Оглавление
Группа авторов. Simulation and Wargaming
Table of Contents
List of Tables
List of Illustrations
Guide
Pages
Simulation and Wargaming
Foreword
Notes
Preface
List of Contributors
Author Biography
Prologue to Wargaming and Simulation – An Introduction to the Viewpoints and Challenges
Introduction
A Simulationist’s Perspective
A Wargamer’s Perspective
Conclusion
1 An Introduction to Wargaming and Modeling and Simulation
Introduction
Terminology
An Abbreviated History of Wargames and Simulations
Wargames and Computer‐Based Combat Simulations: From the Cold War to Today
Wargames Today
Simulations Today. Introduction
Simulation Types
Aggregate Simulations
Entity Simulations
Simulations and Prediction
Standard Assumptions
Data
Simulating the Reality of Combat
The Capability and Capacity of Modern Computing to Represent Combat
Finite Size
Number of Pieces/Entities
Terrain
Rules
Movement
Attack
Adjudication
Victory Conditions
Summary
Campaign Analysis
Conclusion
Notes
2 A School for War – A Brief History of the Prussian Kriegsspiel
Introduction
Kriegsspiel Prehistory
A School for War – the Prussian Kriegsspiel
The Prussian Kriegsspiel 1824/28 – 1862
The Golden Age – 1862 to c. 1875
The Changing Kriegsspiel – c. 1875 to 1914
Kriegsspiel Beyond Borders – 1871 to 1914
Conclusion
Works Cited
Notes
3 Using Combat Models for Wargaming
The Nature of Combat Models
Europe’s Plan to Simulate the Entire Planet
China Exclusive: China’s “Magic Cube” Computer Unlocks the Future
A Model to Predict War
Afghanistan Stability/COIN Dynamics – Security18
The Nature of Wargames
The Players – Who Might Be Involved?
The CRT – How Do We Adjudicate Political, Economic, Information and Other Non‐Kinetic Actions? How DO WE ADJUDICATE KINETIC INTERACTIONS (Which, in This Case, We Hope Do Not Occur!)?
Organizational Behaviors
Issue in Wargames (and Combat Models)
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Notes
4 An Analysis‐Centric View of Wargaming, Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis
Background and Structure
Relationships, Definitions, and Distinctions. Different Purposes for Wargaming
Backdrop. A Common Critique of M&S
Humans and M&S
Distinctions
A Model‐Game‐Model Paradigm. The Core Idea
Can Human Gaming Truly Serve as “Testing”?
Case Study: Deterrence and Stability on the Korean Peninsula
Background
Model Building. Ideal Methods and Practical Expedients
Modernizing the Escalation Ladder
Cognitive Decision Models
Top‐Level Structure
Lower Level Structure
Designing and Executing a Human Game
Reflections and Conclusions
Implications for Simulation
References
Notes
5 Wargaming, Automation, and Military Experimentation to Quantitatively and Qualitatively Inform Decision‐Making
Introduction
Military Methods to Knowledge Discovery
Technology: Knowledge Enablers
Wargaming Automation Challenges in M&S Perspective
Wargaming Relation to M&S
Wargaming Elements
Constructive Simulation Building Blocks
Wargaming Elements Not Supported by Constructive Simulation
Challenges to Combined Methodologies for Knowledge Discovery
Constructive Simulation Constrains in the Context of Automation and Wargaming
Stage‐Wise Experimentation in CAW
A Progression of Mixed Methods to Grand Innovation
A Complete Application of ACAW and SWE for Future Capability Insights
Computer‐Assisted Wargaming Classification
Conclusion
References
6 Simulation and Artificial Intelligence Methods for Wargames : Case Study – “European Thread”
Introduction
Assumptions and Research Tools
Modeling of Complex Activities. Network Model of Complex Activities
The MCA Software Package for Wargaming
Wargame – Course of Action Evaluation. Assumptions
Situation. Y Forces
X Forces
Intents of the Opposing Sides
Additional Comments
Model of Operation
A Collection of Values of the Function h(g)
Deterrence Phase. Parameters Value – Deterrence Phase
COA Evaluation
Summary
References
Notes
7 Combining Wargaming and Simulation Analysis
Introduction
Current Efforts Underway
Methodology
Frameworks or Schemas to Support Portfolios
Comparability
Emergence
Triangulation
Exercises
Artificial Intelligence
Wargames
Computer Simulation Models
Mathematical Models
Experimentation
Building Portfolios
Conclusion
References
8 The Use of M&S and Wargaming to Address Wicked Problems
Why Are We Doing This?
