Space Physics and Aeronomy, Ionosphere Dynamics and Applications

Space Physics and Aeronomy, Ionosphere Dynamics and Applications
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A comprehensive review of global ionospheric research from the polar caps to equatorial regions 9; It's more than a century since scientists first identified the ionosphere, the layer of the Earth's upper atmosphere that is ionized by solar and cosmic radiation. Our understanding of this dynamic part of the near-Earth space environment has greatly advanced in recent years thanks to new observational technologies, improved numerical models, and powerful computing capabilities.9; Ionosphere Dynamics and Applications provides a comprehensive overview of historic developments, recent advances, and future directions in ionospheric research. Volume highlights include:9; Behavior of the ionosphere in different regions from the poles to the equator Distinct characteristics of the high-, mid-, and low-latitude ionosphere Observational results from ground- and space-based instruments Ionospheric impacts on radio signals and satellite operations How earthquakes and tsunamis on Earth cause disturbances in the ionosphere The American Geophysical Union promotes discovery in Earth and space science for the benefit of humanity. Its publications disseminate scientific knowledge and provide resources for researchers, students, and professionals.

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Группа авторов. Space Physics and Aeronomy, Ionosphere Dynamics and Applications

Table of Contents

List of Tables

List of Illustrations

Guide

Pages

Geophysical Monograph Series

Space Physics and Aeronomy Collection Volume 3. Geophysical Monograph 260. Ionosphere Dynamics and Applications

LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS

PREFACE

1 Magnetospheric Energy Input to the Ionosphere

ABSTRACT

1.1 INTRODUCTION

1.2 ENERGY ENTERING THE IONOSPHERE‐THERMOSPHERE (IT) SYSTEM. 1.2.1 Electromagnetic and Particle Energies

1.2.2 The Weimer Model

1.2.3 The Cosgrove Model

1.2.4 Assimilative Modeling of Ionospheric Electrodynamics (AMIE)

1.3 GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS (GCMS) OF MIT COUPLING

1.4 MODEL ASSESSMENT

1.5 JOULE HEATING

1.6 FUTURE DIRECTIONS. 1.6.1 New Data Analysis and Modeling Approaches

1.6.2 Wave Energy Input

1.7 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

REFERENCES

2 High Latitude Ionospheric Convection

ABSTRACT

2.1 INTRODUCTION

2.2 THE MAGNETOSPHERE‐IONOSPHERE SYSTEM

2.2.1 Morphology of the Magnetosphere‐Ionosphere System

2.2.2 Plasma Physics in the Magnetosphere‐Ionosphere System

2.3 STEADY‐STATE MAGNETOSPHERIC/IONOSPHERIC CONVECTION

2.3.1 Electrostatic Potential and Magnetic Flux Transport

2.3.2 Convection, Corotation, and Dawn‐Dusk Asymmetries

2.3.3 Magnetosphere/Ionosphere Current Systems

2.4 TIME‐DEPENDENT CONVECTION

2.4.1 The Expanding/Contracting Polar Cap Model

2.4.2 The Substorm Cycle and the ECPC

2.4.3 Lobe Reconnection

2.5 FURTHER READING

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

REFERENCES

3 Multiscale Dynamics in the High‐Latitude Ionosphere

ABSTRACT

3.1 INTRODUCTION

3.2 CUSP

3.3 POLAR CAP

3.4 NIGHTSIDE AURORAL OVAL

3.5 CROSS‐REGIONAL AND GLOBAL INTERACTION PROCESSES

3.6 SUMMARY

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

REFERENCES

4 Recent Advances in Polar Cap Density Structure Research

ABSTRACT

4.1 INTRODUCTION TO POLAR CAP DENSITY STRUCTURES

4.2 STATISTICAL OCCURRENCE RATE OF POLAR CAP PATCHES

4.3 PLASMA CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN THE POLAR CAP PATCHES

4.4 DYNAMIC EVOLUTION OF POLAR CAP PATCHES

4.5 ION UPFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH POLAR CAP HIGH‐DENSITY STRUCTURES

4.6 OPTICAL EMISSION MECHANISMS AND VARIABILITY OF POLAR CAP PATCHES

4.7 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

REFERENCES

5 Polar Cap O+ Ion Outflow and Its Impact on Magnetospheric Dynamics

ABSTRACT

5.1 POLAR CAP ION OUTFLOW. 5.1.1 The Classic Polar Wind

5.1.2 The Nonclassic Polar Wind

5.1.3 Drivers of the Nonclassic O+ Outflow

5.2 IMPACTS OF ION OUTFLOW ON MAGNETOSPHERIC DYNAMICS

5.2.1 The Landing of O+ Outflow in the Magnetosphere

5.2.2 Modes of Magnetospheric Convection

5.2.3 Magnetopause Reconnection

5.2.4 Magnetotail Reconnection

5.3 OUTSTANDING QUESTIONS

5.3.1 Multiscale Acceleration Mechanisms

5.3.2 The Role of Upper Thermosphere

5.3.3 Space‐Weather Effects

REFERENCES

