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Ben Carlson. Don't Fall For It
Don't Fall for It. A SHORT HISTORY OF. FINANCIAL SCAMS
CONTENTS
List of Tables
List of Illustrations
Guide
Pages
Introduction
Subject: Fred Haines, Code B-Dog
The Airplane Game
Notes
CHAPTER 1 No One Sells Miracles
Goats as Viagra?
Are You a Manly Man Full of Vigor?
Radio
The Placebo Effect
Correlation Does Not Imply Causation
Same as It Ever Was
Notes
CHAPTER 2 How to Sell Anything
The Count
Selling the Eiffel Tower
Everyone Is in Sales
Notes
CHAPTER 3 Fast Money
The Promise of Huge Returns with Minimal Effort
When Trust Goes too Far
Do Your Homework
Notes
CHAPTER 4 It’s the End of the World as We Know It
Cognitive Dissonance
The Man Who Walked on Water
No One Knows What’s Going to Happen
Why Pessimism Sells Better than Optimism
Number of People in Extreme Poverty Fell by 137,000 Since Yesterday
The Value of ‘I Don’t Know’
Notes
CHAPTER 5 Sleight of Hand
Bad Brad
A Magician Reveals His Secrets
Notes
CHAPTER 6 When Success Doesn’t Translate
Defeated by Decency
Don’t Try to Get Rich Twice
Notes
CHAPTER 7 When Fraud Flourishes
When There’s an ‘Expert’ with a Good Story
When Capital Becomes Blind
When the Banking Industry Gets Involved
When Individuals Begin Taking Their Cues from the Crowd
When Markets Are Rocking
When the Opportunity Presents Itself
When Human Beings Are Involved
When Innovation Runs Rampant
Notes
CHAPTER 8 The Siren Song of New Technologies
The Railway Napoleon
The Media’s Role in a Bubble
The Other Side
The Silver Lining of a Market Crash
Notes
CHAPTER 9 The Seductive Power of FOMO
How to Create a Monopoly
The Roaring 20s
When the Tide Goes Out
Not a Ponzi but Close Enough
The Seductive Power of FOMO
Notes
CHAPTER 10 Type I Charlatan
John Law and the Mississippi Company
Speculation Is a Hell of a Drug
Pop Goes the Bubble
Type I and Type II Charlatans
Notes
CHAPTER 11 Type II Charlatan
The South Sea Company
Type II Charlatan John Blunt
The Bubble Act
The Echo Bubble and Dunbar’s Number
Notes
CHAPTER 12 Fooled by Intelligence
Newton’s Mania
The Problem with Smartest People in the Room
Why Smart People Make Dumb Decisions
Fooling Yourself with Complexity
Notes
CHAPTER 13 How Gullible Are You?
Ponzi versus Bernie
The Sacred Relationship
Notes
CHAPTER 14 The Easiest Person to Fool
Getting Rich versus Staying Rich
Shot out of a Cannon
The Biggest Fraud of All
Notes
Conclusion: Six Signs of Financial Fraud
1. The Money Manager Has Custody of Your Assets
2. There Is an Aura of Exclusivity in the Pitch
3. When the Strategy Is too Complicated to Understand
4. When the Story Is too Good to Be True
5. When the Returns Are Ridiculously Good
6. When They Tell You Exactly What You Want to Hear
Notes
Index. A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
O
P
Q
R
S
T
U
V
W
Z
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Ben Carlson
— Polybius
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Most of the stories you read in this book will make you think, “There’s no way that could ever happen to me.” The truth is, even if you never fall prey to massive fraud or a Ponzi scheme, everyone makes dumb decisions with their money. It’s in our DNA. Most business and finance books tell you how to be successful. They purport to give you the secret, the recipe, the motivational quote, or the simple steps to earn riches or emulate successful entrepreneurs, business models, investors, or CEOs. This is not one of those books. The problem with only studying successes is they’re often overflowing with survivorship bias. You never hear about all of the other failed businesses, ideas, or individuals who tried a similar route but failed. The person who won the lottery can’t teach you how to follow their path to success and riches.
There is much more to learn from failures, fraud, charlatans, shady sales practices, and scams because it gives you some idea of what to avoid. There is no formula for getting rich quickly. No top-ten list or morning routine of high-functioning CEOs will automatically make you a successful entrepreneur. But studying poor decisions, gullible individuals, hucksters, irrational human behavior, and mental errors can help you see these things in yourself. Avoiding stupidity is often more helpful than trying to emulate brilliance. Even brilliant people can make bad decisions (as you will learn throughout these chapters). Money is one of the most unifying mediums on the planet. People of all levels of wealth – the rich, the poor, and everyone in between – make dumb decisions with their money. The simple reason for this is because money decisions have nothing to do with finances and everything to do with human nature.
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