The COVID-19 Epidemic in China

The COVID-19 Epidemic in China
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This book contains an in-depth quantitative analysis of the development of the COVID-19 epidemic in China from its very beginning in December 2019 to early April 2020 when it was brought under control. It begins with adjustments of the official cumulative data on newly confirmed cases and deaths, removing any inconsistencies and smoothing the surges not attributable directly to the COVID-19 virus itself. It discusses the measures undertaken by the Chinese Government to control the epidemic. It examines the extent of the infection, the case mortality, and the costs to the Chinese economy in both Hubei, the province in which the first confirmed case was discovered, and the rest of the Mainland outside of Hubei. There is also an international comparison of the Chinese experience with those of other countries.<b>Contents:</b> <ul><li>Preface</li><li>Introduction</li><li>A Chronology of the COVID-19 Epidemic on the Mainland</li><li>An Early Attempt at Prediction</li><li>The Big Picture</li><li>Wuhan and Hubei</li><li>China Outside of Hubei</li><li>The Costs of the COVID-19 Epidemic to China</li><li>International Comparisons</li><li>The Way Forward</li><li>References</li><li>Appendix 1: Corrections and Adjustments of the Data</li><li>Appendix 2: Estimation of the Probabilities of Transmission</li><li>Index</li></ul><br><b>Readership:</b> Readers interested in the development of the COVID-19 epidemic in China and the rest of the world, and readers interested in the implications of the epidemic on the Chinese economy.Wuhan;Hubei;Hong Kong;Macau;Taiwan;Chronology;Transmission Probabilities;Costs00

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Lawrence J Lau. The COVID-19 Epidemic in China

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Dedication

To Ayesha, my muse, my love and my life, LJL To my beloved grandparents who enlightened me with endless love, YX

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On 23 January, the cumulative total numbers of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Wuhan and Hubei, according to official data, stood at 495 and 549 respectively and had been doubling every three days. It was determined that at this rate of growth, the then existing healthcare infrastructure and personnel in Wuhan and Hubei would be totally overwhelmed and unable to handle the situation on their own. In order to alleviate the shortage of healthcare personnel, the central government coordinated the provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions to send medical teams to support Hubei. The first such team arrived in Wuhan on 23 January. Since then, a total of 344 medical teams from different parts of the country, consisting of 11,416 medical doctors and 28,679 nurses, had rushed to assist Hubei and Wuhan.33

In order to alleviate the shortage of medical facilities in Wuhan, in particular, the shortage of hospitals equipped with intensive care units and isolation wards, two new hospitals — Huoshenshan (Fire God Mountain) Hospital and Leishenshan (Thunder God Mountain) Hospital — were built and equipped at record speed in Wuhan, to treat the most critically and severely ill COVID-19 patients. The Huoshenshan Hospital began construction in the evening of 23 January and formally commenced operation, staffed by volunteer medical personnel of the People’s Liberation Army, on 2 February.34 It took only ten days from the final design to the completion and delivery, which is known as the “Speed of China”.35 Construction of the Leishenshan Hospital, with 1,600 beds, started on 28 January, and it was completed and put into service on 8 February,36 also at record speed.

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