Kathleen Brooks on Forex

Kathleen Brooks on Forex
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Описание книги

A simple approach to successful forex trading
Many foreign exchange traders use either fundamental analysis or technical analysis and they're often considered to be mutually exclusive approaches. But FX does not have to be traded that way – fusing the two types of analysis will improve your research and, more importantly, your trading results.
This is how Kathleen Brooks trades foreign exchange and she has found it to be extremely successful. In Kathleen Brooks on Forex she reveals the secrets of this approach, demonstrating the indicators she uses, and showing through detailed examples how she plans and executes profitable trades.
At the heart of Kathleen's trading philosophy is the principle that fundamental factors – politics, economics and societal changes – cause currency prices to move in the medium to long term (and sometimes in the strangest ways), but throughout the day the price movements are based upon technical factors. Building a trading plan around the two sets of factors works for her and by reading about how she does her pre-trade market analysis (the homework), forms a trading plan and puts the plan into action, you will see how to apply this principle in practice in your own trading.
The book is divided into four sections:
– Part A – using fundamental indicators to gain an impression of the market – Part B – using technical indicators to refine your trading plan – Part C – fusing fundamental and technical analysis to select trades – Part D – revealing Kathleen's risk management techniques
Kathleen's description of her method, and ideas on how you can use it too, will appeal to anyone who wants to learn more about how to trade foreign exchange as well as those already in the market looking for a fresh approach. Blissfully free of rhetoric, written in an accessible personal style and punctuated with anecdotes from Kathleen's unique career in the markets, this is a new and refreshing look at foreign exchange.

Оглавление

Kathleen Brooks. Kathleen Brooks on Forex

Publishing details

Acknowledgements

About the author

Preface. What this book covers

Introduction

Introduction

Trading using economic data

Use of an economic calendar

Consensus

Economic indicators

1. Labour market surveys. What is it?

When is NFP data released?

Why is NFP data significant?

FX market example

Figure 1.1: EURUSD on NFP Friday (6 September 2012)

Figure 1.2: EURUSD (6 September to 21 September 2012)

2. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and Institute of Supply Management (ISM) surveys. What is it?

When is the data released?

Why are they significant?

FX market example

A negative surprise in euro zone PMI data

Figure 1.3: EURUSD (20 September 2012)

Figure 1.4: GBPUSD short-term chart

Figure 1.5: GBPUSD 1-month chart

3. Inflation data. What is inflation data?

When is inflation data released?

Why is inflation data significant?

FX market examples. Example 1: US inflation and USDJPY

Figure 1.6: US inflation and USDJPY (late 2010 to summer 2012)

Example 2: Chinese inflation and AUDUSD

Figure 1.7: AUDUSD daily chart (April to November 2012)

4. Quarterly GDP. What is it?

When is GDP data released?

Why is GDP significant?

FX market example

Example 1: UK

Figure 1.8: EURGBP in the immediate aftermath of the UK’s Q3 2012 GDP

Example 2: Japan

Figure 1.9: USDJPY – 30-day chart

How currencies are affected by the various economic data

Figure 1.10: GBPUSD (3 September 2012)

Figure 1.11: AUDUSD and Chinese GDP (late 2007 to 2012)

Interest rates and central banks

The major central banks

What central banks do

Central banks in action

Minutes from the RBA and AUDUSD

Figure 1.12: AUDUSD following dovish minutes from the RBA (18 September 2012)

Fed monetary policy and USDJPY

Figure 1.13: 10-Year Treasury yields and USDJPY (2011 and 2012)

Unconventional central banking

Figure 1.14: Dollar index (the dollar vs. its major trading partners); QE2 and QE3 are circled

Interest rate differentials

Figure 1.15: AUDUSD, showing uptrend (2010 to 2012)

Figure 1.16: EURUSD and the difference between German 10-year bond yields and US 10-year bond yields

Central bank intervention

1. Bank of Japan intervention to weaken the yen in March 2011

Figure 1.17: USDJPY (February and March 2011)

2. Aggressive intervention by the SNB

Figure 1.18: EURCHF (late 2011 and 2012)

Political risks

Figure 1.19: EURUSD (2010)

Figure 1.20: EURUSD (2012)

The concept of safe havens and risky assets

The safe havens

What this means for FX markets

Figure 1.21: Dollar index (September 2008 to February 2009)

Risky currencies

Figure 1.22: AUDUSD (2008)

Figure 1.23: NOKUSD (2008)

Fundamental analysis wrap-up

Introduction

A potted history

The dinner party explanation

Figure 2.1: EURUSD with a resistance line at 1.3000

How to use TA

Charts

Figure 2.2: EURUSD daily: how my charts look with candlesticks, moving averages and MACD

Trading with trends

Figure 2.3: EURUSD in uptrend

Figure 2.4: EURUSD in downtrend

Uptrend

1. Moving averages

Figure 2.5: EURUSD daily with moving averages

2. Ichimoku clouds

Figure 2.6: USDJPY – the price action is above the cloud, indicating the start of an uptrend

3. Chart patterns

Inverted hammer

Figure 2.7: EURUSD: inverted hammer pattern signalling the end of the downtrend

Bullish engulfing candle

Figure 2.8: EURUSD: bullish engulfing candlestick

Downtrend

Tweezer top

Figure 2.9: EURUSD with tweezer top

Bearish engulfing candlestick

Figure 2.10: EURUSD with bearish engulfing candlestick

Moving averages

Confirming the trend

Figure 2.11: EURUSD and RSI

During a trend

The pullback

Figure 2.12: EURUSD in a downtrend

Figure 2.13: Pullbacks within channels

Continuation patterns

Ascending triangles

Figure 2.14: Ascending triangle

Descending triangles

Figure 2.15: Descending triangle

When a trend ends

Bearish harami

Figure 2.16: Bearish harami pattern

Doji candlestick

Figure 2.17: GBPUSD showing a doji followed by a tweezer top

A note on volume data

What happens when markets don’t trend?

