Applied Univariate, Bivariate, and Multivariate Statistics

Applied Univariate, Bivariate, and Multivariate Statistics
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AN UPDATED GUIDE TO STATISTICAL MODELING TECHNIQUES USED IN THE SOCIAL AND BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES The revised and updated second edition of Applied Univariate, Bivariate, and Multivariate Statistics: Understanding Statistics for Social and Natural Scientists, with Applications in SPSS and R contains an accessible introduction to statistical modeling techniques commonly used in the social and behavioral sciences. The text offers a blend of statistical theory and methodology and reviews both the technical and theoretical aspects of good data analysis. Featuring applied resources at various levels, the book includes statistical techniques using software packages such as R and SPSS®. To promote a more in-depth interpretation of statistical techniques across the sciences, the book surveys some of the technical arguments underlying formulas and equations. The thoroughly updated edition includes new chapters on nonparametric statistics and multidimensional scaling, and expanded coverage of time series models. The second edition has been designed to be more approachable by minimizing theoretical or technical jargon and maximizing conceptual understanding with easy-to-apply software examples. This important text: Offers demonstrations of statistical techniques using software packages such as R and SPSS® Contains examples of hypothetical and real data with statistical analyses Provides historical and philosophical insights into many of the techniques used in modern social science Includes a companion website that includes further instructional details, additional data sets, solutions to selected exercises, and multiple programming options Written for students of social and applied sciences, Applied Univariate, Bivariate, and Multivariate Statistics, Second Edition offers a text to statistical modeling techniques used in social and behavioral sciences.

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Daniel J. Denis. Applied Univariate, Bivariate, and Multivariate Statistics

Table of Contents

List of Tables

List of Illustrations

Guide

Pages

APPLIED UNIVARIATE, BIVARIATE, AND MULTIVARIATE STATISTICS: UNDERSTANDING STATISTICS FOR SOCIAL AND NATURAL SCIENTISTS, WITH APPLICATIONS IN SPSS AND R

