The Success Equation

The Success Equation
Автор книги: id книги: 1642771     Оценка: 0.0     Голосов: 0     Отзывы, комментарии: 0 3910,36 руб.     (37,22$) Читать книгу Купить и скачать книгу Купить бумажную книгу Электронная книга Жанр: Экономика Правообладатель и/или издательство: Ingram Дата добавления в каталог КнигаЛит: ISBN: 9781422184240 Скачать фрагмент в формате   fb2   fb2.zip Возрастное ограничение: 0+ Оглавление Отрывок из книги

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“Much of what we experience in life results from a combination of skill and luck.” — From the IntroductionThe trick, of course, is figuring out just how many of our successes (and failures) can be attributed to each—and how we can learn to tell the difference ahead of time.In most domains of life, skill and luck seem hopelessly entangled. Different levels of skill and varying degrees of good and bad luck are the realities that shape our lives—yet few of us are adept at accurately distinguishing between the two. Imagine what we could accomplish if we were able to tease out these two threads, examine them, and use the resulting knowledge to make better decisions. In this provocative book, Michael Mauboussin helps to untangle these intricate strands to offer the structure needed to analyze the relative importance of skill and luck. He offers concrete suggestions for making these insights work to your advantage. Once we understand the extent to which skill and luck contribute to our achievements, we can learn to deal with them in making decisions.The Success Equation helps us move toward this goal by:• Establishing a foundation so we better understand skill and luck, and can pinpoint where each is most relevant• Helping us develop the analytical tools necessary to understand skill and luck• Offering concrete suggestions about how to take these findings and put them to workShowcasing Mauboussin’s trademark wit, insight, and analytical genius, The Success Equation is a must-read for anyone seeking to make better decisions—in business and in life.

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Michael J. Mauboussin. The Success Equation

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Harvard Business Review Press

Boston, Massachusetts

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Jeffrey Ma was one of the leaders of a notorious team of blackjack players from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. To make money, the team counted cards. Their system had two crucial components. First, team members fanned out and counted cards at a number of different tables in order to determine which tables were attractive. In this initial phase, the players stuck to small stakes. They were playing solely to determine if the cards that remained in the shoe had a relatively large number of high cards. The more high cards, the greater the chance that the player will win a hand. When a player found an attractive table, a teammate would join him and place large bets in order to win as much money as possible. As described in Ben Mezrich's best-selling book, Bringing Down the House, the team could express the attractiveness of the table and how large the bets should be with mathematical precision.19

Ma and his team were acutely aware of the influence that luck could have and therefore stayed focused on their decision-making process. Indeed, Ma recounts an instance when he lost $100,000 in just two rounds over the course of ten minutes, even though he played his cards just right: “The quality of the decision can be evaluated by the logic and information I used in arriving at my decision. Over time, if one makes good, quality decisions, one will generally receive better outcomes, but it takes a large sample set to prove this.”20 In other words, he has to place a lot of bets in order to win, because this game involves a lot of skill but it also involves a lot of luck.

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