6 Ionospheric Storm‐Enhanced Density Plumes

ABSTRACT

6.1 REVIEW OF IONOSPHERIC OBSERVATIONS OF STORM‐ENHANCED DENSITY

6.2 SED CHARACTERISTICS

6.3 SED FORMATION PROCESSES

6.4 SED PLASMA IN THE CUSP AND MAGNETOSPHERE

6.5 SUMMARY AND CURRENT STATUS

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

REFERENCES

7 Ion Outflow and Lobe Density: Interhemispheric Asymmetries

ABSTRACT

7.1 INTRODUCTION

7.2 ESTIMATING PLASMA DENSITY FROM SPACECRAFT POTENTIAL

7.2.1 Defining the Lobe

7.2.2 Factors Influencing Lobe Density

7.3 OBSERVATIONS AND DATA SET CHARACTERISTICS

7.4 NORTH‐SOUTH ASYMMETRIES

7.5 SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

REFERENCES

8 Mesoscale and Small‐Scale Structure of the Subauroral Geospace

ABSTRACT

8.1 INTRODUCTION

8.2 TURBULENT PLASMASPHERE BOUNDARY LAYER

8.3 IONOSPHERIC STRUCTURES

8.4 DISCUSSION. 8.4.1 Subauroral Density Trough

8.4.2 SAPS Wave Structures

8.4.3 Decameter‐Scale Irregularities

8.5 CONCLUSION

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

REFERENCES

APPENDIX

9 Equatorial Ionospheric Electrodynamics

ABSTRACT

9.1 INTRODUCTION

9.2 BASIC PRINCIPLES

9.3 QUIET‐TIME EQUATORIAL PLASMA DRIFTS

9.3.1 General Properties of Equatorial Plasma Drifts

9.3.2 Longitudinal Dependence

9.3.3 Altitudinal Variation

9.3.4 Quiet‐Time Variability

9.4 STORM‐TIME EQUATORIAL ELECTRIC FIELDS. 9.4.1 Introduction

9.4.2 Climatological Seasonal and Longitudinal Disturbance Effects

9.4.3 Model Studies of Equatorial‐Disturbance Drifts

9.5 FUTURE DIRECTIONS

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

REFERENCES

10 Theory and Modeling of Equatorial Spread F

ABSTRACT

10.1 INTRODUCTION

10.2 THEORY

10.3 MODELING

10.3.1 3‐D Space / 2‐D Potential Modeling

10.3.2 3‐D Space / 3‐D Potential Modeling

10.3.3 Data‐Driven Modeling

10.3.4 Global Modeling

10.4 NEW FINDINGS

10.5 SUMMARY AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

REFERENCES

11 Observations of Equatorial Spread F: A Working Hypothesis

ABSTRACT

11.1 INTRODUCTION

11.1.1 Background

Historical Perspective

Seeded Global System

Well‐Behaved Climatology

Broad Day‐to‐Day Variability

Working Hypothesis

Upwelling and EPBs

Source of D2D Variability?

Upwelling: A Large‐Scale Active Structure

Review Papers

11.1.2 Organization of Chapter

11.1.3 Interpretation of Plasma Structure

Ionogram Signatures

RSF

FSF

LT Dependence

Amplitude Scintillations

11.2 SOURCES, SEEDING, DRIVERS, AND LOADING. 11.2.1 Overview

11.2.2 Interchange Instability

11.2.3 Collisional‐Shear Instability

11.2.4 Seeding: AGWs and Neutral‐Ion (N‐I) Coupling. Overview

Basic N‐I Coupling

ITCZ and Dip Equator

Maps of Deep Convective Activity

Ocean Source for AGWs?

