Оглавление
Kathleen Brooks. Kathleen Brooks on Forex
Publishing details
Acknowledgements
About the author
Preface. What this book covers
Introduction
Introduction
Trading using economic data
Use of an economic calendar
Consensus
Economic indicators
1. Labour market surveys. What is it?
When is NFP data released?
Why is NFP data significant?
FX market example
Figure 1.1: EURUSD on NFP Friday (6 September 2012)
Figure 1.2: EURUSD (6 September to 21 September 2012)
2. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and Institute of Supply Management (ISM) surveys. What is it?
When is the data released?
Why are they significant?
FX market example
A negative surprise in euro zone PMI data
Figure 1.3: EURUSD (20 September 2012)
Figure 1.4: GBPUSD short-term chart
Figure 1.5: GBPUSD 1-month chart
3. Inflation data. What is inflation data?
When is inflation data released?
Why is inflation data significant?
FX market examples. Example 1: US inflation and USDJPY
Figure 1.6: US inflation and USDJPY (late 2010 to summer 2012)
Example 2: Chinese inflation and AUDUSD
Figure 1.7: AUDUSD daily chart (April to November 2012)
4. Quarterly GDP. What is it?
When is GDP data released?
Why is GDP significant?
FX market example
Example 1: UK
Figure 1.8: EURGBP in the immediate aftermath of the UK’s Q3 2012 GDP
Example 2: Japan
Figure 1.9: USDJPY – 30-day chart
How currencies are affected by the various economic data
Figure 1.10: GBPUSD (3 September 2012)
Figure 1.11: AUDUSD and Chinese GDP (late 2007 to 2012)
Interest rates and central banks
The major central banks
What central banks do
Central banks in action
Minutes from the RBA and AUDUSD
Figure 1.12: AUDUSD following dovish minutes from the RBA (18 September 2012)
Fed monetary policy and USDJPY
Figure 1.13: 10-Year Treasury yields and USDJPY (2011 and 2012)
Unconventional central banking
Figure 1.14: Dollar index (the dollar vs. its major trading partners); QE2 and QE3 are circled
Interest rate differentials
Figure 1.15: AUDUSD, showing uptrend (2010 to 2012)
Figure 1.16: EURUSD and the difference between German 10-year bond yields and US 10-year bond yields
Central bank intervention
1. Bank of Japan intervention to weaken the yen in March 2011
Figure 1.17: USDJPY (February and March 2011)
2. Aggressive intervention by the SNB
Figure 1.18: EURCHF (late 2011 and 2012)
Political risks
Figure 1.19: EURUSD (2010)
Figure 1.20: EURUSD (2012)
The concept of safe havens and risky assets
The safe havens
What this means for FX markets
Figure 1.21: Dollar index (September 2008 to February 2009)
Risky currencies
Figure 1.22: AUDUSD (2008)
Figure 1.23: NOKUSD (2008)
Fundamental analysis wrap-up
Introduction
A potted history
The dinner party explanation
Figure 2.1: EURUSD with a resistance line at 1.3000
How to use TA
Charts
Figure 2.2: EURUSD daily: how my charts look with candlesticks, moving averages and MACD
Trading with trends
Figure 2.3: EURUSD in uptrend
Figure 2.4: EURUSD in downtrend
Uptrend
1. Moving averages
Figure 2.5: EURUSD daily with moving averages
2. Ichimoku clouds
Figure 2.6: USDJPY – the price action is above the cloud, indicating the start of an uptrend
3. Chart patterns
Inverted hammer
Figure 2.7: EURUSD: inverted hammer pattern signalling the end of the downtrend
Bullish engulfing candle
Figure 2.8: EURUSD: bullish engulfing candlestick
Downtrend
Tweezer top
Figure 2.9: EURUSD with tweezer top
Bearish engulfing candlestick
Figure 2.10: EURUSD with bearish engulfing candlestick
Moving averages
Confirming the trend
Figure 2.11: EURUSD and RSI
During a trend
The pullback
Figure 2.12: EURUSD in a downtrend
Figure 2.13: Pullbacks within channels
Continuation patterns
Ascending triangles
Figure 2.14: Ascending triangle
Descending triangles
Figure 2.15: Descending triangle
When a trend ends
Bearish harami
Figure 2.16: Bearish harami pattern
Doji candlestick
Figure 2.17: GBPUSD showing a doji followed by a tweezer top
A note on volume data
What happens when markets don’t trend?
