A Time Traveller's Guide to Our Next Ten Years

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Frans Cronje. A Time Traveller's Guide to Our Next Ten Years

STEP 1 Decide what you want to achieve

STEP 2 Determine the level of contentment with the status quo

STEP 3 Establish whether major political and economic role players are able to change the future

STEP 4 Analyse the policy environment

STEP 5 Develop a structured list of trends

STEP 6 Identify highways to the future

STEP 7 Identify road signs and route markers

STEP 8 Rank trends by impact and uncertainty

STEP 9 Produce a matrix

STEP 10 Write the scenarios

Road signs along. HIGHWAY 1 The future of the ruling party

Road signs along. HIGHWAY 2 Citizens’ ability to change the government

Road signs along. HIGHWAY 3 The future of the South African economy

Road signs along. HIGHWAY 4 The capacity of the state to continue providing welfare

Road signs along. HIGHWAY 5 Economic policy

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A TIME TRAVELLER’S GUIDE TO

OUR NEXT TEN YEARS

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Playing with a hand grenade?

The implications of lower levels of GDP growth and investor uncertainty will be felt most acutely in the lives of ordinary people. Despite the government’s welfare and service delivery successes, formal levels of unemployment remain extremely high, averaging more than 25%. Among young black people, aged 15 to 24, the figure rises to more than 50%.[26] Only in 2004-2007, when GDP growth averaged more than 5%, did the country experience a sustained decline in the number and proportion of unemployed people.[27]

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