Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet
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Оглавление
Mark Lynas. Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet
Table of Contents
INTRODUCTION
1 ONE DEGREE
2 TWO DEGREES
3 THREE DEGREES
4 FOUR DEGREES
5 FIVE DEGREES
6 SIX DEGREES
7 CHOOSING OUR FUTURE
NOTES. INTRODUCTION
1 ONE DEGREE
2 TWO DEGREES
3 THREE DEGREES
4 FOUR DEGREES
5 FIVE DEGREES
6 SIX DEGREES
7 CHOOSING OUR FUTURE
INDEX
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Copyright
About the Publisher
Отрывок из книги
SIX DEGREES
Our Future on a Hotter Planet
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Here is where the tipping point comes in. Whilst bright white, snow-covered ice reflects more than 80 per cent of the Sun's heat that falls on it, the darker open ocean can absorb up to 95 per cent of incoming solar radiation. Once sea ice begins to melt, in other words, the process quickly becomes self-reinforcing: more ocean surface is revealed, absorbing solar heat, raising temperatures and making it more difficult for the ice to re-form during the next winter. Climate models differ about exactly where the Arctic sea ice tipping point may lie, but virtually all of them agree that once we are past a certain threshold of warming the disappearance of the entire northern polar ice cap is pretty much unavoidable.
These models suggest that we have not yet reached this critical tipping point-but it may not lie very far away. One model run projects a sudden collapse in sea ice cover after 2024, with four million square kilometres of ice melting away in the following ten years. In this simulation, reported by a US-based team led by Marika Holland of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, the whole ocean becomes virtually ice-free in summertime by 2040. Whilst other model runs examined by the same team don't cross the tipping point until 2030 or 2040, one simulates a collapse in sea ice production beginning as early as 2012.
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