Оглавление
John Piper. Binary Trading
Publishing Details
Biography
Preface
Introduction
1.A Day in the Life of a FTSE Binaries Trader. The FTSE on 26 November 2007. It’s a tough life for us traders
Market opens
Chart 1.1: FTSE 100 Index, 24-26 Nov 2007
A quick note on binary betting
Back to the market…
FTSE starts to move
On entries and exits
Back to the action…
Chart 1.2: FTSE 100 Index, 26 Nov 2007
Charts of the bets
FTSE to end down
Chart 1.3: FTSE to end down
FTSE to end down >50
Chart 1.4: FTSE to end down >50
FTSE cash low to be <-100
Chart 1.5: FTSE cash low to be <-100
Summary
2. Trading Strategies
Basic strategies
Different approaches to a strategy
1. Buying near certainties
So how do we turn this unfortunate result to our favour?
2. Buying very cheap
The true cost of the spread
How to win from cheap bets
3. Buy low and trade the position
4. More complex strategies
Research
Pricing and probability. The pricing of a sports bet
The concept of value
The pricing of a financial bet
A final word on pricing
Summary
3. The Key Bets
Up/Down (reversals)
1. Small moves
Table 3.1: Small move trade
2. Extremes
Table 3.2: Trading an extreme
3. Very low risk
Tunnels/Barrier Bets
1. Support levels
Table 3.3: Trading at support level
2. Longer-term moves
Chart 3.1: FTSE triangulates (1)
Chart 3.2: FTSE triangulates (2)
OneTouches
Using a OneTouch after an early fall. Table 3.4: Trading a OneTouch
Hi/Los
1. Extremes
Table 3.5: Trading an extreme with a Hi/Lo bet
2. Trending action
Table 3.6: Trading the trend with a Hi/Lo bet
Football Match – play for the goal
Example 3.1: Football match
Figure 3.3: binary price chart during a football match
Summary
Endnote
4. Shorting FTSE with BetOnMarkets.com
Markets heading for a big fall!
The importance of options expiry
Fear brings on what is feared
A major sell signal in November 2007
Chart 4.1: FTSE (November 2007)
Chart 4.2: FTSE, anatomy of a fall
Fast action
Figure 4.1: Elliot’s five waves
Dark forces and a 1000 point fall
Choosing the bets
The bets themselves
A trading idea
And here is one more tip
Summary
Endnote
5. Trading the News with Binaries
Example 5.1: Trading the news
LTT – 11:55am Tuesday, 29 January 2008
LTT – 12:34pm Wednesday, 30 January 2008
LTT – 5:48pm Wednesday, 30 January 2008
LTT – Thursday, 31 January 2008
Explaining the strategy
Conclusion
Summary
6. Trading the Waves with Binaries
Figure 6.1: Elliott five-wave impulsive rally
Elliott five in the real world: Chart 6.1: FTSE hourly
The 1987 Crash
Chart 6.2: FTSE daily
Figure 6.2: An Elliott five with waves 1 and 2 subdivided
Elliott hype and complications
My version of Elliott Wave
Chart 6.3: Two winning trades
Trade 1
Trade 2
A look at the bets themselves. FTSE to finish up – 29 June 2007
To recap
FTSE to finish up – 2 July 2007
Infallibility
When a move fails to materialise. Chart 6.4: US Interest rate news, 18-19 September 2007
My LunchTime Trader commentary on this bet
LunchTime Trader – 19 September 2007
LunchTime Trader – 20 September
Conclusion
Summary
Endnote
7. Trading the Spikes
Market Profile
Figure 7.1: The bell curve
Spike anatomy
Spike analysis
Trading spikes on news
Spike signals
Chart 7.1: Elliott, spikes and the news
Chart 7.2: More spikes
FTSE futures and cash
Nailing the Spikes
Summary
Endnote
8. Trading Failures, the Mind of the Market and Trendlines
Failed re-tests and failed breaks
Figure 8.1: Failed re-test
Figure 8.2: Failed break
Chart 8.1: Examples of re-tests
The mind of the market
Failed break
The balance between those long and short
The mind of the market and news
Binaries and news
Trendlines
Chart 8.2: Trendlines
Chart 8.3: Trendline channel
Failed signals
Moving averages
Chart 8.4: Moving averages
Summary
9. How Many Brains do you Think you Have?
Figure 9.1: Stylised model of the human brain
Why can’t we all excel in our own chosen fields?