PREFACE

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

ABOUT THE COMPANION WEBSITE

1 PRELIMINARY CONSIDERATIONS

1.1 THE PHILOSOPHICAL BASES OF KNOWLEDGE: RATIONALISTIC VERSUS EMPIRICIST PURSUITS

1.2 WHAT IS A “MODEL”?

1.3 SOCIAL SCIENCES VERSUS HARD SCIENCES

1.4 IS COMPLEXITY A GOOD DEPICTION OF REALITY? ARE MULTIVARIATE METHODS USEFUL?

1.5 CAUSALITY

1.6 THE NATURE OF MATHEMATICS: MATHEMATICS AS A REPRESENTATION OF CONCEPTS

1.7 AS A SCIENTIST, HOW MUCH MATHEMATICS DO YOU NEED TO KNOW?

1.8 STATISTICS AND RELATIVITY

1.9 EXPERIMENTAL VERSUS STATISTICAL CONTROL

1.10 STATISTICAL VERSUS PHYSICAL EFFECTS

1.11 UNDERSTANDING WHAT “APPLIED STATISTICS” MEANS

Review Exercises

Further Discussion and Activities

Notes

2 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS

2.1 DENSITIES AND DISTRIBUTIONS

2.1.1 Plotting Normal Distributions

2.1.2 Binomial Distributions

2.1.3 Normal Approximation

2.1.4 Joint Probability Densities: Bivariate and Multivariate Distributions

2.2 CHI‐SQUARE DISTRIBUTIONS AND GOODNESS‐OF‐FIT TEST

2.2.1 Power for Chi‐Square Test of Independence

2.3 SENSITIVITY AND SPECIFICITY

2.4 SCALES OF MEASUREMENT: NOMINAL, ORDINAL, INTERVAL, RATIO

2.4.1 Nominal Scale

2.4.2 Ordinal Scale

2.4.3 Interval Scale

2.4.4 Ratio Scale

2.5 MATHEMATICAL VARIABLES VERSUS RANDOM VARIABLES

2.6 MOMENTS AND EXPECTATIONS

2.6.1 Sample and Population Mean Vectors

2.7 ESTIMATION AND ESTIMATORS

2.8 VARIANCE

2.9 DEGREES OF FREEDOM

2.10 SKEWNESS AND KURTOSIS

2.11 SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS

2.11.1 Sampling Distribution of the Mean

2.12 CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM

2.13 CONFIDENCE INTERVALS

2.14 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD

2.15 AKAIKE'S INFORMATION CRITERIA

2.16 COVARIANCE AND CORRELATION

2.17 PSYCHOMETRIC VALIDITY, RELIABILITY: A COMMON USE OF CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS

2.18 COVARIANCE AND CORRELATION MATRICES

2.19 OTHER CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS

2.20 STUDENT'S t DISTRIBUTION

2.20.1 t‐Tests for One Sample

2.20.2 t‐Tests for Two Samples

2.20.3 Two‐Sample t‐Tests in R

2.21 STATISTICAL POWER

2.21.1 Visualizing Power

2.22 POWER ESTIMATION USING R AND G*POWER

2.22.1 Estimating Sample Size and Power for Independent Samples t‐Test

2.23 PAIRED‐SAMPLES t‐TEST: STATISTICAL TEST FOR MATCHED‐PAIRS (ELEMENTARY BLOCKING) DESIGNS

2.24 BLOCKING WITH SEVERAL CONDITIONS

2.25 COMPOSITE VARIABLES: LINEAR COMBINATIONS

2.26 MODELS IN MATRIX FORM

2.27 GRAPHICAL APPROACHES

2.27.1 Box‐and‐Whisker Plots

2.28 WHAT MAKES A p‐VALUE SMALL? A CRITICAL OVERVIEW AND PRACTICAL DEMONSTRATION OF NULL HYPOTHESIS SIGNIFICANCE TESTING

2.28.1 Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST): A Legacy of Criticism

2.28.2 The Make‐Up of a p‐Value: A Brief Recap and Summary

2.28.3 The Issue of Standardized Testing: Are Students in Your School Achieving More Than the National Average?

2.28.4 Other Test Statistics

2.28.5 The Solution

2.28.6 Statistical Distance: Cohen's d

2.28.7 What Does Cohen's d Actually Tell Us?

2.28.8 Why and Where the Significance Test Still Makes Sense

2.29 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND HIGHLIGHTS

Review Exercises

Further Discussion and Activities

Notes

3 ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE: FIXED EFFECTS MODELS

3.1 WHAT IS ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE? FIXED VERSUS RANDOM EFFECTS

3.1.1 Small Sample Example: Achievement as a Function of Teacher

3.1.2 Is Achievement a Function of Teacher?

3.2 HOW ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE WORKS: A BIG PICTURE OVERVIEW

3.2.1 Is the Observed Difference Likely? ANOVA as a Comparison (Ratio) of Variances

3.3 LOGIC AND THEORY OF ANOVA: A DEEPER LOOK

3.3.1 Independent‐Samples t‐Tests Versus Analysis of Variance

3.3.2 The ANOVA Model: Explaining Variation

3.3.3 Breaking Down a Deviation

3.3.4 Naming the Deviations

3.3.5 The Sums of Squares of ANOVA

3.4 FROM SUMS OF SQUARES TO UNBIASED VARIANCE ESTIMATORS: DIVIDING BY DEGREES OF FREEDOM

3.5 EXPECTED MEAN SQUARES FOR ONE‐WAY FIXED EFFECTS MODEL: DERIVING THE F‐RATIO

3.6 THE NULL HYPOTHESIS IN ANOVA

3.7 FIXED EFFECTS ANOVA: MODEL ASSUMPTIONS

3.8 A WORD ON EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN AND RANDOMIZATION

3.9 A PREVIEW OF THE CONCEPT OF NESTING

3.10 BALANCED VERSUS UNBALANCED DATA IN ANOVA MODELS

3.11 MEASURES OF ASSOCIATION AND EFFECT SIZE IN ANOVA: MEASURES OF VARIANCE EXPLAINED

3.11.1 η2 Eta‐Squared

3.11.2 Omega‐Squared

3.12 THE F‐TEST AND THE INDEPENDENT SAMPLES t‐TEST

3.13 CONTRASTS AND POST‐HOCS

3.13.1 Independence of Contrasts

3.13.2 Independent Samples t‐Test as a Linear Contrast

3.14 POST‐HOC TESTS

3.14.1 Newman–Keuls and Tukey HSD

3.14.2 Tukey HSD

3.14.3 Scheffé Test

3.14.4 Other Post‐Hoc Tests

3.14.5 Contrast versus Post‐Hoc? Which Should I Be Doing?

3.15 SAMPLE SIZE AND POWER FOR ANOVA: ESTIMATION WITH R AND G*POWER

3.15.1 Power for ANOVA in R and G*Power

3.15.2 Computing f

3.16 FIXED EFFECTS ONE‐WAY ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE IN R: MATHEMATICS ACHIEVEMENT AS A FUNCTION OF TEACHER

