War Time

War Time
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Perceptions of time contributed to recent Western military failings The “decline of the West” is once again a frequent topic of speculation. Often cited as one element of the alleged decline is the succession of prolonged and unsuccessful wars—most notably those waged in recent decades by the United States. This book by three Danish military experts examines not only the validity of the speculation but also asks why the West, particularly its military effectiveness, might be perceived as in decline. Temporality is the central concept linking a series of structural fractures that leave the West seemingly muscle-bound: overwhelmingly powerful in technology and military might but strategically fragile. This temporality, the authors say, is composed of three interrelated dimensions: trajectories, perceptions, and pace. First, Western societies to tend view time as a linear trajectory, focusing mostly on recent and current events and leading to the framing of history as a story of rise and decline. The authors examine whether the inevitable fall already has happened, is underway, or is still in the future. Perceptions of time also vary across cultures and periods, shaping socio-political activities, including warfare. The enemy, for example, can be perceived as belong to another time (being “backward” or “barbarian”). And war can be seen either as cyclical or exceptional, helping frame the public’s willingness to accept its violent and tragic consequences. The pace of war is another factor shaping policies and actions. Western societies emphasize speed: the shorter the war the better, even if the long-term result is unsuccessful. Ironically, one of the Western world’s least successful wars also has been America’s longest, in Afghanistan. This unique book is thus a critical assessment of the evolution and future of Western military power. It contributes much-needed insight into the potential for the West’s political and institutional renewal.

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Группа авторов. War Time

Contents

Foreword

Acknowledgments

Introduction

Trajectories: The Fate of the West

Perceptions: Western Thought and International Norms

Pace: Imposing Speed on War

The Structure of the Book

NOTES

PART I

The Western Experience in Balancing Liberal and Military Virtues

NOTES

ONE. The Modern State

War and State Development

The Rise of the Extractive State

Status Quo Ante: Militarism without Civic Grounding

Conclusion

NOTES

TWO. Making Time an Ally

Prediction and Paradox

The Hype behind Hyperwar

Speed, Pace, and Maintaining Policy Primacy

Recommendations for Policymakers and Strategists

NOTES

THREE. Benefit or Burden?

The Evolution of NATO Partnership

The International Security Assistance Force (ISAF)

Operation Unified Protector

Article 5: A Role for Partners?

In Defense of Liberal Values

NOTES

FOUR. The Future of the West

Brussels, September 2024

Berlin, November 2024

Washington, DC, April 2025

Warsaw, June 2025

London, July 2025

Paris, August 2025

NATO and the West beyond 2025: Demise or Renewal?

NOTES

PART II

A Normative Order under Pressure

NOTES

FIVE. Civilian Casualties and Contemporary Coalition Operations

Preventing Civilian Casualties as a Strategic Imperative

Norms and Civilian Harm

Context: Establishing NATO’s International Security Assistance Force (ISAF)

Missing: Campaign Coherence?

Missing: Campaign Continuity?

Missing: Coherent Strategy?

Conclusions

NOTES

SIX. Conflicting Norms of Intervention

Existing Norms on the Use of Force

Humanitarian Intervention and the Responsibility to Protect

Russian Attitudes

China’s Approach

India’s Position

The Perspective of the RIC States

Conclusion

NOTES

SEVEN. In the Shadows

Emerging Challenges to the Western Understanding and Practice of War

The Western Perception of Contemporary War

The Russian Perception of Contemporary War

The Chinese Perception of Contemporary War

How Gray Zone Conflicts Challenge the West

Countering Chinese and Russian Gray Zone Warfare

NOTES

EIGHT. Competing Norms

Scenario

China’s Motivations for Intervening in Djibouti

A Response from “the West”

Dealing with a Fait Accompli

Conclusion

NOTES

PART III

Speed, Time, and Western Military Power

NOTES

NINE. Fighting, Fast and Slow?

Fighting Fast: Strategic Imperative and Organizational Culture Preferences

Fighting Slow: Adjusting the War Tempo?

Conclusion: Balancing Fast and Slow Fighting—Mission Impossible?

NOTES

TEN. War at Information Speed

Why Do These Documents Matter?

What Is Multi-Domain?

Air Force Operational Agility through Multi-Domain Command and Control

The Army’s Multi-Domain Battle/Operations (MDO) and Convergence

Navy Distributed Maritime Operations—From Ships to Nodes

Conclusion: Information, Data, Speed, and the Politics of Decision

NOTES

ELEVEN. The Limits of Technology

Three Approaches to Technology: Stability, Balance, and Opportunism

Case Studies in Speed: Hypersonic Missiles and AI Pattern Recognition

Implications: Keeping Up with the Competition

Policy Recommendations

Conclusion

NOTES

TWELVE. Military Operations

Tessalit, Mali, January–March 2024

Paphos, Cyprus, April 2024

Rukla, Lithuania, September 2025

Facing the Emerging Battlefield: Paradox and the Need to Change Our Praxis

Organizational Implications

NOTES

Conclusion

A Western Condition?

A Changing Condition?

What Is to Be Done?

Striking a Balance

NOTES

Contributors

Index

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Providing new perspectives and knowledge on an increasingly complex, uncertain, and interconnected world.

The Chatham House Insights Series

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State history and context greatly shape changing perceptions of time. For example, as Christopher Clark has demonstrated, different understandings of the role of time had a significant impact on the political stance of different German leaders. In the seventeenth century the Great Elector perceived the present as a precarious condition between a terrible past and an uncertain future, and conceived his leadership role as breaking from entangling traditions in order to maximize choices between multiple possible futures. In contrast, in the following century Frederick II conceived of time as cyclical and aimed at establishing a sort of political stasis that could only benefit the state, while in the nineteenth century Bismarck was caught in a tension between his perception of the political leader as a decisionmaker navigating the torrent of history to the best of his abilities, and a sense of the state’s nature as being eternal.32 Remarkably, from the perspective of International Relations scholarship, the importance of perceptions of time has only rarely been applied to the study of war, although this topic is of increasing interest to scholars.33 For example, David Edelstein has explored how different time perceptions between states (which he calls “time horizons”) can cause strategic frictions: depending on their time horizons, states may favor short-term cooperation and thus inadvertently empower rivals who will challenge them in the long run.34 Similarly, strategic surprises may often result from conflicting time horizons between policymakers.

Perceptions of time sometimes converge and achieve durability as they become institutionalized, notably in the international arena, where governance by law and custom is notoriously subject to the vagaries of sovereign disputes. Today’s international law and customs as they relate to war are greatly indebted to Western thought, carried into the international domain by Western power and its vestiges. Perceptions of time directly shape the ways in which states generate military power. This has important consequences for the West’s ability to balance military power and liberal principles, notably pacing itself in the conduct of war.

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