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Raphael Kaplinsky. Sustainable Futures
Table of Contents
List of Tables
List of Illustrations
Guide
Pages
Praise
Sustainable Futures. An Agenda for Action
Copyright Page
Dedication
Figures
Tables
Preface
Acknowledgements
Notes
1 A Fork in the Road
2 The Rise and Fall of the Mass Production Economy
2.1 The Rise and Fall of Economic Growth, 1950–2018
2.2 What Accounts for the Fall in the Rate of Economic Growth?
Was it a consequence of a shortage of labour?
What about the contribution of investment to the growth slowdown?
And what about the productivity of investment?
2.3 Neo-liberalism and the Decline in Growth, Investment and Productivity
Free trade and the retreat from Industrial Policy – increasing imbalances between countries
The crisis in macroeconomic policy – matching demand with supply
Sustaining demand through Quantitative Easing
Growing financialization fuelled short-termism and dulled innovation
2.4 Can the Mass Production Paradigm Be Reinvigorated?
The Great Recession of 2007–2018 – the sticking plaster wears off
Debt continues to spiral
Volatility and fragility in the financial sector threaten the likelihood of a new stock market crash
Disruption to global supply chains
2.5 So What Does the Future Hold?
Notes
3 The Bumpy Ride to Social Decay
3.1 The Rise and Rise of Inequality
Changing patterns in the distribution of wealth
Changing patterns in the distribution of income
3.2 The Startling Growth of ‘Absolute Poverty’
3.3 Growing Inequality and Poverty Undermine Welfare and Social Solidarity
3.4 Neo-liberal Austerity Policies and the Power of the Plutocracy Caused Growing Inequality and Absolute Poverty
The contribution of neo-liberal austerity policies to rising inequality and poverty
The plutocracy promoted and legitimized austerity policies
3.5 The Fear of Migration Has Been Used to Fuel Populism
3.6 The Erosion of Liberal Democracy and the Rise of Populism Disrupt the Potential for Sustainable Growth
Notes
4 The Collapse of Environmental Sustainability
4.1 From the Dawn of Settled Agriculture to the Great Acceleration
4.2 The Transition to the Anthropocene – Take, Make, Use and Waste
‘Taking’ from the biosphere: the example of the energy vector
‘Making’ with what is ‘Taken’ – are we using the earth’s resources more efficiently?
Consumption: ‘Using’ what is ‘Made’
‘Waste’, in and after ‘Use’
4.3 It All Adds Up to a Crisis in Environmental Sustainability
Notes
5 Mass Production Runs Out of Steam
5.1 Learning from History – Successive Techno-Economic Paradigms since the Industrial Revolution. Growth surges and techno-economic paradigms
Learning from history
5.2 The Development, Deployment and Atrophy of the Mass Production Paradigm
The ‘Big Bang’ in Mass Production was followed by speculative frenzy, a financial crisis and the Great Depression
The deployment of Mass Production and the post-war Golden Age
Maturity deferred: the globalization of Mass Production
Complementary policy changes in low- and middle-income countries
5.3 Economic and Social Sustainability during the Mass Production Paradigm
The synergistic close fit between economic and social sustainability in the Golden Age
The erosion of synergy between economic and social sustainability after the Golden Age
5.4 The Crisis in Environmental Sustainability during the Mass Production Paradigm
5.5 Mass Production: The Balance Sheet
Notes
6 Information and Communication Technologies: The Motor of the New Techno-Economic Paradigm
6.1 The Emergence of the New Heartland Technology
6.2 Digital Logic – the Brains of the System
6.3 The Evolution of ICTs
Data storage and communication
Computer-integrated and flexible production systems
The Internet of Things
Big Data and Artificial Intelligence
6.4 Beyond Mass Production
ICTs provide the capacity to revive productivity growth
ICTs provide the capacity for decentralized production, and thus for bringing residence, production and consumption closer together
ICTs can provide the capacity to customize products to meet individual needs
ICTs can provide the capacity for shared, rather than individualized, consumption, and for repairable rather than throwaway products
ICTs can enhance the capacity for greener production systems, and for the development of renewable energy
ICTs provide for peer-to-peer communication that enhances civil society
6.5 Not Just Roses, Also Weeds in the Garden
Notes
7 Transformative Change in Practice
7.1 Mobile Telephones Transform the Financial Sector and Facilitate Economic and Social Inclusion
Mobile phones have promoted financial inclusion and renewable energy in Kenya
Social inclusion through access to renewable energy
Mobile telephony and techno-economic paradigms
7.2 Renewable Energy, Large Dams and Hydroelectric Power
Box 7.1Negative Impact of Large Dams
The impact of large hydro in the Zambesi River basin
Large dams also support irrigation
Is there an alternative to large-dam hydroelectricity?
Large hydro, renewables and techno-economic paradigms
7.3 Precision Farming and Robots in Agriculture
The extension of mass production in mechanized farming
ICTs, robotics and machine-learning can transform mechanized farming
Precision farming and techno-economic paradigms
7.4 Three Case-Studies – The Balance Sheet
Notes
8 What’s To Be Done?
8.1 The What – Visioning a More Sustainable Future
A more sustainable environment
A more sustainable economy
A more sustainable society
8.2 The How – What Actions Will Deliver a More Sustainable World?
Regulating and changing behaviour in the financial sector
Reducing the concentration of individual and corporate power
Box 8.1Market Dominance by the FAAMGs (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Google)
A Smart Green New Deal
Incentivizing changes in behaviour
Infrastructure to support the Circular Economy
Innovation to support the Green New Deal
Strengthening global and local governance
Promoting global development
8.3 The Elephant in the Room – Who Will Drive the Transition to a Sustainable World?
Notes
9 Who Will Do It? Making Change Happen
9.1 Entrepreneurship: Turning Fantasy into Fact
9.2 The Private Sector Provides the Motive Power, the State is at the Steering Wheel (and Sometimes Pays for the Petrol)
Beyond the private sector
9.3 Building Coalitions for Change
9.4 Change Is Cumulative
9.5 How to Jump Over Walls
Synergistic interventions
Governments must act decisively and with vision
Confronting reactionary power bases
9.6 Sequencing and Priorities: The Two-Shot Stimulus to a Paradigm Change and the Rebuilding of a Sustainable World
The trigger for change
Notes
Index
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