Range trading: a real-life example. Step 1: Identify the range

Figure 2.18: range-trading step 1 – establish a range is in place

Figure 2.19: USDJPY and RSI, MACD

Step 2: Use this information to place a trade

Figure 2.20: range-trading step 2 – place a trade

Step 3: Identify when a range is over

Figure 2.21: range-trading step 3 – identify when the range is broken

Technical analysis wrap-up

Introduction

How the philosophy works

Trading examples

Case Study 1: USDCAD. The background

Figure 3.1: USDCAD, daily chart

The trade

Figure 3.2: USDCAD

Figure 3.3: USDCAD Ichimoku cloud chart

Trading strategy

Case Study 2: USDJPY. The background

Figure 3.4: USDJPY and the interest rate differential

The trade

Figure 3.5: USDJPY, daily chart

Figure 3.6: USDJPY, daily chart

Trading strategy

Case Study 3: GBPUSD. The background

Figure 3.7: UK-US 10-year bond yield spread and GBPUSD

The trade

Figure 3.8: GBPUSD

Figure 3.9: GBPUSD – daily chart a couple of days before the GDP release

Figure 3.10: GBPUSD

Trading strategy

Case Study 4: AUD. The background

Figure 3.11: AUDUSD and the Thomson Reuters/Jefferies commodities index

Figure 3.12: AUDUSD and the interest rate differential between Australian 10-year government bond yields and US 10-year government bond yields

The trade

Figure 3.13: AUDUSD range-bound (July to October 2012)

Looking at other Aussie crosses

Figure 3.14: GBPAUD and the UK-AU interest rate differential

Chart 3.15: GBPAUD

Trading strategy

Case Study 5: Gold

The background

The trade

Figure 3.16: Gold daily chart

Figure 3.17: Gold – daily chart: I have zoomed in on the break out that started in early August

Figure 3.18: Gold, daily chart – the trend comes to an end

Trading strategy

Case Study 6: EURUSD

The background

The trade

Figure 3.19: EURUSD daily chart (June to October)

Figure 3.20: EURUSD daily chart

Figure 3.21: EURUSD

Trading strategy

Case Study 7: EURGBP

Figure 3.22: EURGBP (2009 to 2012)

The trade

Figure 3.23: EURGBP

Figure 3.24: EURGBP making higher lows (August to September 2012)

Figure 3.25: EURGBP with head and shoulders pattern

Figure 3.26: EURGBP

Trading strategy

Fusion philosophy wrap-up

Introduction

Top five risk management tips

Trading examples. Case Study 1: EURUSD. Background

Figure 4.1: EURUSD

Risk management strategy

Figure 4.2: EURUSD with stop loss and take profit levels

Position size

A quick word on margin and leverage

Conclusion

Case study 2: trailing stop loss. What to do during the trade

What I do if the trade is going in my favour

What I do if the trade isn’t going in my favour

Case study 3: managing emotions

Figure 4.3: EURUSD (January to October 2012)

Risk management wrap-up

Conclusion

My top ten tips for trading

Appendix. Suggested reading list

Bibliography

Investing and Trading books from Harriman House

4 Keys to Profitable Forex Trend Trading: Unlocking the Profit Potential of Trending Currency Pairs

101 Ways to Pick Stock Market Winners

Beat the Street: A Trader's Guide to Consistently Scoring in the Markets

The Foreign Exchange Matrix: A new framework for understanding currency movements

Free Capital: How 12 private investors made millions in the stock market

How to Value Shares and Outperform the Market: A simple, new and effective approach to value investing

The Law of Vibration: The revelation of William D. Gann

Money Makers: The Stock Market Secrets of Britain's Top Professional Investment Managers

The Naked Trader: How anyone can make money trading shares

Professional Investor Rules: Top investors reveal the secrets of their success

The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbook: A practical guide for investors and advisers

Trading Triangles: How to trade and profit from triangle patterns right now!

You Say Tomayto: Contrarian Investing in Bitesize Pieces

Отрывок из книги

Barry Lane, for his copy editing skills and source of ideas and encouragement. With thanks to Phillip Turner and Nick Slater at BP who first hired me and spent time teaching me the ropes of this market. Lastly, I want to thank all of the retail traders I have met or spoken to. They keep me on my toes and make me strive to improve my research, knowledge and perspective of financial markets and new products.

She is a regular contributor to Yahoo Finance and Reuters Great Debate, and she is often quoted in international publications including the Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times. She can be seen regularly on business TV including CNBC, Bloomberg, CNBC Arabia, Sky News Australia and the BBC. She started her career in finance at BP where she worked first as a business analyst in its trading division and then as a trading analyst in its foreign exchange dealing room. Prior to joining Forex.com she was a financial features writer for City A.M.

.....

So, rather than presenting you with another FX 101 I hope to provide a fresh way to view the FX market. This should help you with setting up and executing your trades.

I am a firm believer in learning from observation so this book is packed full of real-life examples and trading set-ups from my recent analysis of the foreign exchange market. Some things deserve a little context or explanation, but I have tried to show more than tell.

.....

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