Taming the Lion

Taming the Lion
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Описание книги

Richard Farleigh reveals the 100 secret strategies that he developed to enable him to succeed in the markets.
During his time running a trading desk, Farleigh set out to develop a repeatable methodology based on observation and reasoning, not just on one-off flukes and luck, to enable him to outperform the market on a regular basis.
The (potentially controversial) beliefs that he incorporates into his strategies include:
– Markets tend to under-react, not overreact. – Big, obvious ideas offer great opportunities. – It is safe to invest with a consensus view. – Contrarian trading is usually irrational. – It is best to enter and exit the share market at the right times instead of always staying invested. – Price trends are well known but under-utilised. – Chartists are just astrologers. – Investment and trading are increasingly similar.
Some of the techniques simply involve being better than other investors at some of the basics, including only chasing genuine opportunities, managing risks and coping with losses.
As his trading results started to attract some attention, Farleigh was frequently asked to give presentations of his ideas to other professional traders. From the feedback during these sessions he realised that others were interested in an approach to investing which was based on first principles. Finding that anecdotes were the best way to make a point, and that ideas could be summarised into numbered strategies, allowed him to show clearly how the methodology worked.
Years later, he is still using the same approach, and has found that amateurs, as well as professionals, are keen to find out how markets work and how to improve their investment performance. This book contains those secrets.

About the 100 Strategies
The rules are based on two broad experiences. Firstly, my involvement with investing and trading has been an endless pursuit of looking for patterns and developing my own repeatable methodologies. I have wanted to turn an art into a science. Secondly, from so many conversations with intelligent and educated people, who are curious about markets, but have been unhappy with a lack of useful reading material.
The book is intended for anyone with an interest in trading or investing, whether they are amateurs or professionals. The laws grew out of a series of popular lectures that I gave in my early career and out of the process of training new people to trade the markets.
Perhaps a unique thing about my approach in this book is that I have developed a framework which is applicable to all markets, whether they are bonds, money market, commodities, currencies, stocks, or property. The more I have learnt about these markets the more I have been convinced that it is sensible to approach them the same way. This is very useful, especially when some markets are underperforming.
This is a serious book. It is definitely not a «how to get rich quick» trick. I have presented my observations and interpretations as laws for practical purposes. It incorporates equally a lot of groundwork analysis of markets.
In finance there has been a gap between practitioners and the theoreticians. I intend to bridge that gap with a solid and, at times, theoretical explanation for my observations. Nevertheless, I have presented the material in a personal way. It is light hearted, with lots of anecdotes. I have not done endless amounts of research on each of the laws, so at times I may have erred on the detail. However it is always the concepts that are important, as these are what I am trying to get across.

Оглавление

Richard Farleigh. Taming the Lion

Publishing details

1 – Markets

2 – Comparative Advantages

3 – Risk

4 – Patterns and Anomalies

5 – Big Ideas

6 – Small Companies

7 – Price Behaviour

8 – The Understanding and Use of Trends in Prices

9 – Market Timing

10 – Avoiding Temptation

Introduction

Structure of the book

Chapter 1 – Markets

Chapter 2 – Comparative Advantages

Chapter 3 – Risk

Chapter 4 – Patterns and Anomalies

Chapter 5 – Big Ideas

Chapter 6 – Small Companies

Chapter 7 – Price Behaviour

Chapter 8 – The Understanding and Use of Trends in Prices

Chapter 9 – Market Timing

Chapter 10 – Avoiding Temptation

A brief biography by Janine Perrett

A day in the life

It can be profitable and exhilarating — but let’s start at the beginning

1. Markets. 1.0 The different markets have many useful similarities

Trading and investment are increasingly similar

Fundamentals

1.1 Fear the market

My mistakes

“A hard way to make an easy living”

1.2 Markets are more efficient than generally acknowledged

No opportunities in an efficient market

Fortunately, markets are not always efficient

1.3 Market opportunities are disappearing

The search for market inconsistencies

Not so easy now

1.4 The markets can overwhelm government intervention

1.5 The market is strengthened by speculation

George Soros and Black Wednesday

1.6 Respect the market not the experts

‘Experts’?

1.7 Most professionals are not outguessing the market

1.8 Listen and read very critically

1.9 Understand recent history

An inexpensive education

2. Comparative Advantages. 2.0 To outperform the market you need a comparative advantage

Trading fundamentals

Everyone needs an edge

2.1 Everybody is a hero in a bull market!

Don’t mistake luck for brains

2.2 Never stray from your comparative advantages

Bermuda’s comparative advantage

Call me Mr Sapphire

2.3 A small percentage advantage is enough to outperform the market

2.4 Test the advantage over time and make changes slowly

2.5 Financial markets advantage #1: Information

Face to face meetings are important

Insider information

2.6 Financial markets advantage #2: Original analysis

2.7 Financial markets advantage #3: Brokers and bankers have extra information and free insurance

Information from the order book

Free insurance

2.8 Financial markets advantage #4: Understanding market behaviour

The market opportunity research industry

2.9 The Strategies are based on six types of market behaviour

3. Risk. 3.0 Manage and embrace risk. Learning to deal with risk and losses

Backgammon rather than chess

3.1 Good ideas can lose money

Be philosophical

Addavita – algae production

MathEngine – computer graphics

Analysis after a loss

3.2 Asymmetry has fooled a lot of investors

Is the higher return worth the risk?

