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Richard Farleigh. Taming the Lion
Publishing details
1 – Markets
2 – Comparative Advantages
3 – Risk
4 – Patterns and Anomalies
5 – Big Ideas
6 – Small Companies
7 – Price Behaviour
8 – The Understanding and Use of Trends in Prices
9 – Market Timing
10 – Avoiding Temptation
Introduction
Structure of the book
Chapter 1 – Markets
Chapter 2 – Comparative Advantages
Chapter 3 – Risk
Chapter 4 – Patterns and Anomalies
Chapter 5 – Big Ideas
Chapter 6 – Small Companies
Chapter 7 – Price Behaviour
Chapter 8 – The Understanding and Use of Trends in Prices
Chapter 9 – Market Timing
Chapter 10 – Avoiding Temptation
A brief biography by Janine Perrett
A day in the life
It can be profitable and exhilarating — but let’s start at the beginning
1. Markets. 1.0 The different markets have many useful similarities
Trading and investment are increasingly similar
Fundamentals
1.1 Fear the market
My mistakes
“A hard way to make an easy living”
1.2 Markets are more efficient than generally acknowledged
No opportunities in an efficient market
Fortunately, markets are not always efficient
1.3 Market opportunities are disappearing
The search for market inconsistencies
Not so easy now
1.4 The markets can overwhelm government intervention
1.5 The market is strengthened by speculation
George Soros and Black Wednesday
1.6 Respect the market not the experts
‘Experts’?
1.7 Most professionals are not outguessing the market
1.8 Listen and read very critically
1.9 Understand recent history
An inexpensive education
2. Comparative Advantages. 2.0 To outperform the market you need a comparative advantage
Trading fundamentals
Everyone needs an edge
2.1 Everybody is a hero in a bull market!
Don’t mistake luck for brains
2.2 Never stray from your comparative advantages
Bermuda’s comparative advantage
Call me Mr Sapphire
2.3 A small percentage advantage is enough to outperform the market
2.4 Test the advantage over time and make changes slowly
2.5 Financial markets advantage #1: Information
Face to face meetings are important
Insider information
2.6 Financial markets advantage #2: Original analysis
2.7 Financial markets advantage #3: Brokers and bankers have extra information and free insurance
Information from the order book
Free insurance
2.8 Financial markets advantage #4: Understanding market behaviour
The market opportunity research industry
2.9 The Strategies are based on six types of market behaviour
3. Risk. 3.0 Manage and embrace risk. Learning to deal with risk and losses
Backgammon rather than chess
3.1 Good ideas can lose money
Be philosophical
Addavita – algae production
MathEngine – computer graphics
Analysis after a loss
3.2 Asymmetry has fooled a lot of investors
Is the higher return worth the risk?
