Wayward Comet:
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Martin Beech. Wayward Comet:
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THE WAYWARD COMET
A DESCRIPTIVE HISTORY OF COMETARY ORBITS, KEPLER’S PROBLEM AND THE COMETARIUM
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In his 1705 Synopsis Halley sagely writes that, “astronomers have a large field to exercise themselves in for many ages, before they will be able to know the number of these many great bodies [comets] revolving about the common center of the Sun; and reduce their motions to certain rules”. Indeed, the process of observing, recording and reducing orbits continues to this very day [2], although as of the end of 2012 just 272 comets are known to be periodic – that is observed at least twice (figure 1.9). Having decided that the comets of 1531, 1607 and 1682 were one and the same object, Halley goes on to argue that should it return in 1758 then, “we shall have no reason to doubt but the rest must return too”. Here Halley somewhat overstepped the mark and we find that of the 24 comets discussed by Halley, only two are actually periodic (accounting for 5 of the appearances in his table), with the remainder, some 19 comets, being single-encounter long-period bodies derived from the Oort cloud (see Appendix 1). Halley’s Comet was the only periodic comet known for well over 100 years; the orbit and past activity of the second periodic comet, comet 2P/Encke, being described by Johann Encke in 1819 (figure 1.9).
Figure 1.9: Cumulative number of known periodic comets (lower line) and comets observed (upper line) plotted against time: 1650 to 1950. While sightings of Halley’s Comet (indicated by large dots) can be traced back to 240 BC, we use the 1682 return as being its discovery year. Over the time interval considered in this data display, six of the periodic comets are now listed as being ‘lost’, and have either become totally dormant or have been destroyed through catastrophic fragmentation (see Appendix I).
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