Professionals can get it wrong as well

3.3 Wild swings and losses are uncomfortable, but they may offer the best rewards

Opportunities may be found in areas that others find uncomfortable

3.4 Diversify

3.5 Assess risk - and then double it

Risk assessment is not always an exact science

How I assess my total risk

3.6 Risk adjust results after the trade

Home House experience

3.7 Qualities of the successful trader

Chess hustling proved good training

But chess players don’t normally make good traders

3.8 Trading pressure increases with amount at risk

A great flotation but then it all goes wrong

I should have followed the Strategies

The emotional side of investing must be recognised and controlled

Stress affected my investing

3.9 The trader’s dilemma - the stop-loss?

The decision not to cut

Unwired Group Limited

Summary on stop-losses

4. Patterns and Anomalies. 4.0 Look for patterns and anomalies

An inquisitive nature

Watch crowd behaviour

Think for yourself

4.1 Choose the right markets

4.2 The share market dilemma

4.3 Crisis situations almost always provide an opportunity

Panics can lead to an imbalance in supply and demand

The tech stock collapse offered opportunity

4.4 Short term interest rates will tend toward the inflation rate plus the economic growth rate

The basis for the strategy

4.5 Government bond markets for the major economies are not prone to crashes

Divergent behaviour of stocks and bonds after economic shocks

4.6 Currencies: two economies and fact or fashion?

Purchasing price parity is not much use

Market sentiment has the most impact

4.7 Some markets are driven by supply

4.8 Property prices often lag stock prices

There are always exceptions to rules

Property may be the easiest market

4.9 Chartists are the astrologers of the markets

Chartists have no scientific basis

5. Big Ideas. 5.0 Markets are slow to react to structural influences

Structural influences

5.1 Look for the next Big Thing

And the next Big Thing is…?

A bizarre global economy

Emerging products

5.2 Ignore obscure theories and observations

5.3 Only invest in the broad markets when they are in line with the prevailing economic environment

Long term opportunities when you invest with the prevailing environment

Be aware of the general economic situation

5.4 Be methodical – use a checklist to quantify and add rigour to a view

Benefits of a checklist

Monitoring economic growth and inflation

A check on getting carried away

5.5 Buy stocks when economic growth is strong and inflation is weak

Timing is important

Start with the economy

End of the cold war and the 1990s boom

Old theories may have had their day

5.6 Buy bonds when inflation and economic growth are both weak

Inflation has the bigger influence on bond yields

The big trends in the 20th century

One of the greatest trends – the fall in bond yields from the late 1980s

5.7 Buy commodities when inflation and economic growth are both strong

Trade in a basket of commodities

CRB Index

Long periods of high growth and high inflation are rare

The recent story has been all about China

Watch out for US dollar exposure

5.8 Few assets benefit when inflation is strong and economic growth is weak

1970s – a miserable decade

No easy answer to stagflation

5.9 You are unlikely to out-analyse the analysts

Top-down over bottom-up

6. Small Companies. 6.0 Small companies offer more opportunities than large companies

What is a small company?

Small companies offer the best risk-reward ratio

Small companies have a high failure rate

Small listed companies can be similar to unlisted companies

How to start

Investing in unlisted companies

More risky

The small company checklist

Checklist for small companies

6.1 The quality of a company’s management is by far the most crucial factor in determining its success

It is easier to assess the management of smaller companies than larger ones

Face to face meetings are important

The track record of the managers is also very useful

6.2 Determining the fair valuation is more difficult with small companies

Large share of a small market is preferable to small share of a large market

Kangaroo valuation

6.3 Clearly identify the comparative advantages

I want women

Not a popular idea at first

An expensive and difficult project

The importance of a comparative advantage

Delays: Viability or timing?

6.4 Be sure the business is sustainable

Wild pigs and volleyball

Immune to the economic cycle and investment fashions

6.5 Good products don’t always sell

My dotcom flirtation

Good quality at cost price

First, test the concept

6.6 Growth puts strains on small companies

Food scanning

Fishing for whales

Problems of dealing with large companies

Resources are often stretched

The challenge of international markets

6.7 Be sure of a route to exit and adequate cash resources

A world of heartache and loss

The company life cycle

Arguments between investors and company founders

Further rounds of funding

The process of finding private funding can be dangerous

The exit route must always be kept in mind

Try to be attractive

Flotation

Be wary of projections in business plans

6.8 Shareholders can help unlisted companies

Analyse your fellow shareholders

6.9 Be pragmatic with due diligence

How do you spell chip?

Trust the managers

Radiation Watch

7. Price Behaviour. 7.0 Prices go further than expected

My longest trade

Stay with the winners – don’t get shaken out

7.1 Forget the old price

“Ridiculous oil”

Which price is wrong?

