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Группа авторов. Extreme Events and Climate Change
Table of Contents
List of Tables
List of Illustrations
Guide
Pages
Extreme Events and Climate Change. A Multidisciplinary Approach
CONTRIBUTORS
PREFACE
REFERENCES
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
1 Synthesizing Observed Impacts of Extreme Weather Events Across Systems
ABSTRACT
1.1. A REASON FOR CONCERN
1.2. OF TRUTHS AND TRIVIALITIES
1.2.1. Weather Extremes or Impact Extremes?
1.2.2. Detection and Attribution
1.2.3. Finding a Common Currency
1.2.4. The Arithmetic of Synthesis
1.2.5. Is There Power in Numbers?
1.3. SYNTHESIZING ACROSS EVERYTHING
1.4. IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FUTURE
REFERENCES
2 The Impact of Heat Waves on Agricultural Labor Productivity and Output
ABSTRACT
2.1. CALIFORNIA AGRICULTURE
2.1.1. Production
2.1.2. Employment
2.2. EXTREME EVENTS AND CLIMATE CHANGE: HEAT INDEX
2.3. HEAT WAVES AND AGRICULTURAL LABOR
2.4. CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
2.5. DATA SOURCES AND DESCRIPTION
2.6. EMPIRICAL ESTIMATION AND RESULTS
2.7. CONCLUSIONS
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
APPENDIX 2.1
REFERENCES
3 Weather Extremes That Affect Various Agricultural Commodities
ABSTRACT
3.1. INTRODUCTION
3.2. COMMIDITY GROUPINGS
3.2.1. Citrus
3.2.2. Dairy and Beef Cattle
3.2.3. Field Fruits (Strawberries and Cucurbits)
3.2.4. Field Vegetables (Carrot, Cole, Lettuce, Potato, Spinach)
3.2.5. Grapes
3.2.6. Maize
3.2.7. Nursery and Greenhouse
3.2.8. Rice
3.2.9. Soybean
3.2.10. Tomato
3.2.11. Deciduous Tree Fruits (Stone and Pome)
3.2.12. Deciduous Tree Nuts (Almond, Pistachio, Persian Walnut)
3.2.13. Wheat
3.3. CONCLUSIONS
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
REFERENCES
4 Economics of the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture
ABSTRACT
4.1. INTRODUCTION
4.2. LAND ALLOCATION BEFORE CLIMATE CHANGE
4.3. CROP MIGRATION AFTER CLIMATE CHANGE
4.3.1. Crop Switching Under the Assumption of Fixed Output Prices
Proposition 1:
4.3.2. Land Development and Desertification
Proposition 2:
4.3.3. The Price Effect
Proposition 3:
4.3.4. The Role of the Transition Cost
Proposition 4:
4.4. WELFARE IMPLICATIONS
4.4.1. Social Surplus
Proposition 5:
4.4.2. Consumer Surplus Versus Producer Surplus. 4.4.2.1. Consumer Surplus
Proposition 6:
4.4.2.2. Producer Surplus
Proposition 7:
4.4.2.3. Welfare Redistribution After Climate Change
4.5. CONCLUSION
APPENDIX A
REFERENCES
NOTES
5 Agricultural Losses in a Telecoupled World: Modeling the Impacts of Regional Crop Failures on Global Land Use
ABSTRACT
5.1. INTRODUCTION
5.2. BACKGROUND
5.2.1. Changing Agricultural Landscapes
5.2.2. Agricultural Changes and Land Use Under Climate Change
5.2.3. Conceptual Framework for Land Use Change
5.3. MODELING IMPACTS OF BREADBASKET FAILURES
5.3.1. Integrated Assessment Models
5.3.2. Scenario Structure
5.4. RESULTS: IMPACTS OF BREADBASKET FAILURE ON GLOBAL LAND USE
5.4.1. The Reference and RCP 4.5 Scenarios
5.4.2. Scenarios of Agricultural Shocks
5.5. DISCUSSION
5.6. CONCLUSIONS
REFERENCES
NOTE
6 Perceptions of Extreme Weather Events and Adaptation Decisions: A Case Study of Maize and Bean Farmers in Guatemala and Honduras
ABSTRACT
6.1. INTRODUCTION
6.2. METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH
6.2.1. Landscape Selection and Data Collection
6.2.2. Perceptions of Exposure and Sensitivity
6.2.3. Identification of Factors Related to the Implementation of Adaptation Measures
6.2.4. Effectiveness of the Adaptations Implemented to Reduce Vulnerability
6.3. RESULTS
6.3.1. Perceptions of Exposure and Impacts
6.3.2. Implementation of Adaptation Measures Following Extreme Weather Events
6.3.3. Perception of the Effectiveness of Adaptation to Reduce Vulnerability
6.4. CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY‐RELATED IMPLICATIONS
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS AND DATA
REFERENCES
APPENDIX
7 Simulation Model Based on Agents for Land Use Change and Cost‐Benefit Analysis of Land Management Policies
ABSTRACT
7.1. INTRODUCTION
7.2. FORMULATION OF SIMBACUS
7.3. DECISIONS OF THE AGENTS (INDIVIDUALS)
7.4. SIMULATION
7.4.1. Initial Conditions
7.4.2. Description of the Execution
7.5. RESULTS
7.5.1. Simulating the Impacts of the Implementation of a Poet in Pachuca
7.5.2. Simulating the Impacts of Different Population Growth Rates in Pachuca
7.6. CONCLUSIONS
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
REFERENCES
NOTES
8 Climate Extremes, Political Participation, and Migration Intentions of Farmers: A Case Study in Western China
ABSTRACT
8.1. INTRODUCTION