Professionals can get it wrong as well
3.3 Wild swings and losses are uncomfortable, but they may offer the best rewards
Opportunities may be found in areas that others find uncomfortable
3.4 Diversify
3.5 Assess risk - and then double it
Risk assessment is not always an exact science
How I assess my total risk
3.6 Risk adjust results after the trade
Home House experience
3.7 Qualities of the successful trader
Chess hustling proved good training
But chess players don’t normally make good traders
3.8 Trading pressure increases with amount at risk
A great flotation but then it all goes wrong
I should have followed the Strategies
The emotional side of investing must be recognised and controlled
Stress affected my investing
3.9 The trader’s dilemma - the stop-loss?
The decision not to cut
Unwired Group Limited
Summary on stop-losses
4. Patterns and Anomalies. 4.0 Look for patterns and anomalies
An inquisitive nature
Watch crowd behaviour
Think for yourself
4.1 Choose the right markets
4.2 The share market dilemma
4.3 Crisis situations almost always provide an opportunity
Panics can lead to an imbalance in supply and demand
The tech stock collapse offered opportunity
4.4 Short term interest rates will tend toward the inflation rate plus the economic growth rate
The basis for the strategy
4.5 Government bond markets for the major economies are not prone to crashes
Divergent behaviour of stocks and bonds after economic shocks
4.6 Currencies: two economies and fact or fashion?
Purchasing price parity is not much use
Market sentiment has the most impact
4.7 Some markets are driven by supply
4.8 Property prices often lag stock prices
There are always exceptions to rules
Property may be the easiest market
4.9 Chartists are the astrologers of the markets
Chartists have no scientific basis
5. Big Ideas. 5.0 Markets are slow to react to structural influences
Structural influences
5.1 Look for the next Big Thing
And the next Big Thing is…?
A bizarre global economy
Emerging products
5.2 Ignore obscure theories and observations
5.3 Only invest in the broad markets when they are in line with the prevailing economic environment
Long term opportunities when you invest with the prevailing environment
Be aware of the general economic situation
5.4 Be methodical – use a checklist to quantify and add rigour to a view
Benefits of a checklist
Monitoring economic growth and inflation
A check on getting carried away
5.5 Buy stocks when economic growth is strong and inflation is weak
Timing is important
Start with the economy
End of the cold war and the 1990s boom
Old theories may have had their day
5.6 Buy bonds when inflation and economic growth are both weak
Inflation has the bigger influence on bond yields
The big trends in the 20th century
One of the greatest trends – the fall in bond yields from the late 1980s
5.7 Buy commodities when inflation and economic growth are both strong
Trade in a basket of commodities
CRB Index
Long periods of high growth and high inflation are rare
The recent story has been all about China
Watch out for US dollar exposure
5.8 Few assets benefit when inflation is strong and economic growth is weak
1970s – a miserable decade
No easy answer to stagflation
5.9 You are unlikely to out-analyse the analysts
Top-down over bottom-up
6. Small Companies. 6.0 Small companies offer more opportunities than large companies
What is a small company?
Small companies offer the best risk-reward ratio
Small companies have a high failure rate
Small listed companies can be similar to unlisted companies
How to start
Investing in unlisted companies
More risky
The small company checklist
Checklist for small companies
6.1 The quality of a company’s management is by far the most crucial factor in determining its success
It is easier to assess the management of smaller companies than larger ones
Face to face meetings are important
The track record of the managers is also very useful
6.2 Determining the fair valuation is more difficult with small companies
Large share of a small market is preferable to small share of a large market
Kangaroo valuation
6.3 Clearly identify the comparative advantages
I want women
Not a popular idea at first
An expensive and difficult project
The importance of a comparative advantage
Delays: Viability or timing?
6.4 Be sure the business is sustainable
Wild pigs and volleyball
Immune to the economic cycle and investment fashions
6.5 Good products don’t always sell
My dotcom flirtation
Good quality at cost price
First, test the concept
6.6 Growth puts strains on small companies
Food scanning
Fishing for whales
Problems of dealing with large companies
Resources are often stretched
The challenge of international markets
6.7 Be sure of a route to exit and adequate cash resources
A world of heartache and loss
The company life cycle
Arguments between investors and company founders
Further rounds of funding
The process of finding private funding can be dangerous
The exit route must always be kept in mind
Try to be attractive
Flotation
Be wary of projections in business plans
6.8 Shareholders can help unlisted companies
Analyse your fellow shareholders
6.9 Be pragmatic with due diligence
How do you spell chip?
Trust the managers
Radiation Watch
7. Price Behaviour. 7.0 Prices go further than expected
My longest trade
Stay with the winners – don’t get shaken out
7.1 Forget the old price
“Ridiculous oil”
Which price is wrong?
7.2 People often misjudge probability and logic
Errors involving simple logic
High profile events are overestimated
Unusual events do happen
Traps for investors
Hindsight and over-confidence
7.3 A price is an average of possibilities
Calculating price probabilities
But you can’t be too precise
The current price is bound to move one way or another
7.4 The probability can be asymmetric
Some markets perennially go up slowly and down quickly
7.5 Be nervous when a market doesn’t rally on good news
If buyers don’t want to buy when there is good news, when will they?
