR BIASED THINKING
CHAPTER 11 Create a Smarter You with an Unbiased Mind
ANCHORING
CONFIRMATION BIAS
IRRATIONAL ESCALATION BIAS
CONSERVATISM BIAS
HYPERBOLIC DISCOUNTING
ILLUSION OF CONTROL
INFORMATION BIAS
NEGLECT OF PROBABILITY
POST‐PURCHASE RATIONALIZATION
STATUS QUO BIAS
WISHFUL THINKING BIAS
RISK AVERSION
FRAMING BIAS
DISPOSITION EFFECT
DENIAL
OUTCOME BIAS
RECENCY BIAS
HASTY GENERALIZATION
GROUPTHINK
HALO EFFECT
PERSONAL BLIND SPOT BIAS
CHAPTER 12 Ever Hit a Wall? Destroy It and Master the Learning Cycle
A WALK THROUGH ROCK CREEK PARK
EGO
FEAR
PAIN
SHORT‐TERM THINKING
ADULTING WALL (OVERCOMING CHILDISH BEHAVIOR)
LACK OF VISION WALL
OTHER DUMB MONEY WALLS
IDENTIFY YOUR WALLS AND DESTROY THEM
CHAPTER 13 The Most Important Skill to Master on Wall Street
ALWAYS RESPECT RISK
BASIC RISK MITIGATION STRATEGY
WIN RATE (KNOW THE STATS)
WHY WE CUT AND RUN FROM LOSERS
ALWAYS REDUCE, NEVER INCREASE, RISK
OTHER TYPES OF RISK
Market (a.k.a. Systematic) Risk
Specific (a.k.a. Unsystematic) Risk
Interest Rate Risk
Credit Risk
Liquidity Risk
Currency and Political Risk
Operational Risk
Gapping
LEVERAGE
PSYCHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS
CHAPTER 14 What Happens Next: Navigating to the Right of the Chart. THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE CHART—THE ONLY PLACE TO MAKE MONEY
NAVIGATING THE UNKNOWN
THE UNPREDICTABILITY OF MARKETS
THE SMART MONEY LOOKS FORWARD
FORGIVE AND MOVE FORWARD
STOP TRYING TO PREDICT MARKET ACTION (INSTEAD LEARN TO EXPECT IT)
DEVELOPING YOUR OWN WAY FORWARD
TRADE IN THE NOW
CHAPTER 15 Welcome to the Smart Money Circle
START SMALL AND SCALE SLOWLY
THE LEARNING CYCLE
THE TRADER'S HIERARCHY OF SUCCESS
Phase 1: Dream It
Phase 2: Do It
Phase 3: Live It
SEVEN TRADING PERSONALITIES
The Scaredy Cat: Fear‐Based Trader
The Cowboy: Aggressive and Fails
The Professor: Paralysis by Analysis
The Machine Gun: Rapid‐Fire Trader
The Artist: Lost Touch with Reality
The Passive Trader: Watching from the Sidelines
The Smart Money Trader
PARTING THOUGHTS
Always Respect Risk
Always Look Forward
Don't Force It
Avoid Tickicitis
Anticipate, Don't Predict
Profits Are a Function of Time
Date Your Positions, Don't Marry Them
Stay Focused and Avoid Style Drift
Reduce Your Unforced Errors
Take Responsibility for Everything
Focus on the What, Not the Why
Live in the Now and Always Look Forward
Create and Tell a New Empowering Story
Keep It Simple
The Market Is Speaking—Are You Listening?
Epilogue: It's Time to Become Rich
ADAM'S QUICK TRADING GUIDE
ENTRIES AND EXITS: BUY AND SELL GUIDELINES
BUY THE BOUNCE AFTER THE DIP
EXITS: BUY AND SELL GUIDELINES
Scenario 1: Exit for Gain
Scenario 2: Exit for Breakeven
Scenario 3: Exit for a Loss
DRAWDOWNS
ADAM'S SMART MONEY SECRETS
Bibliography. BOOKS
MOVIES
Index
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