8.2. LITERATURE REVIEW: EXPERIENCE OF CLIMATE EXTREMES, POLITICAL PARTICIPATION, AND MIGRATION INTENTION
8.2.1. Experience of Climate Extremes and Migration Intention
8.2.2. Political Participation, Adaptation, and Migration Intention
8.2.3. Other Determinants of Migration Intention
8.3. METHODOLOGY
8.3.1. Research Framework: Experience of Climate Extremes, Political Participation, and Migration Intention at the Household Level
8.3.1.1. Goal Intention and Implementation Intention
8.3.1.2. Multistaged Decision‐Making Process of Climate Adaptation and Migration
8.3.1.3. Conceptual Framework of the Relationship Between the Experience of Climate Extremes and Migration Intention
8.3.2. Research Setting
8.3.3. Data Collection
8.4. ANALYSIS: A MODELING APPROACH TO ASSESS THE RELATIONSHIPS AMONG THE EXPERIENCE OF CLIMATE EXTREMES, POLITICAL PARTICIPATION, AND MIGRATION INTENTIONS
8.4.1. Dependent Variables
8.4.1.1. Dependent Variables in Stage 1: Experience of the Impacts of Climate Extremes on Livelihoods
8.4.1.2. Dependent Variables in Stage 2: Migration Intention
8.4.2. Independent Variables
8.4.3. Control Variables
8.4.4. Implementing the Two‐Stage Regression Models
8.5. RESULTS
8.5.1. Goal Intentions
8.5.2. Implementation Intentions: Choice Between Intra‐Provincial and Inter‐Provincial Destinations
8.5.3. Implementation Intentions: Destination Choice Between Rural and Urban Settings
8.6. DISCUSSION
8.7. CONCLUSION
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
REFERENCES
9 Effects of Extreme Weather Events on Internal Migration in Rural Guatemala
ABSTRACT
9.1. INTRODUCTION
9.2. DATA
9.3. ECONOMETRIC SPECIFICATION
9.4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
9.5. CONCLUSIONS
REFERENCES
NOTES
10 Extreme Heat Exposure and Occupational Health in a Changing Climate
ABSTRACT
10.1. INTRODUCTION
10.2. METRICS AND MONITORING USED TO ASSESS OCCUPATIONAL HEAT STRESS
10.2.1. Select Direct Heat Metrics Used in Occupational Heat Exposure Studies
10.2.2. Select Empirical Heat Metrics Used in Occupational Heat Exposure Studies
10.2.3. Select Rational Heat Metrics Used in Occupational Heat Exposure Studies
10.2.4. Challenges in Measuring Individual‐Level Occupational Heat Exposure
10.3. REPORTS ON HEAT EXPOSURE: LOW‐ AND MIDDLE‐INCOME COUNTRIES (LMICS)
10.3.1. Low‐ and Middle‐Income Regions: Indoor and Outdoor Exposures Related to Work Capacity
10.4. OCCUPATIONAL HEAT STRESS AND RELATED HEALTH CONCERNS
10.4.1. The Body’s Response to Heat
10.4.2. Occupational Heat Illness and Mortality Reports
10.4.3. Individual Factors and Quality of Life
10.5. WORK CAPACITY, PRODUCTIVITY, AND ECONOMIC IMPACT
10.6. STRATEGIES FOR PREVENTION OF HEAT IMPACTS THROUGH MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE‐RELATED HEAT STRESS IN THE WORKPLACE
10.6.1. Mitigation of Heat Exposure
10.6.2. Adaptation to Changing Heat Extremes
10.7. CONCLUSIONS
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS, SAMPLES, AND DATA
REFERENCES
11 Tropical Cyclone Impacts
ABSTRACT
11.1. INTRODUCTION
11.2. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTING
11.2.1. Forecasting Tropical Cyclone Tracks
11.2.2. Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting
11.2.3. Wind Radii Forecasting
11.3. TROPICAL CYCLONE PHYSICAL IMPACTS
11.3.1. Hurricane Winds
11.3.2. Storm Surge Flooding
11.3.3. Tornadoes
11.3.4. Rainfall Flooding
11.3.5. Clearing the Confusion on 100‐ and 1,000‐Year Floods
11.3.6. Tropical Cyclones in a Warmer World
11.4. SOCIETAL IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONES
11.4.1. Before the Storm: Evacuation Decisions
11.4.2. After the Storm: Hazards and Monetary Losses
11.5. CONCLUSIONS
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
REFERENCES
12 On the Relationship Between Heat Waves and Extreme Precipitation in a Warming Climate
ABSTRACT
12.1. INTRODUCTION
12.2. DATA
12.2.1. Observations and Reanalysis
12.2.2. Convection‐Allowing Climate Simulations
12.3. METHODS
12.3.1. Heat Wave Definition
12.3.2. Precipitation Events
12.4. CASE STUDY RESULTS
12.4.1. Responsible Mechanisms
12.4.2. Projected Event Precipitation Changes
12.5. FUTURE CLIMATE PROJECTIONS
12.5.1. Global Warming and Heat Waves
12.5.2. Moisture and Precipitation
12.6. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
REFERENCES
13 Evaluating Economic Output at Risk to Climate Change: A Sectoral Comparison of Economic Sensitivity to Weather
ABSTRACT
13.1. INTRODUCTION
13.2. LITERATURE REVIEW
13.3. METHODS
13.3.1. Econometric Specification
13.3.2. Data
13.4. RESULTS
13.5. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPLICATIONS
13.6. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION
REFERENCES
NOTE
INDEX
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