3.16.1 Evaluating Assumptions

3.16.2 Post‐Hoc Tests on Teacher

3.17 ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE VIA R’s lm

3.18 KRUSKAL–WALLIS TEST IN R AND THE MOTIVATION BEHIND NONPARAMETRIC TESTS

3.19 ANOVA IN SPSS: ACHIEVEMENT AS A FUNCTION OF TEACHER

3.20 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND HIGHLIGHTS

REVIEW EXERCISES

Further Discussion and Activities

Notes

4 FACTORIAL ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE: MODELING INTERACTIONS

4.1 WHAT IS FACTORIAL ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE?

4.2 THEORY OF FACTORIAL ANOVA: A DEEPER LOOK

4.2.1 Deriving the Model for Two‐Way Factorial ANOVA

4.2.2 Cell Effects

4.2.3 Interaction Effects

4.2.4 Cell Effects Versus Interaction Effects

4.2.5 A Model for the Two‐Way Fixed Effects ANOVA

4.3 COMPARING ONE‐WAY ANOVA TO TWO‐WAY ANOVA: CELL EFFECTS IN FACTORIAL ANOVA VERSUS SAMPLE EFFECTS IN ONE‐WAY ANOVA

4.4 PARTITIONING THE SUMS OF SQUARES FOR FACTORIAL ANOVA: THE CASE OF TWO FACTORS

4.4.1 SS Total: A Measure of Total Variation

4.4.2 Model Assumptions: Two‐Way Factorial Model

4.4.3 Expected Mean Squares for Factorial Design

4.4.4 Recap of Expected Mean Squares

4.5 INTERPRETING MAIN EFFECTS IN THE PRESENCE OF INTERACTIONS

4.6 EFFECT SIZE MEASURES

4.7 THREE‐WAY, FOUR‐WAY, AND HIGHER MODELS

4.8 SIMPLE MAIN EFFECTS

4.9 NESTED DESIGNS

4.9.1 Varieties of Nesting: Nesting of Levels Versus Subjects

4.10 ACHIEVEMENT AS A FUNCTION OF TEACHER AND TEXTBOOK: EXAMPLE OF FACTORIAL ANOVA IN R

4.10.1 Comparing Models Through AIC

4.10.2 Visualizing Main Effects and Interaction Effects Simultaneously

4.10.3 Simple Main Effects for Achievement Data: Breaking Down Interaction Effects

4.11 INTERACTION CONTRASTS

4.12 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND HIGHLIGHTS

REVIEW EXERCISES

5 INTRODUCTION TO RANDOM EFFECTS AND MIXED MODELS

5.1 WHAT IS RANDOM EFFECTS ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE?

5.2 THEORY OF RANDOM EFFECTS MODELS

5.3 ESTIMATION IN RANDOM EFFECTS MODELS

5.3.1 Transitioning from Fixed Effects to Random Effects

5.3.2 Expected Mean Squares for MS Between and MS Within

5.4 DEFINING NULL HYPOTHESES IN RANDOM EFFECTS MODELS

5.4.1 F‐Ratio for Testing H0

5.5 COMPARING NULL HYPOTHESES IN FIXED VERSUS RANDOM EFFECTS MODELS: THE IMPORTANCE OF ASSUMPTIONS

5.6 ESTIMATING VARIANCE COMPONENTS IN RANDOM EFFECTS MODELS: ANOVA, ML, REML ESTIMATORS

5.6.1 ANOVA Estimators of Variance Components

5.6.2 Maximum Likelihood and Restricted Maximum Likelihood

5.7 IS ACHIEVEMENT A FUNCTION OF TEACHER? ONE‐WAY RANDOM EFFECTS MODEL IN R

5.7.1 Proportion of Variance Accounted for by Teacher

5.8 R ANALYSIS USING REML

5.9 ANALYSIS IN SPSS: OBTAINING VARIANCE COMPONENTS

5.10 Factorial Random Effects: A Two‐Way Model

5.11 FIXED EFFECTS VERSUS RANDOM EFFECTS: A WAY OF CONCEPTUALIZING THEIR DIFFERENCES

5.12 CONCEPTUALIZING THE TWO‐WAY RANDOM EFFECTS MODEL: THE MAKE‐UP OF A RANDOMLY CHOSEN OBSERVATION

5.13 SUMS OF SQUARES AND EXPECTED MEAN SQUARES FOR RANDOM EFFECTS: THE CONTAMINATING INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION EFFECTS

