Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet

Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet
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An eye-opening and vital account of the future of our earth and our civilisation if current rates of global warming persist, by the highly acclaimed author of ‘High Tide’.Picture yourself a few decades from now, in a world in which average temperatures are three degrees higher than they are now. On the edge of Greenland, rivers ten times the size of the Amazon are gushing off the ice sheet into the north Atlantic. Displaced victims of North Africa's drought establish a new colony on Greenland's southern tip, one of the few inhabitable areas not already crowded with environmental refugees. Vast pumping systems keep the water out of most of Holland, but the residents of Bangladesh and the Nile Delta enjoy no such protection. Meanwhile, in New York, a Category 5-plus superstorm pushes through the narrows between Staten Island and Brooklyn, devastating waterside areas from Long Island to Manhattan. Pakistan, crippled by drought brought on by disappearing Himalayan glaciers, sees 27 million farmers flee to refugee camps in neighbouring India. Its desperate government prepares a last-ditch attempt to increase the flow of the Indus river by bombing half-constructed Indian dams in Kashmir. The Pakistani president authorises the use of nuclear weapons in the case of an Indian military counter-strike. But the biggest story of all comes from South America, where a conflagration of truly epic proportions has begun to consume the Amazon…Alien as it all sounds, Mark Lynas's incredible new book is not science-fiction; nor is it sensationalist. The six degrees of the title refer to the terrifying possibility that average temperatures will rise by up to six degrees within the next hundred years. This is the first time we have had a reliable picture of how the collapse of our civilisation will unfold unless urgent action is taken.Most vitally, Lynas's book serves to highlight the fact that the world of 2100 doesn't have to be one of horror and chaos. With a little foresight, some intelligent strategic planning, and a reasonable dose of good luck, we can at least halt the catastrophic trend into which we have fallen. But the time to act is now.

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Mark Lynas. Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet

Table of Contents

INTRODUCTION

1 ONE DEGREE

2 TWO DEGREES

3 THREE DEGREES

4 FOUR DEGREES

5 FIVE DEGREES

6 SIX DEGREES

7 CHOOSING OUR FUTURE

NOTES. INTRODUCTION

1 ONE DEGREE

2 TWO DEGREES

3 THREE DEGREES

4 FOUR DEGREES

5 FIVE DEGREES

6 SIX DEGREES

7 CHOOSING OUR FUTURE

INDEX

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Copyright

About the Publisher

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SIX DEGREES

Our Future on a Hotter Planet

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Here is where the tipping point comes in. Whilst bright white, snow-covered ice reflects more than 80 per cent of the Sun's heat that falls on it, the darker open ocean can absorb up to 95 per cent of incoming solar radiation. Once sea ice begins to melt, in other words, the process quickly becomes self-reinforcing: more ocean surface is revealed, absorbing solar heat, raising temperatures and making it more difficult for the ice to re-form during the next winter. Climate models differ about exactly where the Arctic sea ice tipping point may lie, but virtually all of them agree that once we are past a certain threshold of warming the disappearance of the entire northern polar ice cap is pretty much unavoidable.

These models suggest that we have not yet reached this critical tipping point-but it may not lie very far away. One model run projects a sudden collapse in sea ice cover after 2024, with four million square kilometres of ice melting away in the following ten years. In this simulation, reported by a US-based team led by Marika Holland of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, the whole ocean becomes virtually ice-free in summertime by 2040. Whilst other model runs examined by the same team don't cross the tipping point until 2030 or 2040, one simulates a collapse in sea ice production beginning as early as 2012.

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