What's Wrong with NATO and How to Fix it

What's Wrong with NATO and How to Fix it
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NATO, the most successful alliance in history, is beset by unresolved tensions and divergent interests that are undermining its cohesion, credibility and capability. In this new book, Mark Webber, James Sperling and Martin Smith explore four key post-Cold War developments that threaten NATO's survival: an overextended geostrategic reach and an unwieldly security policy portfolio; a failure to address capability short-falls and meet defence spending benchmarks; US weariness and European wariness that call NATO into question; and intra-alliance discord over Russia’s place in the European security order and how to deal with Moscow’s destabilization of Georgia and Ukraine. The authors propose in response a range of policy options that could reinvigorate NATO, but conclude with a note of caution. Alliances come and go and most are cast into the dustbin of history. If NATO is to avoid this fate, it must not only address the major problems that trouble it, but also get to grips with future challenges to alliance cohesion and credibility, from Brexit to the emerging contest with China.

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Mark Webber. What's Wrong with NATO and How to Fix it

CONTENTS

Guide

List of Tables

List of Boxes

Pages

What’s wrong? Series

What’s Wrong with NATO and How to Fix It

Preface and Acknowledgements

Notes

Abbreviations

Introduction: What Is Wrong with NATO?

NATO’s Predicament

No, NATO Is Not Finished

NATO is not in terminal decline

NATO is unique

There is no substitute for NATO

NATO is strategically aware

No organization is perfect

In Summary

Notes

CHAPTER ONE Doing Too Much: The Problem of Task Proliferation

Task Proliferation

Strategic Overload

The Roots of the Problem

NATO as an Institution

NATO’s Politics

America’s Foreign Policy Priorities

Liberal Ideas and Liberal Order

NATO’s Treadmill of Problems

Hard Choices

Imprecision

Thin Commitment

Fragmentation

Conclusion: Walking and Chewing Gum

Notes

CHAPTER TWO Weary or Wary? The Problem of American Leadership in NATO

The Transatlantic Bargain: Coming Unstuck Again

The Difficulty of Collective Action

Grand Strategy, American Foreign Policy and NATO

Conclusion: Reluctant and Indispensable

Notes

CHAPTER THREE Fiscal Constraints, Military Capabilities and Burden-Sharing

Defence Spending in an Era of Fiscal Austerity

Military Capabilities and Force Projection Shortfalls

Capabilities

Force Deployment

NATO Military, Stabilization and Reconstruction Operations

Libya

Afghanistan

Conclusion: Learned Helplessness

Notes

CHAPTER FOUR NATO and Russia: Cold War Redux

NATO–Russia Relations in the 1990s

The Permanent Joint Council

The Kosovo crisis

NATO–Russia Relations in the Putin Era

The NATO–Russia Council

The Georgia crisis

The Ukraine crisis

Conclusion: The NATO–Russia Deep Freeze

Notes

CHAPTER FIVE Task Discretion: Doing Less but Better

Matching Means to Ends

The Need for Prudence

NATO’s Need for Strategy

Options for Consolidation

Retreat

Routine

Retrenchment and revival

Conclusion: A Strategic Centre of Gravity

Notes

CHAPTER SIX American Leadership or European Autonomy?

US Leadership and Public Opinion: A Foundation for Optimism

Support for NATO

American leadership

European followership

The Institutional Sources of American Leadership

The Institutional Sources of European Followership

American Foreign Policy: A Jacksonian Ascendancy?

Conclusion: Striking a Viable Transatlantic Bargain

Notes

CHAPTER SEVEN Cash, Capabilities and NATO Effectiveness

Operational Burden-Sharing: A Fair Share?

Measuring the Defence Burden: Shooting at the Right Target

Box 7.1 Alliance contribution rating

Aggregating Capabilities

The NATO Defence Planning Process

Shared capabilities

‘Smart’ capabilities

Working with the EU

‘Clustered’ allies40

Conclusion: Quality or Quantity?

Notes

CHAPTER EIGHT Mending NATO–Russia Relations

Option 1: Enhancing Pan-European Security Structures

Option 2: Russian Membership of NATO

Option 3: ‘Concert’-Type Management of Regional Security in Eastern Europe

Option 4: Reviving the NATO–Russia Council (NRC)

Option 5: Tacit Understandings on Future NATO Enlargement

Conclusion: A Tacit NATO–Russia Security Regime

Notes

Conclusion: Improvement, Repair and NATO’s Future

How to Fix NATO. Task discretion

American leadership

Resourcing, capabilities and operational credibility

Relations with the Russia

What’s Next? Through a Glass, Darkly

Brexit

China

The COVID-19 pandemic

Conclusion: Fixing NATO

Notes

Index

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H

I

J

K

L

M

N

O

P

Q

R

S

T

U

V

W

Y

Z

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If we accept such views, then NATO would have to be judged against a very low bar, it being just one more flawed and ineffectual international body. Such a starting point would colour both our diagnosis of the problems besetting the Alliance and prescriptions for how to attend to them. We would, in short, steer to a rather limited range of options aware that NATO’s influence in the world was constrained and its future uncertain. Such a view is not without its merits. Indeed, even NATO’s defenders hold to some of its assumptions, not least the view that the Alliance is an arena in which the interests of its members are presented and sometimes collide, and that, ultimately, the US runs the show.

The following chapters demonstrate, however, that such a view is overstated and, in certain regards, inaccurate. The premise we follow in this book is aligned more with the institutionalist view that organizations can have significant effects.30 This does not mean that organizations are detached from their members – far from it. NATO, we suggest, has endured precisely because it serves its members’ interests. It offers ‘value-added’ to the allies in the shape of permanent, tried and trusted military and political cooperation. It goes beyond an alliance of convenience, coordinating defence and security in ways the allies could achieve neither alone nor in temporary coalition.

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