11.2.5 Electric Field. PRE

PSSR or Upwelling Growth?

11.2.6 Neutral Wind. Overview

Wind Sources

Retrograde Flow?

Suppression by Meridional U

Shorter‐Term Variations

11.2.7 Planetary‐Wave Effects

11.3 CLIMATOLOGY OF ESF. 11.3.1 Overview

PSSR Dependence

Declination Control

Topside ESF

11.3.2 DMSP

DMSP Climatology

Seasonal Dependence on Longitude

Persistence of Climatology

Asymmetry During Solstices

Asymmetries During Equinoxes

Displaced Islands

Low Solar Activity

11.3.3 AE‐E

Comparison with DMSP

11.3.4 ROCSAT‐1

11.3.5 C/NOFS

11.4 DAY‐TO‐DAY VARIABILITY OF ESF

11.4.1 Upwelling Paradigm. Working Hypotheses

Classic Paradigm

Radar Paradigm

Upwelling Paradigm

11.4.2 Stage 1: Seeding and N‐I Coupling

Electric‐Field Perturbations

Vertical Coupling and Preferred Scales

11.4.3 Stage 2: Upwelling Growth (SSE)

Upwelling and BT Echoes

Precursor of ESF Onset

11.4.4 Validation of Stage 2

11.4.5 Stage 3: EPB Development (SSF)

11.4.6 Stage 4: Evolution and Decay (F‐Layer Descent)

Drifting Upwellings, Patches, EPBs

OGC Paths

11.4.7 Another Seed Source?

11.4.8 EPBs Without Upwellings?

Westward‐Drifting BT Echoes

Rotational Transport

Interpretation

Heavy‐Ion Layer?

11.4.9 Highlights of Upwelling Paradigm

11.5 WHAT ABOUT LOW SOLAR ACTIVITY? 11.5.1 Overview. Discovery of Dawn EPBs

Polarization E in PMN EPBs

Pre‐Midnight Seeding?

11.5.2 Ionosonde Results. ESF Climatology

RSF Versus FSF

11.5.3 PMN Radar Echoes and Scintillations

Basic Appearance of PMN Echoes

Altitude‐Extended Exceptions

11.5.4 Seeding and Upwelling Growth

11.5.5 Summary and Interpretation

11.6 DISCUSSION. 11.6.1 Importance of Upwelling Description

11.6.2 What Is Source of Upwelling Growth?

Velocity Shear?

11.6.3 Seeding

11.6.4 EPB Development. High Solar Activity

Low Solar Activity

11.6.5 Day‐to‐Day Variability. Upwelling Effects

Tidal U Effects

Planetary Wave Effects

11.6.6 BT Echoes and Heavy‐Ion Layer

11.6.7 What Next?

PSSR and Upwelling Monitor

Meridional Wind

11.7 OUTSTANDING QUESTIONS

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

REFERENCES

12 The Equatorial Electrojet

ABSTRACT

12.1 HISTORICAL OBSERVATIONS

12.2 MAGNETIC SIGNATURES AND CURRENT DENSITY PROFILES

12.3 ELECTRODYNAMICS DESCRIPTION AND MODELING OF THE EEJ

12.3.1 Physics Based Modeling

12.3.2 Empirical Modeling

12.4 CLIMATOLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE EEJ

12.5 TIDAL FEATURES OF THE EEJ

12.6 THE COUNTER‐ELECTROJET

12.7 SUMMARY AND OPEN ISSUES

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

REFERENCES

13 Equatorial Ionization Anomaly Variations During Geomagnetic Storms

ABSTRACT

13.1 INTRODUCTION

13.2 MAJOR MECHANISMS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EQUATORIAL IONOSPHERIC RESPONSE TO THE MAGNETIC STORMS