5.13.1 Testing Null Hypotheses

5.14 YOU GET WHAT YOU GO IN WITH: THE IMPORTANCE OF MODEL ASSUMPTIONS AND MODEL SELECTION

5.15 MIXED MODEL ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE: INCORPORATING FIXED AND RANDOM EFFECTS

5.15.1 Mixed Model in R

5.16 MIXED MODELS IN MATRICES

5.17 MULTILEVEL MODELING AS A SPECIAL CASE OF THE MIXED MODEL: INCORPORATING NESTING AND CLUSTERING

5.18 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND HIGHLIGHTS

Review Exercises

6 RANDOMIZED BLOCKS AND REPEATED MEASURES

6.1 WHAT IS A RANDOMIZED BLOCK DESIGN?

6.2 RANDOMIZED BLOCK DESIGNS: SUBJECTS NESTED WITHIN BLOCKS

6.3 THEORY OF RANDOMIZED BLOCK DESIGNS

6.3.1 Nonadditive Randomized Block Design

6.3.2 Additive Randomized Block Design

6.4 TUKEY TEST FOR NONADDITIVITY

6.5 ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE COVARIANCE MATRIX

6.6 INTRACLASS CORRELATION

6.7 REPEATED MEASURES MODELS: A SPECIAL CASE OF RANDOMIZED BLOCK DESIGNS

6.8 INDEPENDENT VERSUS PAIRED‐SAMPLES t‐TEST

6.9 THE SUBJECT FACTOR: FIXED OR RANDOM EFFECT?

6.10 MODEL FOR ONE‐WAY REPEATED MEASURES DESIGN

6.10.1 Expected Mean Squares for Repeated Measures Models

6.11 ANALYSIS USING R: ONE‐WAY REPEATED MEASURES: LEARNING AS A FUNCTION OF TRIAL

6.12 ANALYSIS USING SPSS: ONE‐WAY REPEATED MEASURES: LEARNING AS A FUNCTION OF TRIAL

6.12.1 Which Results Should Be Interpreted?

6.13 SPSS TWO‐WAY REPEATED MEASURES ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE MIXED DESIGN: ONE BETWEEN FACTOR, ONE WITHIN FACTOR

