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Morecroft John D.. Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics
About the Author
Foreword by Peter Checkland
Preface to the Second Edition
Preface from the First Edition3
Manufacturing Dynamics and Information Networks
Bounded Rationality and Behavioural Decision Making
Modelling for Learning
The Dynamics of Strategy
Soft Systems and Complementary Modelling Methods
How to Use This Book
MBA and Modular/Executive MBA
Non-Degree Executive Education
Undergraduate and Specialist
CHAPTER 1. The Appeal and Power of Strategic Modelling
Introduction7
A New Approach to Modelling
The Puzzling Dynamics of International Fisheries
Model of a Natural Fishery
Operating a Simple Harvested Fishery
Preview of the Book and Topics Covered
Appendix – Archive Materials from World Dynamics
References
CHAPTER 2. Introduction to Feedback Systems Thinking
Ways of Interpreting Situations in Business and Society
A Start on Causal Loop Diagrams
Structure and Behaviour Through Time – Feedback Loops and the Dynamics of a Slow-to-Respond Shower
From Events to Dynamics and Feedback – Drug-related Crime
Purpose of Causal Loop Diagrams – A Summary
Feedback Structure and Dynamics of a Technology-based Growth Business
Causal Loop Diagrams – Basic Tips
Causal Loop Diagram of Psychological Pressures and Unintended Haste in a Troubled Internet Start-Up
References
CHAPTER 3. Modelling Dynamic Systems
Asset Stock Accumulation
The Coordinating Network
Modelling Symbols in Use: A Closer Look at Drug-related Crime
Equation Formulations
Experiments with the Model of Drug-related Crime
Benefits of Model Building and Simulation
References
CHAPTER 4. World of Showers
Getting Started
Redesigning Your World of Showers
Inside World of Showers
Simulations of World of Showers B
References
CHAPTER 5. Cyclical Dynamics and the Process of Model Building
An Overview of the Modelling Process
Employment and Production Instability – Puzzling Performance Over Time
Equation Formulations and Computations in Production Control
Modelling Workforce Management and Factory Production Dynamics
Equation Formulations in Workforce Management
Chronic Cyclicality in Employment and Production and How to Cure It
Modelling for Learning and Soft Systems
Appendix 1: Model Communication and Policy Structure Diagrams
Appendix 2: The Dynamics of Information Smoothing
References
CHAPTER 6. The Dynamics of Growth from Diffusion
Stocks and Flows in New Product Adoption – A Conceptual Diffusion Model
The Bass Model – An Elegant Special Case of a Diffusion Model
A Variation on the Diffusion Model: The Rise of Low-cost Air Travel in Europe
Strategy and Simulation of Growth Scenarios
Conclusion
Appendix: More About the Fliers Model
References
CHAPTER 7. Managing Business Growth
A Conceptual Model of Market Growth and Capital Investment
Formulation Guidelines for Portraying Feedback Structure
An Information Feedback View of Management and Policy
Policy Structure and Formulations for Sales Growth
Policy Structure and Formulations for Limits to Sales Growth
Policy Structure and Formulations for Capital Investment
Simulation Experiments
Redesign of the Investment Policy
Policy Design, Growth and Dynamic Complexity
Conclusion
Appendix – Gain of a Reinforcing Loop
References
CHAPTER 8. Industry Dynamics – Oil Price and the Global Oil Producers
Problem Articulation – Puzzling Dynamics of Oil Price
Model Development Process
A Closer Look at the Stakeholders and Their Investment Decision Making
Connecting the Pieces – A Feedback Systems View
A Simple Thought Experiment: Green Mindset and Global Recession
Using the Model to Generate Scenarios
Devising New Scenarios
Endnote: A Brief History of the Oil Producers' Project
References
CHAPTER 9. Public Sector Applications of Strategic Modelling
Urban Dynamics – Growth and Stagnation in Cities
Medical Workforce Dynamics and Patient Care
Fishery Dynamics and Regulatory Policy
Conclusion
Appendix – Alternative Simulation Approaches
References
CHAPTER 10. Model Validity, Mental Models and Learning
Mental Models, Transitional Objects and Formal Models
Models of Business and Social Systems
Tests for Building Confidence in Models
Model Confidence Building Tests in Action: A Case Study in Fast-moving Consumer Goods
Model Structure Tests and the Soap Industry Model
Equation Formulation Tests and the Soap Industry Model
Tests of Learning from Simulation
Summary of Confidence Building Tests
Conclusion – Model Fidelity and Usefulness
Endnote: The Loops of Feedback
References
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John Morecroft is Senior Fellow in Management Science and Operations at London Business School where he has taught system dynamics, problem structuring and strategy in MBA, PhD and Executive Education programmes. He served as Associate Dean of the School's Executive MBA and co-designed EMBA-Global, a dual degree programme with New York's Columbia Business School. He is a leading expert in system dynamics and strategic modelling. His publications include numerous journal articles and three co-edited books. He is a recipient of the Jay Wright Forrester Award of the System Dynamics Society for his work on bounded rationality, information feedback and behavioural decision making in models of the firm. He is a Past President of the Society and one of its Founding Members. His research interests include the dynamics of firm performance and the use of models and simulation in strategy development. He has led applied research projects for international organisations including Royal Dutch/Shell, AT&T, BBC World Service, Cummins Engine Company, Ford of Europe, Harley-Davidson, Ericsson, McKinsey & Co and Mars. Before joining London Business School he was on the faculty of MIT's Sloan School of Management where he received his PhD. He also holds degrees in Operational Research from Imperial College, London and in Physics from Bristol University.
Many areas of human activity reveal dynamics of this type, with several classic patterns of behaviour: exponential growth or decline; oscillation; S-shaped growth; growth followed by collapse, etc.
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An important consequence of my collaboration with Arie and Shell was the launch, at London Business School, of a week-long residential executive education programme called Systems Thinking and Strategic Modelling (STSM). The programme used learning-by-doing to engage executives with the core principles of feedback systems thinking and system dynamics modelling. Chapter 2 (Introduction to Feedback Systems Thinking) and Chapter 3 (Modelling Dynamic Systems) are derived from STSM. Moreover, the programme brought together, for a period of 10 years, a faculty team at London Business School that helped to develop system dynamics in many important ways and materially contributed to the content of this book. The team members were Arie de Geus, Erik Larsen, Ann van Ackere and Kim Warren and then later Shayne Gary. I enjoyed working with this special group of people and know that together we accomplished a great deal. Thanks to you all.
The shower models in Chapter 4 were sparked by Erik Larsen who felt, in the spirit of modelling for learning, that we shouldn't simply lecture STSM participants about the tricky balancing loop in a shower ‘system’. Instead, we should build a simulator that would allow participants to see (or even experience) the resulting dynamics. So together we developed prototype simulators that became the basis for the World of Showers A and B models in Chapter 4. Alessandro Lomi and Ari Ginsberg later joined us to write a journal article based on these models, entitled ‘The dynamics of resource sharing – a metaphorical model’. Two MBA students at London Business School, Thomas Furst and Derrick D'Souza, helped me to develop an early version of the gaming interface, and my wife Linda Morecroft worked on the user guide and interface enhancements for World of Showers.
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