13.2.1 Contribution of E×B Drifts

13.2.2 Roles of Neutral Winds and the Neutral Composition

13.3 VARIATIONS OF THE IONOSPHERIC STORM EFFECTS IN THE EQUATORIAL AND LOW LATITUDE REGIONS

13.3.1 Longitudinal/Local Time and Hemispheric Dependence of the Storm Effects

13.3.2 Ionospheric Response to Storms at Different Altitudes

13.3.3 Interaction Between the Ionospheric Storm Effects and Lower Atmospheric Activities

13.4 CHALLENGES AND UNSOLVED ISSUES

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

REFERENCES

14 Penetration of the Magnetospheric Electric Fields to the Low Latitude Ionosphere

ABSTRACT

14.1 TECHNIQUES TO OBSERVE THE PENETRATION ELECTRIC FIELD

14.2 CONVECTION AND SHIELDING ELECTRIC FIELDS

14.2.1 Region‐1 and ‐2 Field‐Aligned Current Dynamos

14.2.2 DP2 Ionospheric Currents

14.2.3 Shielding Electric Field

14.2.4 DP2 Currents by R1 and R2 FACs

14.2.5 Arguments over the DP2

14.2.6 Evening Anomaly of the Penetration Electric Field

14.3 PENETRATION OF ELECTRIC FIELDS DURING SUBSTORMS. 14.3.1 Overshielding During Expansion Phase

14.3.2 Arguments Over the Substorm Overshielding

14.4 PENETRATION OF ELECTRIC FIELDS DURING GEOMAGNETIC STORMS. 14.4.1 Main Phase Electric Field and Midlatitude DP2

14.4.2 Arguments Over the Stormtime Electric Field

14.4.3 Electric Field Effects on the Ionosphere

14.5 TRANSMISSION MECHANISM

14.5.1 Current Circuit in the Magnetosphere and Ionosphere

14.5.2 Horizontal Propagation in the E‐ and F‐Regions

14.5.3 Direct Propagation Through the Magnetosphere

14.5.4 TM0 Mode Wave in the Earth‐Ionosphere Waveguide

14.5.5 Attenuation due to Finite Conductivity

14.5.6 Geometrical Attenuation and Cowling Currents

14.5.7 Magnetosphere–Ionosphere–Ground Transmission Line

14.6 SUMMARY AND ISSUES

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

REFERENCES

15 Ionosphere and Thermosphere Coupling at Mid‐ and Subauroral Latitudes

ABSTRACT

15.1 INTRODUCTION

15.2 IONOSPHERIC RESPONSES TO THERMOSPHERIC NEUTRAL WINDS

15.2.1 Zonal Wind and Declination Effects on Ionospheric Longitudinal Variations

East–West Difference over the Continental US

Other Longitude Sectors

Stormtime Signatures

Global Patterns of Midlatitude Longitudinal Variations

15.2.2 The Midlatitude Summer Night Ionosphere

Neutral Wind and Magnetic Field Configuration Effect

Plasma Diffusion

Polarization Electric Field at Terminator

Longitudinal Variations in Neutral Winds and Composition

Other Processes

15.3 THERMOSPHERIC VARIATIONS DRIVEN BY IONOSPHERIC DYNAMICS

15.3.1 Main Stormtime I/T Coupling Phenomena

15.3.2 High Latitude Thermospheric Wind Circulation and Ionospheric Influences

15.3.3 Subauroral Neutral Wind Responses to Ionospheric Disturbances

15.4 INFLUENCES FROM BELOW

15.5 SUMMARY

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

REFERENCES

16 Sudden Stratospheric Warming Impacts on the Ionosphere–Thermosphere System: A Review of Recent Progress

ABSTRACT

16.1 INTRODUCTION

16.2 SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS. 16.2.1 Phenomenology of SSW

16.2.2 SSW Definitions and Characteristics

16.2.3 Mechanisms Producing SSW

16.2.4 Coupling of SSW to Other Atmospheric Layers

16.3 SSW EFFECTS ON THE THERMOSPHERE

16.3.1 Local Time Dependencies

16.3.2 Zonal Mean Effects

Meridional Circulation

Thermal Structure

16.3.3 Global Cooling Effect

16.3.4 Relative Contributions of SSW and Geomagnetic Storms

16.4 IONOSPHERIC RESPONSE

16.4.1 Low‐Latitude Ionosphere

15.3.2 Variations of SSW Response with Solar Activity

15.3.3 Longitudinal Features in Ionospheric Response to SSW

15.4 Tidal Effects in Ionospheric Features

15.5 Other SSW‐Related Ionospheric Phenomena

16.4.2 Mid‐Latitude Ionosphere

16.4.3 High‐Latitude Ionosphere

16.5 NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS

16.5.1 Progress in Numerical Simulations of SSW Effects in the Ionosphere and Thermosphere

16.5.2 Coupling Mechanisms

Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere

Low‐Latitude Ionosphere

Mid‐Latitude Ionosphere

Thermosphere

16.6 OUTSTANDING ISSUES AND CONCLUDING REMARKS

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

REFERENCES

17 Ionospheric Dynamics and Their Strong Longitudinal Dependences

ABSTRACT

17.1 INTRODUCTION

17.2 MID‐LATITUDE IONOSPHERE STRUCTURES

17.2.1 SED Plume and its Longitudinal Dependences

17.2.2 Mid‐Latitude Plasma Irregularities

17.3 GLOBAL EQUATORIAL IONOSPHERE DYNAMICS AND STRUCTURES

17.3.1 Low‐Latitude Plasma Irregularities

17.3.2 Low‐Latitude Irregularity Distributions and Their Longitudinal Dependences

17.4 LONGITUDINAL DEPENDENCE OF VERTICAL DRIFT

17.4.1 Forcing from below and its Longitudinal Variability

Gravity Waves (GWs)

LSWS and Irregularity

17.5 SUMMARY AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

REFERENCES

18 Medium‐Scale Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances

ABSTRACT

18.1 INTRODUCTION

18.2 ELECTRIFIED MEDIUM‐SCALE TRAVELING IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES. 18.2.1 Two‐Dimensional Observations of EMSTID