6.13.1 Another Look at the Between‐Subjects Factor

6.14 Chapter Summary and Highlights

Review Exercises

7 LINEAR REGRESSION

7.1 BRIEF HISTORY OF REGRESSION

7.2 REGRESSION ANALYSIS AND SCIENCE: EXPERIMENTAL VERSUS CORRELATIONAL DISTINCTIONS

7.3 A MOTIVATING EXAMPLE: CAN OFFSPRING HEIGHT BE PREDICTED?

7.4 THEORY OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS: A DEEPER LOOK

7.5 MULTILEVEL YEARNINGS

7.6 THE LEAST‐SQUARES LINE

7.7 MAKING PREDICTIONS WITHOUT REGRESSION

7.8 MORE ABOUT εi

7.9 MODEL ASSUMPTIONS FOR LINEAR REGRESSION

7.9.1 Model Specification

7.9.2 Measurement Error

7.10 ESTIMATION OF MODEL PARAMETERS IN REGRESSION

7.10.1 Ordinary Least‐Squares (OLS)

7.11 NULL HYPOTHESES FOR REGRESSION

7.12 SIGNIFICANCE TESTS AND CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR MODEL PARAMETERS

7.13 OTHER FORMULATIONS OF THE REGRESSION MODEL

7.14 THE REGRESSION MODEL IN MATRICES: ALLOWING FOR MORE COMPLEX MULTIVARIABLE MODELS

7.15 ORDINARY LEAST‐SQUARES IN MATRICES

7.16 ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE FOR REGRESSION

7.17 MEASURES OF MODEL FIT FOR REGRESSION: HOW WELL DOES THE LINEAR EQUATION FIT?

7.18 ADJUSTED R2

7.19 WHAT “EXPLAINED VARIANCE” MEANS AND MORE IMPORTANTLY, WHAT IT DOES NOT MEAN

7.20 VALUES FIT BY REGRESSION

7.21 LEAST‐SQUARES REGRESSION IN R: USING MATRIX OPERATIONS

7.22 LINEAR REGRESSION USING R

7.23 REGRESSION DIAGNOSTICS: A CHECK ON MODEL ASSUMPTIONS

7.23.1 Understanding How Outliers Influence a Regression Model

7.23.2 Examining Outliers and Residuals

7.23.2.1 Errors Versus Residuals

7.23.2.2 Residual Plots

7.23.2.3 Time Series Models

7.23.3 Detecting Outliers

7.23.4 Normality of Residuals

7.24 REGRESSION IN SPSS: PREDICTING QUANTITATIVE FROM VERBAL

7.25 POWER ANALYSIS FOR LINEAR REGRESSION IN R

7.26 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND HIGHLIGHTS

REVIEW EXERCISES

Further Discussion and Activities

8 MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION

8.1 THEORY OF PARTIAL CORRELATION

8.2 SEMIPARTIAL CORRELATIONS

8.3 MULTIPLE REGRESSION

8.4 SOME PERSPECTIVE ON REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: “EXPERIMENTAL COEFFICIENTS”?

8.5 MULTIPLE REGRESSION MODEL IN MATRICES

8.6 ESTIMATION OF PARAMETERS

8.7 CONCEPTUALIZING MULTIPLE R

8.8 INTERPRETING REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: CORRELATED VERSUS UNCORRELATED PREDICTORS

8.9 ANDERSON’S IRIS DATA: PREDICTING SEPAL LENGTH FROM PETAL LENGTH AND PETAL WIDTH

8.10 FITTING OTHER FUNCTIONAL FORMS: A BRIEF LOOK AT POLYNOMIAL REGRESSION

8.11 MEASURES OF COLLINEARITY IN REGRESSION: VARIANCE INFLATION FACTOR AND TOLERANCE

8.12 R‐SQUARED AS A FUNCTION OF PARTIAL AND SEMIPARTIAL CORRELATIONS: THE STEPPING STONES TO FORWARD AND STEPWISE REGRESSION