Range trading: a real-life example. Step 1: Identify the range
Figure 2.18: range-trading step 1 – establish a range is in place
Figure 2.19: USDJPY and RSI, MACD
Step 2: Use this information to place a trade
Figure 2.20: range-trading step 2 – place a trade
Step 3: Identify when a range is over
Figure 2.21: range-trading step 3 – identify when the range is broken
Technical analysis wrap-up
Introduction
How the philosophy works
Trading examples
Case Study 1: USDCAD. The background
Figure 3.1: USDCAD, daily chart
The trade
Figure 3.2: USDCAD
Figure 3.3: USDCAD Ichimoku cloud chart
Trading strategy
Case Study 2: USDJPY. The background
Figure 3.4: USDJPY and the interest rate differential
The trade
Figure 3.5: USDJPY, daily chart
Figure 3.6: USDJPY, daily chart
Trading strategy
Case Study 3: GBPUSD. The background
Figure 3.7: UK-US 10-year bond yield spread and GBPUSD
The trade
Figure 3.8: GBPUSD
Figure 3.9: GBPUSD – daily chart a couple of days before the GDP release
Figure 3.10: GBPUSD
Trading strategy
Case Study 4: AUD. The background
Figure 3.11: AUDUSD and the Thomson Reuters/Jefferies commodities index
Figure 3.12: AUDUSD and the interest rate differential between Australian 10-year government bond yields and US 10-year government bond yields
The trade
Figure 3.13: AUDUSD range-bound (July to October 2012)
Looking at other Aussie crosses
Figure 3.14: GBPAUD and the UK-AU interest rate differential
Chart 3.15: GBPAUD
Trading strategy
Case Study 5: Gold
The background
The trade
Figure 3.16: Gold daily chart
Figure 3.17: Gold – daily chart: I have zoomed in on the break out that started in early August
Figure 3.18: Gold, daily chart – the trend comes to an end
Trading strategy
Case Study 6: EURUSD
The background
The trade
Figure 3.19: EURUSD daily chart (June to October)
Figure 3.20: EURUSD daily chart
Figure 3.21: EURUSD
Trading strategy
Case Study 7: EURGBP
Figure 3.22: EURGBP (2009 to 2012)
The trade
Figure 3.23: EURGBP
Figure 3.24: EURGBP making higher lows (August to September 2012)
Figure 3.25: EURGBP with head and shoulders pattern
Figure 3.26: EURGBP
Trading strategy
Fusion philosophy wrap-up
Introduction
Top five risk management tips
Trading examples. Case Study 1: EURUSD. Background
Figure 4.1: EURUSD
Risk management strategy
Figure 4.2: EURUSD with stop loss and take profit levels
Position size
A quick word on margin and leverage
Conclusion
Case study 2: trailing stop loss. What to do during the trade
What I do if the trade is going in my favour
What I do if the trade isn’t going in my favour
Case study 3: managing emotions
Figure 4.3: EURUSD (January to October 2012)
Risk management wrap-up
Conclusion
My top ten tips for trading
Appendix. Suggested reading list
Bibliography
Investing and Trading books from Harriman House
4 Keys to Profitable Forex Trend Trading: Unlocking the Profit Potential of Trending Currency Pairs
101 Ways to Pick Stock Market Winners
Beat the Street: A Trader's Guide to Consistently Scoring in the Markets
The Foreign Exchange Matrix: A new framework for understanding currency movements
Free Capital: How 12 private investors made millions in the stock market
How to Value Shares and Outperform the Market: A simple, new and effective approach to value investing
The Law of Vibration: The revelation of William D. Gann
Money Makers: The Stock Market Secrets of Britain's Top Professional Investment Managers
The Naked Trader: How anyone can make money trading shares
Professional Investor Rules: Top investors reveal the secrets of their success
The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbook: A practical guide for investors and advisers
Trading Triangles: How to trade and profit from triangle patterns right now!
You Say Tomayto: Contrarian Investing in Bitesize Pieces