Framing the Problem
M&S Support to Wargames
Pathologies and How to Avoid Them
Combining Wargaming and M&S
Notes
9 Simulation Support to Wargaming for Tactical Operations Planning
Introduction
Operational Planning and Wargaming
What are the Benefits of Simulation Support to COA Wargaming?
Principles of Technology Support to Wargaming for Operations Planning
Enabling Technologies
Models
System Implementation
SWAP
SWAP Experiment
Conclusion and Way Forward
References
10 Simulation‐Based Cyber Wargaming
Motivation and Overview
Introduction
Cyber Simulation
Mission Analysis Tool
Wargames
Commercial Wargames
Future Work
Summary
References
Notes
11 Using Computer‐Generated Virtual Realities, Operations Research, and Board Games for Conflict Simulations
Introduction
Public Software (C:MA/NO)
User‐Tailored Software (VBS3)
Artificial Intelligence for Solving Tactical Planning Problems
Wargaming Support
Conclusion
References
12 Virtual Worlds and the Cycle of Research : Enhancing Information Flow Between Simulationists and Wargamers
The Cycle of Research as a Communications Framework
Bridging the Wargaming – Simulation Gap
Virtual World Beginnings
Elgin Marbles – An Analytic Game
Analytical vs. Narrative Games
Virtual Worlds as a Virtual Reality
Operational Wargames
Distributed LVC Wargames
The Future
Notes
13 Visualization Support to Strategic Decision‐Making
Introduction
Impact/Capabilities
Strategic Planning
Acquisitions
Spectrum of Visualizations
Interactive Visualizations
Commercial Interactive Data Visualization
Custom Data and Analytics Visualization
Methodology. Model Elicitation
Framework
Considerations
Data
Analytic Tools
Colors of Money
Courses of Action
Model Construction
Strategic
Budget
Risk Identification and Mitigation
Example: The MITRE Simulation, Experimentation and Analytics Lab (SEAL)
Audio Visual Support
Multi‐Level Security
Enterprise Integration
Community of Practice
Summary
References
14 Using an Ontology to Design a Wargame/Simulation System
Motivation and Overview
Introduction
A Modern Conflict Ontology
An Introduction to the MCO
Actors
Objects
Actions
Metrics or State Variables
MCO Examples
Provenance of the MCO
Knowledge of Warfare
Knowledge of OOTWs
Modeling Issues
Precursor Ontologies
Early Versions of the MCO
Creating a Simulation/Wargame from the Ontology
Model Building Steps
Moving from the Ontology to the Conceptual Model
Building Block Concept
Agendas and Implicit Metric Models
Theoretical Metric Models
VV&A
Constructing the Scenario
Model Infrastructure
Conclusion
References
15 Agent‐Driven End Game Analysis for Air Defense
Motivation and Overview
Introduction
Related Studies
Agent‐Directed Simulation and AdSiF
AdSiF: Agent Driven Simulation Framework
End Game Agent
Command and Control Agent
C2 Architecture and Information Sharing
Target Evaluation
Fire Decision
Fire Doctrine
Decision‐Level Data Fusion
Code 15.1 Fire Doctrine Rule Base
Code 15.2 Position Fusion Predicate
Aims and Performance Measurement
Types of End Game Analysis
Footprint Analysis
Operating Area
Defended Area Analysis
Scenario View
Online Analysis and Scenario Replication Design
An Air Defense Scenario: Scenario View
Discussions
References
Epilogue
Index. a
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