18.2.2 Electric Fields Associated with EMSTIDs

18.2.3 Brief Explanation of the Perkins Instability

18.2.4 Vertical Structure of EMSTID

18.2.5 E‐ and F‐Region Coupling

18.2.6 Longitudinal Variation and Interhemispheric Coupling of EMSTIDs

18.3 MSTIDS INDUCED BY UPWARD‐PROPAGATING GRAVITY WAVES. 18.3.1 Daytime MSTIDs

18.3.2 Vertical Structure of Gravity Wave‐Induced TID

18.3.3 Gravity Waves Propagating into the Thermosphere

18.3.4 Seasonal Variations of the Daytime MSTIDs

18.4 DISCUSSION

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

REFERENCES

19 Ionospheric Effects on HF Radio Wave Propagation

ABSTRACT

19.1 INTRODUCTION

19.2 HF PROPAGATION IN THE UNDISTURBED IONOSPHERE. 19.2.1 Introduction

19.2.2 Radar Equation

19.2.3 Propagation Modes

19.2.4 Focusing/Defocusing Effects

19.2.5 Absorption

19.2.6 Noise and Interference

19.2.7 Ray Tracing: Applications and Examples

19.3 EFFECTS OF IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES ON HF INSTRUMENTS

19.3.1 Reality and Median Models

19.3.2 Large‐Scale Spatial Variations in the Ionosphere. The Equatorial Anomaly

Solar Terminator Effects

Tidal Effects

Gradients and Off‐Great‐Circle Propagation

Large‐Scale Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances

19.3.3 Smaller Spatial‐ and Temporal‐Scale Disturbances

19.3.4 Spread F

19.3.5 Geomagnetic Stormtime Effects

19.4 SPORADIC‐E

19.5 SUMMARY

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

REFERENCES

20 Ionospheric Scintillation Effects on Satellite Navigation

ABSTRACT

20.1 INTRODUCTION

20.2 NAVIGATION SYSTEM PERFORMANCE CRITERIA

20.3 STAND‐ALONE GNSS STANDARD POSITIONING SERVICE. 20.3.1 Traditional GNSS Receiver Processing

20.3.2 Effects of Scintillation on GNSS Receiver Processing

20.3.3 Fading across Frequency Bands and Constellations

20.4 SATELLITE‐BASED AUGMENTATION SYSTEMS (SBAS) 20.4.1 SBAS Architecture

20.4.2 Scintillation Effects on SBAS Monitoring Network

20.4.3 Scintillation Effects on User Receivers

20.5 GROUND‐BASED AUGMENTATION SYSTEMS (GBAS) 20.5.1 GBAS Architecture

20.5.2 Scintillation Effects on Reference Stations

20.5.3 Scintillation Effects on Airborne Receivers

20.6 FINAL COMMENTS

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

REFERENCES

21 Ionospheric Disturbances Related to Earthquakes

ABSTRACT

21.1 INTRODUCTION

21.2 GNSS‐TEC OBSERVATIONS. 21.2.1 Phase Difference and TEC

21.2.2 From STEC to VTEC

21.2.3 Isolation of Earthquake‐Origin Signals

21.3 COSEISMIC IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES. 21.3.1 General Description

21.3.2 Near‐Field Disturbance

21.3.3 Atmospheric Resonance

21.3.4 Directivity

21.3.5 Magnitude Dependence

21.3.6 Far Field Disturbance

21.4 PRESEISMIC IONOSPHERIC ANOMALIES. 21.4.1 Discovery and Brief History of Debate

21.4.2 3D Distribution of the Anomalies

21.4.3 Magnitude Dependence and Shapes of Preseismic Signatures

21.5 CONCLUDING REMARKS

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

REFERENCES

22 Atmospheric and Ionospheric Disturbances Caused by Tsunamis

Abstract

22.1 INTRODUCTION

22.2 ACOUSTIC‐GRAVITY WAVE THEORY

22.3 ATMOSPHERIC WAVE GENERATION BY TSUNAMIS

22.4 TID AND AIRGLOW DISTURBANCE THEORY

22.5 TID AND AIRGLOW DISTURBANCE OBSERVATIONS

22.6 GRAVITY WAVE‐TID MODELING

22.7 OUTSTANDING ISSUES: CHALLENGES AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS

22.8 SUMMARY

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

REFERENCES

INDEX

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212 The Early Earth: Accretion and Differentiation James Badro and Michael Walter (Eds.)

.....

The models were divided into physics‐based (models 1–5 of the list above), or empirical (models 6 and 7 of the list above). Results of the comparison varied for the six selected events, which ranged from a relatively small storm event with the minimum in Dst of ‐40 nT, to the Halloween storm with Dstmin of ‐353 nT. Figures 1.7 and 1.8, reproduced from Figures 6 and 11 by Rastaetter et al. (2016), show the model versus data for the Halloween storm (29–30 October 2003) when Dst was ‐353 nT, and an interval from 9–12 July 2005 when Dstmin was ‐89 nT, respectively. We use these examples as illustrations of a strongly driven superstorm as the Halloween storm was, and an event of sustained low magnetic activity in July 2005 for contrast. In the figures, physics‐based models are at left (panels (a) through (d)), empirical models are at right (panels (e) through (g)). The Poynting flux or Joule heating integrated along the DMSP orbit track poleward of auroral latitudes are shown by different colored symbols in the upper panels. F15 Poynting flux observations are shown as solid black symbols connected with straight black lines. Vertical gray bars indicate the 25% uncertainty in the measurements. The comparison between integrated model and observed Poynting flux is shown in panels (a) and (e).

Figure 1.7 Summary of integrated values over auroral passes for event 1, on 29–30 October 2003: (a)–(d) Physics based and (e)–(h) empirical models. (a)–(c) Scores for physics‐based models: (a) Poynting flux or Joule heat integrated over full auroral passes (black symbols connected with black solid line are observations), ratio of model values to observed values constitute the Integrated value Yield (IYI). (b) Model Amplitude Yields YI (maximum Poynting flux or Joule heat divided by observed maximum Poynting flux) shown in base 2 logarithmic (ld) scaling for two pass segments (diamonds: evening side and crosses: morning side); in this scaling ld(1) = 0 is the perfect score. (c) Timing errors of maximum signal (time of model maximum minus time of observed maximum) for two segments of each pass of auroral region (symbols denote the same pass segments as Figure 1.6b). (d)Dst index; (e)–(g) Scores for empirical models: (e) Integrated Poynting flux or Joule heat, (f ) amplitude yields, (g) timing errors, and (h) AL index

.....

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