Which of your brains do you think you use when deciding it is time to trade?
Why do we trade?
How your three brains work with the markets
Attacked by the market
The three brains and everyday situation
It’s all in your head
Chart 9.1: PE ratio
Summary
10. Statistics and Probability
Strings of losses
Fugitives from the law of averages
Probability
An example of how you may view bet pricing
Table 10.1: Dow Index – range analysis
Diagram 10.1: Dow Index daily changes (Jan 2007 – Aug 2008)
Table 10.2: FTSE – range analysis
Diagram 10.2: FTSE 100 Index daily changes (Jan 2007 – Aug 2008)
Building a trading system
Volatility and trends
1. Volatility
How is volatility measured?
Diagram 10.3: DJIA daily high-low range (Jan 2007 – Aug 2008)
2. The trend
3. Variation in bet pricing
4. News
Summary
Endnote
11. Developing a Trading System
How do you maximise your profits?
Trading ideas
Example 11.1: A trading idea
Ten plus three trading ideas
Trading systems
The metrics
Example 11.2: Metrics in action
Why are the metrics so important?
Developing the system. Two requirements
Now it is time to start
Step one – Back-test your idea
Example 11.3: Back-testing an idea
Table 11.1: Back-testing results
Date
Possible Entry
Possible Exit
My Entry/My Exit
Possible result
Metric #1
Metric #2
Table 11.2: Metrics analysis for test trading idea
Step two – Paper-trade your idea
Example 11.4: Paper-trading an idea
Table 11.3: Paper-trading results
Table 11.4: Summary results
Step three – risk
Step four – you trade for real (but use small sums to do so)
Example 11.5: Real time trading
Table 11.5: Real trading results
Table 11.6: Summary results for the system
Table 11.7: Summary results for my trading
Step five – increase your trading size
Step six – Further increase trading size as profits grow and start to trade other markets
Conclusion
Addendum: Lessons from The Black Swan
Example 11.6: A typical system
Table 11.8: Summary results for this system
Summary
12. System Testing
The Marble Game. First you need to keep a record of your trades
Now split your trades into groups
Table 12.1: Your trades classified in groups
The next step is to buy your “hardware”
Setting the rules
Off you go!
Table 12.2: The Marble Game – results
The lessons you might learn
Are you a trader or gambler?
System Performance
Chart 12.1: Sequence 1 – Wow – more of this please!
Chart 12.2: Sequence 2 – Oh Dear! Better scrap this
Summary
13. The Psychology of Trading the Binaries
The Trading Pyramid
Figure 13.1: The Trading Pyramid
1. You
2. Commitment
3. Discipline
4. Money management
5. Risk control
6. The Three Simple Rules
7. System parameters
8. Your system/methodology
9. Operation
10. Profits/Losses
Summary
14. Binary Betting Rules
Rule 1 – Control your losses
Rule 2 – Let your profits run
Rule 3 – Be selective – just bet ten times each year!
Rule 4 – Bet at a comfortable size
Rule 5 – Understand the logic of your trading approach
Rule 6 – Don’t predict
Rule 7 – Don’t panic
Rule 8 – Stay humble/balanced – big egos are expensive to run
Rule 9 – Find a trading mentor
Rule 10 – Betting can be a lot of fun, but if you want to win treat it seriously
15. The Beginning
Change
Good luck!
I. Directory of Binary Betting Companies
Cash from the betting companies
II. Futures, Options and Binary Bets
III. Answers to Exercises
IV. The 5 Point Trading System
What’s to stop you?
Now let’s get real
Guidelines
V. Stops and Limits
Limits
Bet pairs
Stops
Summary
How betting companies regard limits and stops
VI. Market Profile and Minus Development
Market Profile
Fig 18.1 Chaos into order
Fig 18.2 The bell curve and TPOs
Fig 18.3 The bell curve
Minus Development
Value
Fig 18.4 Minus Development
Other concepts
Fig 18.5 Initial Balance and Range Extension
TTT article
Fig 18.6 Bar chart
Fig 18.7 MP chart
Trading tips with Market Profile
Summary
VII. LunchTime Trader and JPT
JohnPipersTrading (JPT)
LunchTime Traders (LTT)