8.13 MODEL‐BUILDING STRATEGIES: SIMULTANEOUS, HIERARCHICAL, FORWARD, STEPWISE

8.13.1 Simultaneous, Hierarchical, Forward

8.13.2 Stepwise Regression

8.13.3 Selection Procedures in R

8.13.4 Which Regression Procedure Should Be Used? Concluding Comments and Recommendations Regarding Model‐Building

8.14 POWER ANALYSIS FOR MULTIPLE REGRESSION

8.15 INTRODUCTION TO STATISTICAL MEDIATION: CONCEPTS AND CONTROVERSY

8.15.1 Statistical Versus True Mediation: Some Philosophical Pitfalls in the Interpretation of Mediation Analysis

8.16 BRIEF SURVEY OF RIDGE AND LASSO REGRESSION: PENALIZED REGRESSION MODELS AND THE CONCEPT OF SHRINKAGE

8.17 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND HIGHLIGHTS

Review Exercises

Further Discussion and Activities

Notes

9 INTERACTIONS IN MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION

9.1 THE ADDITIVE REGRESSION MODEL WITH TWO PREDICTORS

9.2 WHY THE INTERACTION IS THE PRODUCT TERM xizi: DRAWING AN ANALOGY TO FACTORIAL ANOVA

9.3 A MOTIVATING EXAMPLE OF INTERACTION IN REGRESSION: CROSSING A CONTINUOUS PREDICTOR WITH A DICHOTOMOUS PREDICTOR

9.4 ANALYSIS OF COVARIANCE

9.4.1 Is ANCOVA “Controlling” for Anything?

9.5 CONTINUOUS MODERATORS

9.6 SUMMING UP THE IDEA OF INTERACTIONS IN REGRESSION

9.7 DO MODERATORS REALLY “MODERATE” ANYTHING? 9.7.1 Some Philosophical Considerations

9.8 INTERPRETING MODEL COEFFICIENTS IN THE CONTEXT OF MODERATORS

9.9 MEAN‐CENTERING PREDICTORS: IMPROVING THE INTERPRETABILITY OF SIMPLE SLOPES

9.10 MULTILEVEL REGRESSION: ANOTHER SPECIAL CASE OF THE MIXED MODEL

9.11 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND HIGHLIGHTS

REVIEW EXERCISES

10 LOGISTIC REGRESSION AND THE GENERALIZED LINEAR MODEL

10.1 NONLINEAR MODELS

10.2 GENERALIZED LINEAR MODELS

10.2.1 The Logic of the Generalized Linear Model: How the Link Function Transforms Nonlinear Response Variables

10.3 CANONICAL LINKS

10.3.1 Canonical Link for Gaussian Variable

10.4 DISTRIBUTIONS AND GENERALIZED LINEAR MODELS

10.4.1 Logistic Models

10.4.2 Poisson Models

10.5 DISPERSION PARAMETERS AND DEVIANCE

10.6 LOGISTIC REGRESSION. 10.6.1 A Generalized Linear Model for Binary Responses

10.6.2 Model for Single Predictor

10.7 EXPONENTIAL AND LOGARITHMIC FUNCTIONS

10.7.1 Logarithms

10.7.2 The Natural Logarithm

10.8 ODDS AND THE LOGIT

10.9 PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER: LOGISTIC REGRESSION. 10.9.1 The Logistic Regression Model

10.9.2 Interpreting the Logit: A Survey of Logistic Regression Output

10.10 LOGISTIC REGRESSION IN R. 10.10.1 Challenger O‐ring Data

10.11 CHALLENGER ANALYSIS IN SPSS

10.11.1 Predictions of New Cases

10.12 SAMPLE SIZE, EFFECT SIZE, AND POWER

10.13 FURTHER DIRECTIONS

10.14 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND HIGHLIGHTS

REVIEW EXERCISES

Note

11 MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE

11.1 A MOTIVATING EXAMPLE: QUANTITATIVE AND VERBAL ABILITY AS A VARIATE

11.2 CONSTRUCTING THE COMPOSITE

11.3 THEORY OF MANOVA

11.4 IS THE LINEAR COMBINATION MEANINGFUL?

11.4.1 Control Over Type I Error Rate

11.4.2 Covariance Among Dependent Variables

11.4.3 Rao’s Paradox

11.5 MULTIVARIATE HYPOTHESES

11.6 ASSUMPTIONS OF MANOVA

11.7 HOTELLING’S T2: THE CASE OF GENERALIZING FROM UNIVARIATE TO MULTIVARIATE

11.8 THE COVARIANCE MATRIX S

11.9 FROM SUMS OF SQUARES AND CROSS‐PRODUCTS TO VARIANCES AND COVARIANCES

11.10 HYPOTHESIS AND ERROR MATRICES OF MANOVA

11.11 MULTIVARIATE TEST STATISTICS

11.11.1 Pillai’s Trace

11.11.2 Lawley–Hotelling’s Trace

11.12 EQUALITY OF COVARIANCE MATRICES

11.13 MULTIVARIATE CONTRASTS

11.14 MANOVA IN R AND SPSS

11.14.1 Univariate Analyses

11.15 MANOVA OF FISHER’S IRIS DATA

11.16 POWER ANALYSIS AND SAMPLE SIZE FOR MANOVA

11.17 MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS OF COVARIANCE AND MULTIVARIATE MODELS: A BIRD’S EYE VIEW OF LINEAR MODELS

