Putin's Master Plan
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Douglas E. Schoen. Putin's Master Plan
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction
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Russian direct action against NATO looms on the horizon as Putin ratchets up his provocations in the Baltic States. Putin is betting that even if he were to attack Poland or a Baltic country, NATO and Europe would fail to respond, just as they failed to respond to the attacks on Georgia and Ukraine—even though in the case of Ukraine, the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 guaranteed the country’s territorial integrity.58 NATO members, especially the United States, must ask themselves the following questions: Are we willing to risk the lives of our sons and daughters to protect far-flung European countries that border Russia? Will Peoria really fight for Poland? Putin is determined to test the limits of the NATO alliance and push the partnership past its breaking point, leaving Europe defenseless against a re-armed Russia. Eventually, a miscalculated Russian attack on a NATO country could provoke a major European war—or even a world war.59
American and European leaders have been blindsided by Putin’s ruthless pursuit of power and influence. There has been an across-the-board leadership failure in the West. Sanctions against Russia have not gone nearly far enough and have not forced Putin to change course in Ukraine or warned him off from future aggression.60 Putin has provided separatists in Ukraine with a seemingly unending supply of tanks and heavy weapons, but President Obama prevaricated for months before offering Kiev nonlethal military assistance and a handful of advisors.61 Our European NATO allies, who have never carried the full burden of their own defense, have little to offer the Ukrainians in the way of hardware. What Europe can offer is financial relief and assistance as Ukraine’s economy continues to collapse, but so far, “the sums on offer from the outside world have been pitifully small,” as the Economist accurately notes.62 Meanwhile, sanction-strapped Russia has managed to direct millions of rubles to prop up the separatists.
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