Wayward Comet:

Wayward Comet:
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Comets have not only blazed across the celestial vault throughout human history, they have embellished the night sky since the Earth itself formed some 4.5 billion years ago. Comets were among the first-born solid bodies in the solar system, and their frozen nuclei tell of the primordial chemistry and chaos that ultimately resulted in the formation of the planets, the evolution of life and us. For all this, however, comets have long been celestial oddities: they baffled our distant ancestors, and human society continues to marvel and speculate wildly at their appearance even to the present day. Cutting against the perceived constancy of the stars, comets seemingly present themselves at random times and they are often interpreted as harbingers of terrestrial change – both good and ill. How then are we to tame the comet: where do they form, how do they move, and can their appearances be predicted? Such questions have preoccupied astronomers for centuries but comets have only gradually allowed the secrets of their wayward flight to be revealed. In this book I explore the historical struggle to understand not only the place of comets within a societal context, but also the scientific quest to make their paths amenable to mathematical certitude. The latter narrative is the more technical in content, but it took tactile form with the invention, in 1732, of the cometarium, a mechanical device to demonstrate the first two of Kepler's planetary laws. And, this development was later paralleled, in the mid to late 19th century, by the development of various mechanical devices (analog computers) to help obtain solutions to Kepler's Problem – the problem which asks, exactly where in its orbit is a given comet at some specific set time. The telling of the wayward comets story covers the past two millennia of human history, and it takes us from the phenomenological musings of Aristotle, through the exactitude of Newton's gravitational theory and calculus, to the truly incredible study of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko, by the European Space Agency's Rosetta spacecraft, in the modern era.

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Martin Beech. Wayward Comet:

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THE WAYWARD COMET

A DESCRIPTIVE HISTORY OF COMETARY ORBITS, KEPLER’S PROBLEM AND THE COMETARIUM

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In his 1705 Synopsis Halley sagely writes that, “astronomers have a large field to exercise themselves in for many ages, before they will be able to know the number of these many great bodies [comets] revolving about the common center of the Sun; and reduce their motions to certain rules”. Indeed, the process of observing, recording and reducing orbits continues to this very day [2], although as of the end of 2012 just 272 comets are known to be periodic – that is observed at least twice (figure 1.9). Having decided that the comets of 1531, 1607 and 1682 were one and the same object, Halley goes on to argue that should it return in 1758 then, “we shall have no reason to doubt but the rest must return too”. Here Halley somewhat overstepped the mark and we find that of the 24 comets discussed by Halley, only two are actually periodic (accounting for 5 of the appearances in his table), with the remainder, some 19 comets, being single-encounter long-period bodies derived from the Oort cloud (see Appendix 1). Halley’s Comet was the only periodic comet known for well over 100 years; the orbit and past activity of the second periodic comet, comet 2P/Encke, being described by Johann Encke in 1819 (figure 1.9).

Figure 1.9: Cumulative number of known periodic comets (lower line) and comets observed (upper line) plotted against time: 1650 to 1950. While sightings of Halley’s Comet (indicated by large dots) can be traced back to 240 BC, we use the 1682 return as being its discovery year. Over the time interval considered in this data display, six of the periodic comets are now listed as being ‘lost’, and have either become totally dormant or have been destroyed through catastrophic fragmentation (see Appendix I).

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