NATO’s Enlargement and Russia

NATO’s Enlargement and Russia
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The Kremlin has sought to establish an exclusive Russian sphere of influence in the nations lying between Russia and the EU, from Georgia in 2008 to Ukraine in 2014 and Belarus in 2020. It has extended its control by means of military intervention, territorial annexation, economic pressure and covert activities. Moscow seeks to justify this behavior by referring to an alleged threat from NATO and the Alliance’s eastward enlargement. In the rhetoric of the Kremlin, NATO expansion is the main source for Moscow’s stand-off with the West.
This collection of essays and analyses by prominent politicians, diplomats, and scholars from the US, Russia, and Europe provides personal perspectives on the sources of the Russian-Western estrangement. They draw on historical experience, including the Russian-Western controversies that intensified with NATO's eastward expansion in the 1990s, and reflect on possible perspectives of reconcilitation within the renewed transatlantic relationship.


The volume touches upon alleged and real security guarantees for the countries of Eastern and Central Europe as well as past and current deficits in the Western strategy for dealing with an increasingly hostile Russia. Thus, it contributes to the ongoing Western debate on which policies towards Russia can help to overcome the deep current divisions and to best meet Europe’s future challenges.

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Группа авторов. NATO’s Enlargement and Russia

Foreword. A Europe “Whole and Free” Will Not Be Possible Without Russia

Note by the Series Editor

Introduction

The Messages

Constellations of Today and Tomorrow

Past and Present

The Contributions

Acknowledgements

Nuclear Deterrence. A Guarantee or Threat to Strategic Stability?1

The Genesis of Nuclear Deterrence

The Birth of the Concept of Strategic Stability

Modern Nuclear Doctrines

The Dichotomy of Nuclear Deterrence

The Collapse of Nuclear Arms Control

Renewing Strategic Stability and Arms Control

50 Years Ago: Kennedy, Brandt, Nixon. A Model for 21st Century Statecraft?

Erosion of the Cold War Coalition

Back to the Future?

A Model for Today?

Rebuilding Alliances

An Opportunity for Europe

The Importance of a European Return to NATO

Towards a Global Atlantic

An Agreement with No Name

Understanding Atlantic Alchemy

As Important as the Cold War

The Art of Under Promising

A Path, Not a Destination

Testing the Water in Berlin

Slow Start

Brandt’s New Narrative

A New Generation Takes the Stage

Small Steps on a Global Scale

Speeding Things Up

Quick Course in Diplomacy

A Flaw in the Text

Joint Strategic Vision

Lessons for the Future

A “Great Prize,” But Not the Main Prize. British Internal Deliberations on Not-Losing Russia, 1993–1995

A “Stable, Democratic and Cooperative Russia”—but “Cost Effectively”

Losing Russia Would Be Bad, but One Should “Prepare for Failure”

Little Influence over “a Source of Instability and Trouble”

Conclusion

The Clinton Administration and Reshaping Europe

The Cold War Comes to an End

Track I: Engage, then Enlarge

Track II: A Relationship with Russia

Track III: A Partnership with Ukraine

The Tracks Come Together in 1997

Outcomes

Was It Worth It?

Central European Security and Russia

Threat Perceptions and the Russia Factor in Central Europe. Historical Threat Perceptions

Threat Perceptions between 1989–2014

Threat Perceptions after 2014

The Russian Factor and Security and Defense Policies in Central Europe

Conclusion: Between Balancing and Neutrality

The Ukraine Conflict. Lessons for NATO, Kyiv and Their Future Relations

“Geopolitical” Interpretations

A Divided Public

NATO-Ukraine Relations

Lessons for NATO

Damage Control. The Breach of the Budapest Memorandum and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime

Russia’s Violation and Western Response

Ukraine’s Territorial Integrity and the NPT

The Budapest Memorandum and the NPT

The Non-Proliferation Regime’s Uncertain Future

Lost and Real Chances in Western-Ukrainian-Russian Relations. An Interview. Pavlo Klimkin

Strategic Decentering. Moscow’s Ideological Rhetoric and its Strategic Unconscious, 2012–2020

Balancing on the Brink of War—or Not?

The Collapse of Containment

Tactics of Postponed Escalation

To Whom Are the Escalations Being Addressed?

Demonic Plan or Newsbreaks?

Global Media in Russia’s Strategy

Flank Doctrine of Escalations

Creation of Uncertainty

Flank Unassailability

Safe Hacking

Projection of Influence Instead of Territorial Expansion

Creation of Enemies

Temporary Satellites

A Partner is a Resource Appendage

Neopopulism as a Coalition Against the Law-Governed World

The Abnormal Gold Standard of Behavior and Strange Allies

Hot Spots

Privatization of Decisions on the State of the World Order

Ill-Defined Financing of Strategic Projects

Grounds for Impunity

Punishment as a Mistake

2020: The Fall of Fame

A Crack in the Strategy

Foundations of Current and Future Security Relations Between Russia and NATO Member States. Narratives, Capabilities, Perceptions and Misperceptions

Russia in Western Narratives

Evolution of the Russia-NATO Military Balance

Russian Degradation, NATO Disarmament

NATO Enlargement, Russian Panic

Russian Resurgence, NATO Panic

Regional (Im)balances

Distorted Messages

The Way Forward

Cooperation vs. Confrontation. German-Russian Security Relations Between Geopolitical Poles

On the Misperception of Russia’s Foreign and Security Policies

Russian Military Policy and Moscow’s Approach Towards the West

Russian Threat Perception

The Main Points of the Basic Documents

Conclusions for the Russian Armed Forces

Internal Power Structure

Conclusions for German Policy

Concluding Remarks

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ibidem-Press, Stuttgart

Note by the Series Editor

.....

Liviu Horovitz bases his analysis of the NATO enlargement process on newly declassified archival documents. He argues that the role of idiosyncratic motives of particular Western governments during the enlargement processes of the 1990s has been underestimated. The commonly held assumption that NATO enlargement was a Western expansion to Eastern Europe, which exploited Russia’s weakness, continues to dominate. Horovitz reconstructs British internal deliberations between the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) and the Prime Minister’s Office. He reveals a desire for securing America’s place in Europe as the main motive of the British actors in the 1990s.

Steven Pifer offers an exceptionally deep insight into the Bill Clinton’s Administration’s hopes and aspirations after German reunification and the breakup of the Warsaw Pact. He traces three main tracks in “reshaping Europe,” including the evolution of relations of the US with former Warsaw Pact members, building a relationship between NATO and Russia, and the creation of a partnership between NATO and Ukraine. Pifer provides reflective criticism of all three of these tracks.

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