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Pamela Baker. Decision Intelligence For Dummies
Decision Intelligence For Dummies® To view this book's Cheat Sheet, simply go to www.dummies.com and search for “Decision Intelligence For Dummies Cheat Sheet” in the Search box. Table of Contents
List of Tables
List of Illustrations
Guide
Pages
Introduction
About This Book
Conventions Used in This Book
Foolish Assumptions
What You Don’t Have to Read
How This Book Is Organized
Part 1: Getting Started with Decision Intelligence
Part 2: Reaching the Best Possible Decision
Part 3: Establishing Reality Checks
Part 4: Proposing a New Directive
Part 5: The Part of Tens
Icons Used in This Book
Beyond the Book
Where to Go from Here
Getting Started with Decision Intelligence
Short Takes on Decision Intelligence
The Tale of Two Decision Trails
Pointing out the way
Making a decision
A history lesson
The current turn to decision intelligence
Deputizing AI as Your Faithful Sidekick
Seeing How Decision Intelligence Looks on Paper
Tracking the Inverted V
Estimating How Much Decision Intelligence Will Cost You
Mining Data versus Minding the Answer
Knowledge Is Power — Data Is Just Information
Experiencing the epiphany
Embracing the new, not-so-new idea
Avoiding thought boxes and data query borders
DATA ANALYSIS RUTS AND ROAMS
Reinventing Actionable Outcomes
Living with the fact that we have answers and still don’t know what to do
Going where humans fear to tread on data
Ushering in The Great Revival: Institutional knowledge and human expertise
Cryptic Patterns and Wild Guesses
Machines Make Human Mistakes, Too
Seeing the Trouble Math Makes
The limits of math-only approaches
The right math for the wrong question
Why data scientists and statisticians often make bad question-makers
Identifying Patterns and Missing the Big Picture
All the helicopters are broken
MIA: Chunks of crucial but hard-to-get real-world data
Evaluating man-versus-machine in decision-making
The Inverted V Approach
Putting Data First Is the Wrong Move
What’s a decision, anyway?
Any road will take you there
The great rethink when it comes to making decisions at scale
Applying the Upside-Down V: The Path to the Output and Back Again
Evaluating Your Inverted V Revelations
Having Your Inverted V Lightbulb Moment
Recognizing Why Things Go Wrong
Aiming for too broad an outcome
Mimicking data outcomes
Failing to consider other decision sciences
Mistaking gut instincts for decision science
Failing to change the culture
Reaching the Best Possible Decision
Shaping a Decision into a Query
Defining Smart versus Intelligent
Discovering That Business Intelligence Is Not Decision Intelligence
Discovering the Value of Context and Nuance
Defining the Action You Seek
Setting Up the Decision
Decision science versus data science
Framing your decision
Heuristics and other leaps of faith
Mapping a Path Forward
Putting Data Last
Recognizing when you can (and should) skip the data entirely
Leaning on CRISP-DM
Using the result you seek to identify the data you need
Digital decisioning and decision intelligence
Don’t store all your data — know when to throw it out
Adding More Humans to the Equation
TEST THE RESULT YOU SEEK — IS IT THE ONE?
