Оглавление
Gernot Wagner. Geoengineering
Contents
Guide
Pages
The Gamble
Copyright page
About the author
Introduction Start here – But don’t start with geoengineering
A long history of healthy skepticism
Narrowing down “geoengineering”
A possible role for carbon removal and solar geoengineering
Fast, cheap, and imperfect
A gamble worth exploring
Notes
1 Not if, but when
From “Free Rider” to “Free Driver”
“Free” is relative
Sand in the free driver’s gears
Who decides?
The geoengineering dilemma
What if geoengineering could lead to a more ambitious mitigation agreement?
Notes
2 What could possibly go wrong?
1. Effects on regional climate
2. Continued ocean acidification
3. Ozone depletion
4. Effects on plants
5. More acid deposition
6. Effects of cirrus clouds
7. Whitening of the sky (but nice sunsets)
8. Less sun for solar power
9. Environmental impacts of implementation
10. Rapid warming if deployment stops
11. There’s no going back
12. Human error
13. Undermining emissions mitigation
14. Cost
15 and 16. Commercial and military control of the technology
17. Conflicts with current treaties
18 and 19. Control of the thermostat and questions of moral authority
To: Chemtrail believers
20. Unexpected consequences
Notes
3 The drive to research
“Taboo” or hiatus?
Emerging from the shadows
A first outdoor experiment?
Too fast and/or too slow?
Research to what end?
Notes
Part II Scenarios. A warning
Notes
5 “Rational” climate policy
A quick reality check
Governance is key; what is governance?
Notes
5 A humanitarian cyclone crisis
A political emergency response rapidly gaining momentum
Notes
6 Millions of geoengineers
Covert at first and all-but unstoppable
Scenarios caught between is and ought
Notes
7 Green moral hazards
Moral hazards = politics
Moral hazards throughout environmental history
(Solar) geoengineering and moral hazard
Moral hazard and its inverse?
Education, education, education
Notes
8 Research governance
A moratorium now
An unapologetic call for research
Notes
Epilogue: The inevitable gamble
Notes
References
Index
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Отрывок из книги
Gernot Wagner
Of course, anyone who’s been paying attention to what’s happening with the rapidly changing climate will recognize that the world is currently playing a different kind of gamble with the planet, and arguably an even larger one.
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For now, let me just say that the who of solar geoengineering is very much in contention. More importantly, the who may not be a single actor, or even a single type of actor. It may also not be a single solar geoengineering method. Cutting CO2 is not monolithic. Carbon removal is not either. While solar geoengineering’s characteristics lend themselves best to one global, centrally coordinated method, the “rational” implementation policy, detailed in Chapter 4, is far from the only scenario, and it might be far from the most likely one.
The prisoner’s dilemma is famous for boiling down the conundrum of why two perfectly rational individuals – rational, that is, other than having committed the crimes that put them in this situation in the first place – act selfishly and tell on each other, even though cooperating would be better for them as a whole.25 Each player acts in their self-interest, given the circumstances. Both end up worse off as a result. It’s a simple manifestation of the free-rider phenomenon governing CO2 emissions cuts.
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