7.6 Don’t day trade!
Only day trade if you are at the coalface
7.7 Avoid trading in options if you do not understand their pricing
A simple approach to option pricing
7.8 Back your hunches with a small investment at least
Get involved
Paper trading is not a substitute
7.9 Features of good trading models
Different types of trading models
The need for an underlying theory
Be wary of data mining
Keep it simple
8. The Understanding and Use of Trends in Prices. 8.0 There is statistical proof that market prices trend
Blind Freddy loves charts
Economics theory suggests trends don’t exist
Trend Trader
The implications of trending markets
8.1 Trends operate across commodities, currencies, interest rates, stocks and property
Analysis of trending across many different markets
Analysis of trending across many different markets continued
8.2 Trends have been in operation for a long time
A comparative advantage that can be tested
Trend following is becoming more popular
8.3 It is not true that markets usually overreact
8.4 Trends are resistant despite being well-known
The phenomena of trends will survive
8.5 Trends represent the gradual dispersal of information
What does the news really mean?
What if there’s no monthly announcement?
8.6 Price reaction is delayed by inertia and scepticism
Herd instinct slows re-evaluation of forecasts
8.7 A rising price attracts buyers
It’s all about the future
Psychology
8.8 Economic cycles breed market cycles
8.9 News against the trend is often ignored
Look at history to understand how markets have behaved to specific events in the past
Market response to news is dependent on the prevailing trend
9. Market Timing. 9.0 Combine fundamentals with price action
Trading rules
Two successful trading styles combined into one
9.1 Ignore the noise in price movements
Decide what is the trend direction
9.2 Don’t be a hero - do not buy falling markets
Never forget: markets move further than expected and they move in trends
Fighting the trend is for mugs
9.3 Trade with the trend - wait for the trend before you enter the market
One of the most important Strategies
9.4 Add to winning trades, not losing trades
Ruining markets
Don’t add to losing trades
Cutting losing positions
9.5 It is safe to be with the consensus
1990s fall of the Japanese stock market
Strong oil prices
9.6 Do not use price targets or time limits
The winners have to outbalance the losers
Time limits on investments should be unnecessary
The time to get out is when the trend reverses
9.7 If the fundamentals have changed, adjust the position accordingly
How to value growth oriented tech companies?
The fundamentals had changed
9.8 You will not get the high or the low
A slot machine trade
Always leave some money on the table
9.9 A powerful model shows probability is on your side
Trend Trader has worked in theory and practice
Our trading style mimics Trend Trader
But we can do even better…
10. Avoiding Temptation. 10.0 Know when to stay out of the market
Sometimes the best trade is no trade at all
US dollar fundamentals are currently confusing
Be careful at the end of long trends
Wait for a great trade to come along
10.1 Identify what is difficult about the existing environment; It may change
The market took a long time to assimilate what happened in Iraq
10.2 Monitoring trends may alert you to opportunities you wouldn’t normally find
Alerted to new markets
Monitoring individual sectors can be done manually
Summary
10.3 With success, bank some profits
Learn from former billionaires
Always mark-to-market your positions
10.4 Negotiation is an art
10.5 The evolution of the con artist
Many different cons
Alarm bells
10.6 Wealth preservation is not simple
The 3% Rule
The era of low risk, high returns is over for the moment
10.7 Be sceptical of sophisticated retail products
Many financial retail products depend on sleight of hand
The more complicated the product, the more chance to disguise fees
Many banks don’t even understand these products
Summary
10.8 Management and brokerage fees should be minimal in a passive portfolio
The bank wants fees
Ask for market prices
10.9 Follow these strategies and be part of the hedge fund (r)evolution
Hedge funds are currently the financial fashion
Hedge funds are a part of natural financial evolution
The future is hedged
Your future as a hedge fund manager