Оглавление
Mark Spitznagel. Safe Haven
Table of Contents
Guide
Pages
SAFE HAVEN. Investing for Financial Storms
Foreword
SANTA MARINA
SPITZ
MUTUA MULI
COST‐EFFECTIVE RISK MITIGATION
Part One What Comes First
At War with Luck. WRITTEN IN BLOOD
PROBING BETS
WHAT'S A SAFE HAVEN?
THE GREAT DILEMMA
FIRST PRINCIPLES
MODUS TOLLENS
DEDUCTIVE DICE
Nature's Admonition. THE SWISS FAMILY BERNOULLI
THE SAINT PETERSBURG PARADOX
EMOLUMENTUM MEDIUM
THE GEOMETRIC AVERAGE
THE OTHER SAINT PETERSBURG PARADOX
CONCAVITY OF CURVE
THE LOGARITHMIC RHINE FALLS
The Eternal Return. AN EXISTENTIAL IMPERATIVE
INTO THE MULTIVERSE
DICE WITH SCHRÖDINGER'S DEMON (N = ∞)
DICE WITH NIETZSCHE'S DEMON (N = 1)
THE HUSTLE OF NON‐ERGODICITY
MAGIC TRICK OR MATH TRICK?
SIDE BETS
A GLIMPSE OF TREASURE
Part Two What Comes After
A Taxonomy. ESSENTIALISM
MORE DIFFERENT THAN ALIKE
PHENOTYPES
RISK‐MITIGATION IRONY
IMPOSTERS
THE DOGMA OF DIVERSIFICATION
INDUCTIVE DICE
Holism. THE CUCKOO IN THE CLOCK
KEEPING BOTH EYES
CLINICAL TRIALS
THE COST‐AND‐EFFECT RELATIONSHIP
RESHUFFLING
AGNOSTICISM
OFFENSIVE DEFENSE
A NARROW, BROKEN WINDOW FRAME
LOOKING DOWN THE TRACK
THE GREAT PIRATES
Bold Conjectures. EPISTEMOLOGY
NEPTUNE OR VULCAN?
CASH IS KING
GO WITH THE FLOW
ALL THAT GLITTERS
THE SAFE HAVEN FRONTIER
WHISTLING PAST THE GRAVEYARD
AFTERWORD
LOOKING BACK
THE ONE, AND ONLY ONE, PATH
THE WILLIAM TELL SHOT
PIRATE TREASURE
A FORMULA FOR GREATNESS
“I HAVE FORGOTTEN MY UMBRELLA.”
Acknowledgments
Index
WILEY END USER LICENSE AGREEMENT
Отрывок из книги
MARK SPITZNAGEL
Poisoned in the bushes an’ blown out on the trail
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This leads to principle number three: If a risk‐mitigation strategy achieves its purpose by cost‐effectively lowering a portfolio's risk, then adding that strategy raises the portfolio's CAGR over time.
It makes sense. If we mitigate risk effectively by constraining it deliberately, shouldn't the point be to experience less loss as a result, such that over time we end up making more? And if we don't end up making more, will we still be glad we did it? What would the point have been? Is there any other reason to mitigate risk?
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