7.2 People often misjudge probability and logic

Errors involving simple logic

High profile events are overestimated

Unusual events do happen

Traps for investors

Hindsight and over-confidence

7.3 A price is an average of possibilities

Calculating price probabilities

But you can’t be too precise

The current price is bound to move one way or another

7.4 The probability can be asymmetric

Some markets perennially go up slowly and down quickly

7.5 Be nervous when a market doesn’t rally on good news

If buyers don’t want to buy when there is good news, when will they?

7.6 Don’t day trade!

Only day trade if you are at the coalface

7.7 Avoid trading in options if you do not understand their pricing

A simple approach to option pricing

7.8 Back your hunches with a small investment at least

Get involved

Paper trading is not a substitute

7.9 Features of good trading models

Different types of trading models

The need for an underlying theory

Be wary of data mining

Keep it simple

8. The Understanding and Use of Trends in Prices. 8.0 There is statistical proof that market prices trend

Blind Freddy loves charts

Economics theory suggests trends don’t exist

Trend Trader

The implications of trending markets

8.1 Trends operate across commodities, currencies, interest rates, stocks and property

Analysis of trending across many different markets

Analysis of trending across many different markets continued

8.2 Trends have been in operation for a long time

A comparative advantage that can be tested

Trend following is becoming more popular

8.3 It is not true that markets usually overreact

8.4 Trends are resistant despite being well-known

The phenomena of trends will survive

8.5 Trends represent the gradual dispersal of information

What does the news really mean?

What if there’s no monthly announcement?

8.6 Price reaction is delayed by inertia and scepticism

Herd instinct slows re-evaluation of forecasts

8.7 A rising price attracts buyers

It’s all about the future

Psychology

8.8 Economic cycles breed market cycles

8.9 News against the trend is often ignored

Look at history to understand how markets have behaved to specific events in the past

Market response to news is dependent on the prevailing trend

9. Market Timing. 9.0 Combine fundamentals with price action

Trading rules

Two successful trading styles combined into one

9.1 Ignore the noise in price movements

Decide what is the trend direction

9.2 Don’t be a hero - do not buy falling markets

Never forget: markets move further than expected and they move in trends

Fighting the trend is for mugs

9.3 Trade with the trend - wait for the trend before you enter the market

One of the most important Strategies

9.4 Add to winning trades, not losing trades

Ruining markets

Don’t add to losing trades

Cutting losing positions

9.5 It is safe to be with the consensus

1990s fall of the Japanese stock market

Strong oil prices

9.6 Do not use price targets or time limits

The winners have to outbalance the losers

Time limits on investments should be unnecessary

The time to get out is when the trend reverses

9.7 If the fundamentals have changed, adjust the position accordingly

How to value growth oriented tech companies?

The fundamentals had changed

9.8 You will not get the high or the low

A slot machine trade

Always leave some money on the table

9.9 A powerful model shows probability is on your side

Trend Trader has worked in theory and practice

Our trading style mimics Trend Trader

But we can do even better…

10. Avoiding Temptation. 10.0 Know when to stay out of the market

Sometimes the best trade is no trade at all

US dollar fundamentals are currently confusing

Be careful at the end of long trends

Wait for a great trade to come along

10.1 Identify what is difficult about the existing environment; It may change

The market took a long time to assimilate what happened in Iraq

10.2 Monitoring trends may alert you to opportunities you wouldn’t normally find

Alerted to new markets

Monitoring individual sectors can be done manually

Summary

10.3 With success, bank some profits

Learn from former billionaires

Always mark-to-market your positions

10.4 Negotiation is an art

10.5 The evolution of the con artist

Many different cons

Alarm bells

10.6 Wealth preservation is not simple

The 3% Rule

The era of low risk, high returns is over for the moment

10.7 Be sceptical of sophisticated retail products

Many financial retail products depend on sleight of hand

The more complicated the product, the more chance to disguise fees

Many banks don’t even understand these products

Summary

10.8 Management and brokerage fees should be minimal in a passive portfolio

The bank wants fees

Ask for market prices

10.9 Follow these strategies and be part of the hedge fund (r)evolution

Hedge funds are currently the financial fashion

Hedge funds are a part of natural financial evolution

The future is hedged

Your future as a hedge fund manager

Отрывок из книги

1.0 The different markets have many useful similarities

1.1 Fear the market

.....

It was in the middle of one such episode a few years ago, when I had the idea to investigate the longer term effect of government intervention. The government was intervening aggressively in the Australian dollar market and there was a flurry of activity around me in the dealing room. Looking at the prices flashing on the screen, I wondered if the market reaction was very long lasting. Sure enough, my subsequent research showed that while falling currencies typically bounce after government action, in less than a month or so, they resume on their downward path and continue to weaken towards fresh lows.

So by spotting this pattern I had found a new, profitable strategy. Whenever the market had this kind of knee-jerk reaction to government intervention, I would bet against it, on the assumption that the bounce was only temporary. I was effectively backing market fundamentals versus the government.

.....

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