Impact Evaluation of Energy Interventions

Impact Evaluation of Energy Interventions
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This report aims to support impact evaluation in the energy sector by assessing what has been produced against what might be possible. It reviews 85 impact evaluations of energy interventions in developing countries, summarizes findings on outcomes, identifies evidence gaps, and proposes ways forward. A majority of studies has so far focused on rural electrification and improved cookstoves, while most investments are in power generation and transmission. After considering the body of evidence available, directions and approaches are proposed for future impact evaluations to best contribute new evidence regarding the sector.

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David A. Raitzer. Impact Evaluation of Energy Interventions

IMPACT EVALUATION OF ENERGY INTERVENTIONS

Contents

Tables, Figures, and Boxes

Foreword

Acknowledgments

Abbreviations

Key Messages

1. Importance of Impact Evaluation in the Energy Sector

2. Types of Energy Sector Interventions

3. Theories of Change for Energy Interventions

4. The Challenges of Evaluating Impacts of Energy Interventions

5. Impact Evaluations to Date

6. Common Impact Evaluation Designs in the Energy Sector

7. Outcomes Measured

8. Evidence Gaps

9. Future Studies

10. Conclusions

References

APPENDIX 1: EXAMPLE CASE STUDIES OF ENERGY SECTOR IMPACT EVALUATIONS

Case Study 1

Brief Overview

Intervention Evaluated

Outcomes and Theory of Change Evaluated

Methods Used

Treatment and Control Groups

Data Analyzed

Sample Size

Key Findings

Case Study 2

Brief Overview

Intervention Evaluated

Outcomes and Theory of Change Evaluated

Methods Used

Treatment and Comparison Groups

Data Analyzed

Sample Size

Key Findings

Case Study 3

Brief Overview

Intervention Evaluated

Outcomes and Theory of Change Evaluated

Methods Used

Treatment and Comparison Groups

Data Analyzed

Sample Size

Key findings

APPENDIX 2: LIST OF ENERGY SECTOR IMPACT EVALUATIONS

APPENDIX 3: SUMMARY DESCRIPTIONS OF MAJOR IMPACT EVALUATION METHODS. Difference-in-Differences and Fixed Effects

Synthetic Controls

Propensity Score Matching and Weighting

Regression Discontinuity Design and Interrupted Time Series

Instrumental Variables and Endogenous Treatment Approaches

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A REVIEW OF THE EVIDENCE

David A. Raitzer, Nina Blöndal, and Jasmin Sibal

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Yet, many evidence gaps remain. Existing impact evaluation effort is mostly concentrated on rural electrification and improved cookstoves, even if most investments are in power generation and transmission. Other important areas of effort, such as energy efficiency, also have little impact evaluation to date. While many studies have evaluated effects of electricity access on education, far fewer have evaluated effects via intermediate services, such as health or agricultural extension facilities, and evidence on firms has remained limited.

With more big data increasingly available, it is hoped that the creative examples identified in this review can help to inspire new impact evaluation studies that address evidence gaps on energy. This work is more relevant than ever, as energy investments increasingly seek to experiment with innovations, high-level technologies, and behavioral change approaches to ensure sustainable, efficient, and inclusive use of energy. Continued efforts on impact evaluation will be critical to ensure that these experiments can be tested to generate evidence to improve energy operations over time. This review helps to show where future impact evaluation investments can best contribute new evidence and how such studies may be approached.

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