An incisive framework for companies seeking to increase their resilience In The Black Swan Problem: Risk Management Strategies for a World of Wild Uncertainty, renowned risk and finance expert Håkan Jankensgård delivers an extraordinary and startling discussion of how firms should navigate a world of uncertainty and unexpected events. It examines three fundamental, high-level strategies for creating resilience in the face of “black swan” risks, highly unlikely but devastating events: insurance, buffering, and flexibility: The author also presents: Detailed case studies, stories, and examples of major firms that failed to anticipate Black Swan Problems and, as a result, were either wiped out or experienced a major strategy disruption Extending the usual academic focus on individual biases to analyze Swans from an organizational perspective and prime organizations to proactive rather than reactive action Practical applications and tactics to mitigate Black Swan risks and protect corporate strategies against catastrophic losses and the collateral damage that they cause Strategies and tools for turning Black Swan events into opportunities, reflecting the fact that resilience can be used for strategic advantage An expert blueprint for companies seeking to anticipate, mitigate, and process tail risks, The Black Swan Problem is a must-read for students and practitioners of risk management, executives, founders, managers, and other business leaders.
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Håkan Jankensgård. The Black Swan Problem
Table of Contents
List of Tables
List of Illustrations
Guide
Pages
The Black Swan Problem. Risk Management Strategies for a World of Wild Uncertainty
Prologue
Note
Acknowledgements
CHAPTER ONE The Swans Revisited
THE NATURE OF RANDOMNESS
THE MOVING TAIL
THE ROLE OF EXPECTATIONS
WHAT MAKES US SUCKERS?
THE RELATIVITY OF BLACK SWANS
MEET THE PREPPERS
NOTES
CHAPTER TWO Corporate Swans
THE BOARD'S PERSPECTIVE
SWANS ATTACK
STRATEGY SWANS
THE SWAN WITHIN
THE GROWTH FETISH
THE FEAR FACTOR
THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE SWAN
SWANS ON THE RISE
Notes
CHAPTER THREE The Black Swan Problem
TAIL RISK AND FIRM VALUE
UNDERSTANDING WIPEOUTS
STRATEGY DISRUPTION
ALL YOU ZOMBIES
THE AFFORDABILITY ISSUE
THE CONUNDRUM
Notes
CHAPTER FOUR Greeting the Swan
RANDOMNESS REDUX
THE ROADS NOT TAKEN
FUNCTIONAL STUPIDITY
THE SWANMAKERS
ON TOOLS AND MODELS
A SWAN RADAR FOR THE BOARD
Notes
CHAPTER FIVE Taming the Swan
DRAWING THE LINE
DISTANCE TO WIPEOUT
RISK CAPITAL
STRESS TESTING
The Exit Option
RESILIENCE VS ENDURANCE
QUANTITATIVE MODELS
LIQUIDITY IS KING
Notes
CHAPTER SIX Catching the Swan
ANTIFRAGILITY
RESTORING THE TRUE PATH
BUYING ON THE CHEAP
OPPORTUNITY CAPITAL
FLIGHT TO SAFETY
RISK AS STRATEGY
Notes
CHAPTER SEVEN Riding the Swan
RISK SHIFTING
A BEAUTIFUL STRATEGY
FUEL FOR GROWTH
NARCISSISM REDEEMED
A TAIL OF TWO COMPANIES
END OF THE RIDE
SWANS TO THE RESCUE?
Notes
Epilogue
Note
Index
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To continue our story, it becomes clear that any characterizations of random processes will be increasingly subjective as we move away from data‐driven approaches. We leave the world of inference from data and enter the realm of the imagination. Our faculties for reasoning and logic can partly make up for a lack of data – we can figure certain stuff out. When the imagination fails us, we have those truest of Black Swans, the inconceivable ones, the ‘unknown unknowns’. We have already mentioned the 9/11 attack as being in this category. In a similar way, the collapse of the Soviet Union was utterly unthinkable to the Western intelligentsia and political establishment at the time. George Kennan, an American diplomat and historian, commented as follows, based on a review of the history of international affairs in the modern era:
‘[It is] hard to think of any event more strange and startling, and at first glance inexplicable, than the sudden and total disintegration and disappearance … of the great power known successively as the Russian Empire and then the Soviet Union.’10
