Оглавление
Группа авторов. Putin's Russia
PUTIN’S RUSSIA
PUTIN’S RUSSIA
Preface
About the Contributors
Contents
Chapter 1. Putin’s Muscovite Economy
Costs of Private Sector Anti-Competitiveness
Benefits of Public Transfers
Macroeconomic Management
Welfare
Performance, Potential and Prospects
Sources of Growth and Macroeconomic Stability
Misleading Benchmark
Tea Leaves and Productivity
Merit
References
Chapter 2. Russia’s Macroeconomy — A Closer Look at Growth, Investment and Uncertainty
Introduction
Growth. Actual growth since the start of transition
Are “normal” growth models relevant for Russia?
Investments
Capital Flows
Determinants of Returns and Volatility
Conclusions and Outlook
References
Chapter 3. State-Led Innovation and Uneven Adaptation in Russia
Evolution of Innovation Policy: Emergence of Long-term Strategy
State-Led Innovation Policy and Policy Changes
Results of Innovation Policy as Evidence
Unbalanced Technological Diffusion
Conclusion
References
Chapter 4. Fundamentals and Recent Trends in Russian Banking
Banking System in Crisis
Institutional Developments in the Banking Sector
The Role of State in the Banking Sector
Foreign Banks
Macroeconomic Indicators of Russia’s Banking Sector
Idiosyncratic Features of Russia’s Banking Sector
Conclusion
References
Chapter 5. Russian Health and Demographic Trends and Prospects
Introduction
Population Dynamics
Fertility
Mortality
Infectious diseases
Migration
Healthcare and Public Investment
Summary
References
Chapter 6. Can Russia Catch Up/Keep Up? Russian Science and Education in Putin’s Fourth Term
Conclusion
Postscript32
References
Chapter 7. Russian Defence: Economic Constraints and Potential
Decoding the Enigma: Soviet Era
Deciphering Soviet Economic and Defence Statistics
Decoding the Enigma: Today
Russian Economic Well-Being: Internalities and Externalities
Russian Guns and Butter Superpower
Great Arms Modernisation Drive, 2010–2015
Russia’s New Market-Powered VPK
Russia’s New Market-Powered Civilian Economy
Sustainable Growth
Economic Sanctions
Guns and Butter
Conclusion
References
Chapter 8. Military Potential Revisited
Introduction
What the New GDP Data Tell Us about the Value-Added of Russian Military Goods
Outstanding Issues
References
Chapter 9. Can Russia Sustain Its Defence Buildup?
Examining These Conclusions
Conclusions
References
Chapter 10. The Fighting Power of Russia’s Armed Forces
Introduction
Doctrine. Mission and tasks
Military threat posture
Nuclear and non-nuclear deterrence (containment)
Traditional Russian Doctrinal Views and Principles. Task of military science and military art — laws and principles
Teachings of Suvorov and Lenin
Correlation of forces
Forecasting
Svechin’s tactics, operations and strategy
Present views on repelling massed missile-air strikes
Gerasimov’s doctrine?
Surovikin’s proposals
Leadership and Organisation15. Command and control
President
Ministry of defence
General staff
Military districts
Service and separate troop branches
Ground forces
Units and formations
Airborne forces
Aerospace forces
Navy
Long-range precision weaponry
Electronic warfare
Strategic nuclear triad and non-strategic nuclear containment
Special operation forces (SSO)
Paramilitary formations and privatisation of armed forces
Russian private military companies
Operational capabilities
References
Chapter 11. On War and Peace: Russian Security Policy and Military-Strategic Thinking
Russian Security Policy and National Security
Decision-making
The doctrines
Threats to National Security — A View from Moscow
“Besieged Fortress”
Military Thinking on Current and Future War
Non-nuclear and Nuclear Deterrence
“The Blitzkrieg of the 21st Century”
Soft Power, Controlled Chaos and Colour Revolutions
Patriotism and the Role of History
Conclusions
References
Chapter 12. Russian International Relations: Russia’s Great Power Revival and Engagement with the Global Community
Introduction
Russia and the West. Ukraine and Crimea
Energy — The cornerstone of the new great game
The Baltic States
The visegrad group
Hungary
Poland
Slovakia and the Czech Republic
Eastern Europe. Bulgaria
Romania
Balkans. Serbia
Montenegro
Slovenia
US–NATO–EU–Russian Relations
American military forces in Europe and ballistic missile deployments in Central Europe/INF treaty
Russia and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation
Capabilities
Exercises
Current structure and the “long-arm” of Moscow
Russia and Asia. China
Belt and road initiative/one belt one road
Russia and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
North Korea
South Korea
Russia–India
Russia and the Middle East. Russian relations in the Middle East
Syrian conflict
Syria’s “Arab Spring”
Russia and Iran
Iraq
Turkey
Israel
Egypt
Saudi Arabia
Libya
Algeria
Russia and the Arctic
Russia and Latin America
Western Vulnerabilities
Conclusion
References
Chapter 13. Western Sanctions against Russia: How Do They Work?
Analytical Framework
A basic theoretical model
Factors affecting the success of economic sanctions
Sanctions Imposed on Russia
EU sanctions
The US sanctions against Russia
Key features of the EU and US sanctions
The Russian Economy
The effects of sanctions on the Russian economy
Estimates of the effect on Russian GDP
Russian policy responses
Effects on the Political Level
Politics vis-à-vis Ukraine
Conclusion
References
Chapter 14. Russia’s Arctic Policy: Between Confrontation in Europe and Irrelevance in Asia
Introduction
Natural Resources
Arctic Passage
Militarisation of the Arctic
Nuclear arsenal is a foundation for conventional power
Militarisation of the Eastern seaboard serves no purpose
Putin Takes the Arctic Personally
Reluctant Shifts and Risky Experiments
References
Chapter 15. Russia’s “Turn to the East”, 2012–2018
The Idea of Cooperation with the Non-West
Strengthening “Greater Eurasia” in Partnership with China
Rebuilding Influence in the Middle East
Assessment
Conclusion
References
Index
