Cindynics, The Science of Danger

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Guy Planchette. Cindynics, The Science of Danger

Table of Contents

List of Tables

List of Illustrations

Guide

Pages

Cindynics, The Science of Danger. A Wake-up Call

Acknowledgments

Presentation of the Institut pour la Maîtrise des Risques (French Institute for Risk Management)

Note

Foreword

Preface

A bit of history

1950 to 1970

1970 to 1986

1986 to 1990

After 1990

The birth of a new science: cindynics

The birth and activities of the IMdR working group

1. Understanding Cindynics

1.1. The approach

1.2. The method

1.3. The tools

1.4. Processes

2. The Usefulness of the Cindynics Approach and Method

2.1. The situation, the founding concept of cindynics

2.2. Characterizing an activity situation

2.3. Qualifying a dangerous situation within an activity situation

2.3.1. Notion of a dangerous situation

2.3.2. Qualifying the dangerousness of a situation

3. The Usefulness of Cindynics Tools. 3.1. Qualification grid for risk sources that are not easily identifiable

3.2. Describing this type of risk source

3.2.1. At the global organization level

Cultural CSDs

Organizational CSDs

Managerial CSDs

3.2.2. At the level of stakeholder groups

3.2.3. At the level of the individual actor

4. Reducing Risk Sources

5. A Comparative View Between Dependability and Cindynics. 5.1. Introduction. 5.1.1. Dependability

5.1.2. The cindynics approach

5.1.3. Dependability and cindynics seem to ignore or even compete with each other

5.2. What is a complex system?

5.3. Dependability approach – its strengths and limitations. 5.3.1. The scope of dependability

5.3.2. Description of the system and its components

5.3.3. Functional analysis

5.3.4. Process hazard analysis

5.3.5. Technological choices

5.3.6. Identification of failures – analyzing risks

5.3.7. Strengths and limitations of the approach

5.4. The cindynics approach. 5.4.1. The cindynic situation and its scope

5.4.2. Strengths and limitations of the approach

5.5. Conflict or complementarity of the two approaches

5.6. Conclusion

6. Perspectives

Conclusion

Examples of Approaches. E.1. The Bhopal disaster. E.1.1. Context

E.1.2. The disaster

E.1.3. The consequences

E.1.4. The various analyses of the disaster

E.1.5. Critical analysis of these approaches

E.1.6. “Bhopal” with a cindynics approach

E.1.7. The activity situation

E.1.8. Cindynics Systemic Deficits (CSDs)

E.1.9. The hyperspaces of danger (HED) realized

Box E.1.Data axis of the HED of the city of Bhopal

Box E.2.HED population data axis

E.1.10. Union Carbide (UC) over time and proposals for action

E.2. The Queen Mary II gangway accident. E.2.1. Context

E.2.2. The accident

E.2.3. The consequences

E.2.4. Analysis of the causes of the accident

E.2.5. The cindynics approach to the gangway accident

E.2.5.1. The activity situation

E.2.5.2. Systemic deficits (CSDs)

E.2.5.2. Hyperspace of Danger (HED)

E.2.5.3. The identification of deficits and dissonances When studying these tables, the deficits and dissonances appear numerous

E.3. The Deepwater Horizon drilling rig accident. E.3.1. Context

E.3.2. The accident

E.3.3. The consequences

E.3.4. The cindynics approach

E.3.4.1. The activity situation

E.3.4.2. Systemic deficits

E.3.4.3. Actors involved

E.3.4.4. The hyperspaces of danger (HED) realized

E.3.4.5. Statement of the actor’s deficits: representative of the client

E.3.4.6. Some considerations from the global analysis of the actors’ behavior

E.4. Covid-19 and the problem of home-made cloth masks. E.4.1. The general context. E.4.1.1. The facts

E.4.1.2. General prevention measures against the pandemic

E.4.1.3. Specific measures for the wearing of masks. E.4.1.3.1. Regulations and directives in France

E.4.1.3.2. Uses

E.4.2. The cindynic study of the problem of home-made cloth masks. E.4.2.1. Context

E.4.2.2. Introductions to the project

E.4.3. The cindynics approach

E.4.3.1. The project’s objectives

E.4.3.2. The situation

E.4.3.3. Systemic deficits

E.4.3.4. A look at the deficits

E.4.3.4.1. Data or facts

E.4.3.4.2. Models on which it is possible to rely on

E.4.3.4.3. Laws and regulations (see Chapter 1, section 1.3)

E.4.3.4.4. The values that guide us (see Chapter 1, section 1.3)

E.4.3.4.5. Purposes or goals (see Chapter 1, section 1.3)

E.4.3.5. A look at dissonance

E.5. An interdisciplinary look at all the examples

Appendix 1. Current Risk Management and its Shortcomings. A1.1. The main principles of the current process

A1.2. Limitations of the current process and solutions

Appendix 2. Notions of Interaction and Complexity. A2.1. Preamble

A2.2. Notions of interactions

A2.3. Notions of complexity

Appendix 3. The Grounded Theorization Method

A3.1. The five steps of data analysis by grounded theorization (source: Wikipedia)

Appendix 4. Notions of Quantum Theory

Appendix 5. Summary of CSDs

Appendix 6. Archeocindynic Study

A6.1. Alesia: 53 BCE

A6.2. The 1720 plague of Marseille

A6.3. The 1794 explosion of the Grenelle gunpowder depot

A6.4. The sinking of the Titanic April 15, 1912

A6.5. October 29, 1929, the Wall Street Crash on Black Tuesday

Appendix 7. Bhopal Study

Appendix 8. More Information About Bhopal

Appendix 9. Collection of Information on the Queen Mary II Gangway Accident. A9.1. The facts

A9.2. Context

A9.3. The companies concerned. A9.3.1. Chantiers de l’Atlantique (CAT)

A9.3.2. ENDEL

A9.4. Contracts between companies

A9.5. Elements of the legal procedure. A9.5.1. The experts

A9.5.2. CAT managers

A9.5.3. The ENDEL managers

Appendix 10. Queen Mary Accident Cause Tree

Appendix 11. Collection of Information on the Deepwater Horizon Oil Rig Accident. A11.1. Sources of information

A11.2. Elements identified in the final report on the investigation

A11.3. The elements noted in [LEC 16]

A11.4. The causes of the accident noted by the BP company: elements found in [MAG 17]

A11.5. The precursor signals noted in [MAG 17]

A11.6. The elements noted in [MAR 10b]

Appendix 12. Synthesis Note of the Work of IMdR–AFPCN: “Vulnerability of Networks and Natural Disasters”

Appendix 13. The New Cindynics Concepts Training Course

Postface

Glossary

References

Other documents in the IMdR library. IMdR λp 21 conference (2018)

Proceedings (IEC)

Notebooks from the “Épistémologie des cindyniques” group

Index. A, B, C

D, E, F

G, H, I

L, M

O, P, Q

R, S

T, V

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Отрывок из книги

Reliability of Multiphysical Systems Set coordinated by Abdelkhalak El Hami

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As a result, any actor or group of actors (see Glossary) with their own characteristics may cause other types of pathogenic elements, such as ambiguities, blurred, divergent points of view, conflicts and rivalries.

Thus, in addition to deficits acting as gaps, dissonance is also a source of tension between actors. Other forms of danger (and therefore dangerous situations) than those identified up until now also appear. It is therefore necessary to better define the danger, that is, “to identify it, in order to be able to hope to reduce its negative consequences” [KER 91].

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