11.18 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND HIGHLIGHTS

REVIEW EXERCISES

Further Discussion and Activities

Notes

12 DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS

12.1 WHAT IS DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS? THE BIG PICTURE ON THE IRIS DATA

12.2 THEORY OF DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS

12.2.1 Discriminant Analysis for Two Populations

12.2.2 Substituting the Maximizing Vector into Squared Standardized Difference

12.3 LDA IN R AND SPSS

12.4 DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS FOR SEVERAL POPULATIONS

12.4.1 Theory for Several Populations

12.5 DISCRIMINATING SPECIES OF IRIS: DISCRIMINANT ANALYSES FOR THREE POPULATIONS

12.6 A NOTE ON CLASSIFICATION AND ERROR RATES

12.6.1 Statistical Lives

12.7 DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS AND BEYOND

12.8 CANONICAL CORRELATION

12.9 MOTIVATING EXAMPLE FOR CANONICAL CORRELATION: HOTELLING’S 1936 DATA

12.10 CANONICAL CORRELATION AS A GENERAL LINEAR MODEL

12.11 THEORY OF CANONICAL CORRELATION

12.12 CANONICAL CORRELATION OF HOTELLING’S DATA

12.13 CANONICAL CORRELATION ON THE IRIS DATA: EXTRACTING CANONICAL CORRELATION FROM REGRESSION, MANOVA, LDA

12.14 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND HIGHLIGHTS

REVIEW EXERCISES

Further Discussion and Activities

Notes

13 PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS ANALYSIS

13.1 HISTORY OF PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS ANALYSIS

13.2 HOTELLING 1933

13.3 THEORY OF PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS ANALYSIS

13.3.1 The Theorem of Principal Components Analysis

13.4 EIGENVALUES AS VARIANCE

13.5 PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS AS LINEAR COMBINATIONS

13.6 EXTRACTING THE FIRST COMPONENT

13.6.1 Sample Variance of a Linear Combination

13.7 EXTRACTING THE SECOND COMPONENT

13.8 EXTRACTING THIRD AND REMAINING COMPONENTS

13.9 THE EIGENVALUE AS THE VARIANCE OF A LINEAR COMBINATION RELATIVE TO ITS LENGTH

13.10 DEMONSTRATING PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS ANALYSIS: PEARSON’S 1901 ILLUSTRATION

13.11 SCREE PLOTS

13.12 PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS VERSUS LEAST‐SQUARES REGRESSION LINES

13.13 COVARIANCE VERSUS CORRELATION MATRICES: PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS AND SCALING

13.14 PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS ANALYSIS USING SPSS

13.15 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND HIGHLIGHTS

REVIEW EXERCISES

Further Discussion and Activities

14 FACTOR ANALYSIS

14.1 HISTORY OF FACTOR ANALYSIS

14.2 FACTOR ANALYSIS AT A GLANCE

14.3 EXPLORATORY VERSUS CONFIRMATORY FACTOR ANALYSIS

14.4 THEORY OF FACTOR ANALYSIS: THE EXPLORATORY FACTOR‐ANALYTIC MODEL

14.5 THE COMMON FACTOR‐ANALYTIC MODEL

14.6 ASSUMPTIONS OF THE FACTOR‐ANALYTIC MODEL

14.7 WHY MODEL ASSUMPTIONS ARE IMPORTANT

14.8 THE FACTOR MODEL AS AN IMPLICATION FOR THE COVARIANCE MATRIX ∑

14.9 AGAIN, WHY IS ∑ = ΛΛ′ + ψ SO IMPORTANT A RESULT?

14.10 THE MAJOR CRITIQUE AGAINST FACTOR ANALYSIS: INDETERMINACY AND THE NONUNIQUENESS OF SOLUTIONS

14.11 HAS YOUR FACTOR ANALYSIS BEEN SUCCESSFUL?

14.12 ESTIMATION OF PARAMETERS IN EXPLORATORY FACTOR ANALYSIS

14.13 PRINCIPAL FACTOR

14.14 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD

14.15 THE CONCEPTS (AND CRITICISMS) OF FACTOR ROTATION

14.16 VARIMAX AND QUARTIMAX ROTATION

14.17 SHOULD FACTORS BE ROTATED? IS THAT NOT CHEATING?

14.18 SAMPLE SIZE FOR FACTOR ANALYSIS

14.19 PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS ANALYSIS VERSUS FACTOR ANALYSIS: TWO KEY DIFFERENCES

14.19.1 Hypothesized Model and Underlying Theoretical Assumptions

14.19.2 Solutions Are Not Invariant in Factor Analysis

14.20 PRINCIPAL FACTOR IN SPSS: PRINCIPAL AXIS FACTORING

14.21 BARTLETT TEST OF SPHERICITY AND KAISER–MEYER–OLKIN MEASURE OF SAMPLING ADEQUACY (MSA)

14.22 FACTOR ANALYSIS IN R: HOLZINGER AND SWINEFORD (1939)

14.23 CLUSTER ANALYSIS

14.24 WHAT IS CLUSTER ANALYSIS? THE BIG PICTURE

14.25 MEASURING PROXIMITY

14.26 HIERARCHICAL CLUSTERING APPROACHES

14.27 NONHIERARCHICAL CLUSTERING APPROACHES

14.28 K‐MEANS CLUSTER ANALYSIS IN R

14.29 GUIDELINES AND WARNINGS ABOUT CLUSTER ANALYSIS

14.30 A BRIEF LOOK AT MULTIDIMENSIONAL SCALING

