Оглавление
David Espindola. The Exponential Era
Table of Contents
List of Tables
List of Illustrations
Guide
Pages
THE EXPONENTIAL ERA. STRATEGIES TO STAY AHEAD OF THE CURVE IN AN ERA OF CHAOTIC CHANGES AND DISRUPTIVE FORCES
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
FOREWORD
Introduction
The Threat of Being Amazoned and Uberized
Elephants Dancing to a Faster Tempo
Where Is My Crystal Ball?
Trillion‐Dollar Platforms
Changing Wheels While the Car Is Running
Dealing with Chaos
Uncertainty Must Be Managed
The Premise Behind SPX
How This Book Is Organized
CHAPTER 1 The New Context for Our Future
The Future Is Not Your Brain's Priority
Exponentials Make Fools of Humans
The Phases of Exponential Progression
The Exponential Explosion
Moore's Law: The Observation that Changed the World
CHAPTER 2 Exponential Platforms: Convergences and Megatrends
Megatrends
Hyper Global Connectivity
A Longer and Healthier Life
Augmented and Virtual Worlds
Abundance
Upgraded Transportation
Instant Personalization
Digitization of Work
Automated Shopping
Radical Interfaces
Sustainable Environment
Exponential Platforms
Artificial Intelligence
Networks and Blockchain
Biotechnology
Quantum Computing
Internet of Things
3D Printing
Robotics
Material Science
CHAPTER 3 Animals of the Exponential Kingdom
Flash Boiled Frogs
Nokia
Blockbuster
Disruptive Unicorns
Airbnb
ByteDance
Fast and Furious Gazelles
Uber
Netflix
Dancing Elephants
IBM
Microsoft
Dominating Gorillas
Google
Amazon
CHAPTER 4 Introducing SPX: Strategic Planning for the Exponential Era
Convergence Research and Strategic Planning
The Manifesto that Changed How Software Is Built
Iterative Experiments in a Feedback Loop
Thinking Like a Designer
Getting Inside the Opponent's Head with OODA
A New Approach to Strategic Planning
Traditional Strategic Planning versus SPX
CHAPTER 5 Detecting Early Signals
If It Is Obvious to Everyone, It Has No Value
Research and Observation
Removing Barriers to Information Flow
Access Is the Name of the Game
Dealing with Uncertainty
Conducting Research
Predictive Analytics
Timing Analysis
CHAPTER 6 Learning from Experiments
Divergence and Convergence
Starting with Divergence
Moving into Convergence
Short Experiments
Risks and Opportunities Identification
Embracing Chaos and Bad News
CHAPTER 7 Capabilities – The Essential Fuel to Ride the Exponential Curve
Determine Capabilities
People
Process
Technology
Market
Capital
Develop Risk–Opportunity–Capability Map
Develop Priority List
CHAPTER 8 Feedback‐Based Strategic Decisions
Determine Scale and Scope
Explore Highest Priorities
Gather Data and Feedback
Scale or Terminate Initiatives
CHAPTER 9 Leading a Culture of Change
Exploration versus Exploitation – the Innovator's Dilemma
Amplifying Flow Through the Organization
Mobilizing the Organization Through an Inflection Point
Knowing When to Quit
Executive Engagement
Culture and Behaviors
Judgment
Curiosity
Innovation
Integrity
CHAPTER 10 The Exponential Human – Social and Ethical Challenges in a Chaotic World
The Workless Society
Education Reinvented
Global Synchronous Communications
New Ethics for a New Era
For My Children
A DISCUSSION ABOUT THE USE OF THE TERM EXPONENTIAL
NOTES AND REFERENCES. Introduction
Chapter 1 – The New Context for Our Future
Chapter 2 – Exponential Platforms: Convergences and Megatrends
Chapter 3 – Animals of the Exponential Kingdom
Chapter 4 – Introducing SPX: Strategic Planning for the Exponential Era
Chapter 5 – Detecting Early Signals
Chapter 6 – Learning from Experiments
Chapter 7 – Capabilities – The Essential Fuel to Ride the Exponential Curve
Chapter 8 – Feedback‐Based Strategic Decisions
Chapter 9 – Leading a Culture of Change
Chapter 10 – The Exponential Human – Social and Ethical Challenges in a Chaotic World
INDEX
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Praises for The Exponential Era
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Today there are at least 10 of these platforms, depending on how you categorize them, that have surfaced in the last few decades: Biotechnology, Nanotechnology, Autonomous Vehicles, Robotics, 3D Printing, Artificial Intelligence, Blockchain Technology, Augmented and Virtual Reality, and the Next Generation Internet. The latter contains several sub‐components such as Mobile Payment, Internet of Things (IoT), Online‐to‐Offline (O2O), and 5G. We will discuss many of these platforms in detail in Chapter 2.
These platforms are generating entirely new ecosystems and multi‐trillion‐dollar economies. Their convergences are creating a combinatorial power that is spawning ever‐increasing innovation and economic opportunities and threats across the globe. For example, today we see China leapfrogging to modern technologies like O2O, machine learning, and mobile payment. The latter has created a cashless ecosystem that has grown to 24 trillion dollars, almost twice the size of China's GDP. When these synergistic technologies with multi‐trillion‐dollar scope start converging and feeding on each other as we see in China, the explosive scale, scope, and speed of the Exponential Era become frighteningly obvious.9
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