The shift in thinking at the business line level
How decision intelligence puts executives and ordinary humans back in charge
Limiting Actions to What Your Company Will Actually Do
Looking at budgets versus the company will
Setting company culture against company resources
Using long-term decisioning to craft short-term returns
Your DI Toolbox
Decision Intelligence Is a Rethink, Not a Data Science Redo
Taking Stock of What You Already Have
The tool overview
Working with BI apps
Accessing cloud tools
Taking inventory and finding the gaps
Adding Other Tools to the Mix
Decision modeling software
Business rule management systems
Machine learning and model stores
Data platforms
Data visualization tools
Option round-up
Taking a Look at What Your Computing Stack Should Look Like Now
Establishing Reality Checks
Taking a Bow: Goodbye, Data Scientists — Hello, Data Strategists
Making Changes in Organizational Roles
Leveraging your current data scientist roles
Realigning your existing data teams
Looking at Emerging DI Jobs
Hiring data strategists versus hiring decision strategists
Onboarding mechanics and pot washers
The Chief Data Officer’s Fate
Freeing Executives to Lead Again
Trusting AI and Tackling Scary Things
Discovering the Truth about AI
Thinking in AI
Thinking in human
Letting go of your ego
Seeing Whether You Can Trust AI
Finding out why AI is hard to test and harder to understand
Hearing AI's confession
Two AIs Walk into a Bar …
Doing the right math but asking the wrong question
Dealing with conflicting outputs
Battling AIs
Meddling Data and Mindful Humans
Engaging with Decision Theory
Working with your gut instincts
Looking at the role of the social sciences
Examining the role of the managerial sciences
The Role of Data Science in Decision Intelligence
Fitting data science to decision intelligence
Reimagining the rules
Expanding the notion of a data source
Where There's a Will, There's a Way
Decisions at Scale
Plugging and Unplugging AI into Automation
Dealing with Model Drifts and Bad Calls
Reining in AutoML
Seeing the Value of ModelOps
Bracing for Impact
Decide and dedicate
Make decisions with a specific impact in mind
Metrics and Measures
Living with Uncertainty
Making the Decision
Seeing How Much a Decision Is Worth
Matching the Metrics to the Measure
Leaning into KPIs
Tapping into change data
Testing AI
Deciding When to Weigh the Decision and When to Weigh the Impact
Proposing a New Directive
The Role of DI in the Idea Economy
Turning Decisions into Ideas
Repeating previous successes
Predicting new successes
Weighing the value of repeating successes versus creating new successes
Leveraging AI to find more idea patterns
THE NEW DIRECTIVE
Disruption Is the Point
Creative problem-solving is the new competitive edge
Bending the company culture
Competing in the Moment
Changing Winds and Changing Business Models
Counting Wins in Terms of Impacts
Seeing How Decision Intelligence Changes Industries and Markets
Facing the What-If Challenge
What-if analysis in scenarios in Excel
What-if analysis using a Data Tables feature
What-if analysis using a Goal Seek feature
Learning Lessons from the Pandemic
Refusing to make decisions in a vacuum
Living with toilet paper shortages and supply chain woes
Revamping businesses overnight
Seeing how decisions impact more than the Land of Now
Rebuilding at the Speed of Disruption
Redefining Industries
Trickle-Down and Streaming-Up Decisioning
Understanding the Who, What, Where, and Why of Decision-Making
Trickling Down Your Upstream Decisions
Looking at Streaming Decision-Making Models
Making Downstream Decisions
Thinking in Systems
Taking Advantage of Systems Tools
Conforming and Creating at the Same Time
Directing Your Business Impacts to a Common Goal
Dealing with Decision Singularities
Revisiting the Inverted V
Career Makers and Deal-Breakers
Taking the Machine’s Advice
Adding Your Own Take
Mastering your decision intelligence superpowers
Ensuring that you have great data sidekicks
The New Influencers: Decision Masters
Preventing Wrong Influences from Affecting Decisions
Bad influences in AI and analytics
The blame game
Ugly politics and happy influencers
Risk Factors in Decision Intelligence
DI and Hyperautomation
The Part of Tens
Ten Steps to Setting Up a Smart Decision
Check Your Data Source
Track Your Data Lineage
Know Your Tools
Use Automated Visualizations
Impact = Decision
Do Reality Checks
Limit Your Assumptions
Think Like a Science Teacher
Solve for Missing Data
Partial versus incomplete data
Clues and missing answers
Take Two Perspectives and Call Me in the Morning
Bias In, Bias Out (and Other Pitfalls)
A Pitfalls Overview
Relying on Racist Algorithms
Following a Flawed Model for Repeat Offenders
Using A Sexist Hiring Algorithm
Redlining Loans
Leaning on Irrelevant Information
Falling Victim to Framing Foibles
Being Overconfident
Lulled by Percentages
Dismissing with Prejudice
Index. A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
O
P
Q
R
S
T
U
V
W
X
Y
Z
About the Book Author
Dedication
Author’s Acknowledgments
WILEY END USER LICENSE AGREEMENT