14.31 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND HIGHLIGHTS

REVIEW EXERCISES

Further Discussion and Activities

Notes

15 PATH ANALYSIS AND STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODELING

15.1 PATH ANALYSIS: A MOTIVATING EXAMPLE—PREDICTING IQ ACROSS GENERATIONS

15.2 PATH ANALYSIS AND “CAUSAL MODELING”

15.3 EARLY POST‐WRIGHT PATH ANALYSIS: PREDICTING CHILD'S IQ (Burks, 1928)

15.4 DECOMPOSING PATH COEFFICIENTS

15.5 PATH COEFFICIENTS AND WRIGHT'S CONTRIBUTION

15.6 PATH ANALYSIS IN R—A QUICK OVERVIEW: MODELING GALTON'S DATA

15.6.1 Path Model in AMOS

15.7 CONFIRMATORY FACTOR ANALYSIS: THE MEASUREMENT MODEL

15.7.1 Confirmatory Factor Analysis as a Means of Evaluating Construct Validity and Assessing Psychometric Qualities

15.8 STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODELS

15.9 DIRECT, INDIRECT, AND TOTAL EFFECTS

15.10 THEORY OF STATISTICAL MODELING: A DEEPER LOOK INTO COVARIANCE STRUCTURES AND GENERAL MODELING

15.11 THE DISCREPANCY FUNCTION AND CHI‐SQUARE

15.12 IDENTIFICATION

15.13 DISTURBANCE VARIABLES

15.14 MEASURES AND INDICATORS OF MODEL FIT

15.15 OVERALL MEASURES OF MODEL FIT

15.15.1 Root Mean Square Residual and Standardized Root Mean Square Residual

15.15.2 Root Mean Square Error of Approximation

15.16 MODEL COMPARISON MEASURES: INCREMENTAL FIT INDICES

15.17 WHICH INDICATOR OF MODEL FIT IS BEST?

15.18 STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODEL IN R

15.19 HOW ALL VARIABLES ARE LATENT: A SUGGESTION FOR RESOLVING THE MANIFEST‐LATENT DISTINCTION

15.20 THE STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODEL AS A GENERAL MODEL: SOME CONCLUDING THOUGHTS ON STATISTICS AND SCIENCE

15.21 CHAPTER SUMMARY AND HIGHLIGHTS

REVIEW EXERCISES

Further Discussion and Activities

Note

REFERENCES

INDEX

WILEY END USER LICENSE AGREEMENT

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Second Edition

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Such a question is open to debate, one that we will not have here. What needs to be acknowledged from the outset, however, is that statistical complexity has little, if anything, to do with scientific complexity or the guarantee of scientific advance. Indeed, the two may even rarely correlate. A classic scenario is that of the graduate student running an independent‐samples t‐test on well operationally defined experimental variables, yet feeling somewhat “embarrassed” that he used such a “simple” statistical technique. In the lab next door, another graduate student is using a complex structural equation model, struggling to make the model identifiable through fixing and freeing parameters at will, yet feeling as though she is more “sophisticated” scientifically as a result of her use of a complex statistical methodology. Not the case. True, the SEM user may be more sophisticated statistically (i.e., SEM is harder to understand and implement than t‐tests), but whether her empirical project is advancing our state of knowledge more than the experimental design of the student using a t‐test cannot even begin to be evaluated based on the statistical methodology used. It must instead be based on scientific merit and the overall strength of the scientific claim. Which scientific contribution is more noteworthy? That is the essential question, not the statistical technique used. The statistics used rarely have anything to do with whether good science versus bad science was performed. Good science is good science, which at times may require statistical analysis as a tool for communicating its findings.

In fact, much of the most rigorous science often requires the most simple and elementary of statistical tools. Students of research can often become dismayed and temporarily disillusioned when they learn that complex statistical methodology, aesthetic and pleasurable on its own that it may be (i.e., SEM models can be fun to work with), still does not solve their problems. Research wise, their problems are usually those of design, controls, and coming up with good experiments, arguments, and ingenious studies. Their problems are usually not statistical at all, and in this sense, an overemphasis on statistical complexity could actually delay their progress to conjuring up innovative, ground‐breaking scientific ideas.

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