Out of Work

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Richard K Vedder. Out of Work

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Out of Work

Contents

Foreword

NOTES

Preface to the Updated Edition

Preface to the First Edition

1. The Unemployment Century

Variations in Unemployment over Time

Spatial Variations in Unemployment

Demographic Variations in Unemployment

RACIAL DIFFERENCES

GENDER DIFFERENCES

TEENAGE UNEMPLOYMENT

The Importance of Unemployment

NOTES

2. Unemployment in Theory

Wage-Based Perspectives on Unemployment

AUSTRIAN PERSPECTIVES ON UNEMPLOYMENT

A Digression on Unemployment Statistics

Underconsumptionist and Income-Expenditure Approaches

Late Twentieth-Century Perspectives on Unemployment

MONETARISM

EXPECTATIONS AND THE NEW CLASSICAL ECONOMICS

NOTES

3. The Neoclassical/Austrian Approach: An Overview

Testing the Basic Model

The Changing Flexibility of Wages, Prices, and Productivity

Criticisms of the Model

DATA PROBLEMS

EXPANDED LAG STRUCTURE

ISSUES OF CAUSALITY

NOTES

4. The Gilded Age

The Unemployment Experience, 1900–1929

Interpreting the Unemployment Experience, 1900–1919

The 1920–1922 Depression. THE EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE

EVIDENCE FROM THE IRON AND STEEL INDUSTRY

CONTEMPORARY ANALYSIS OF THE 1921 DEPRESSION

The New Era, 1922–1929

THE EMPIRICAL RECORD AND THE WAGES HYPOTHESIS

THE GENESIS OF THE IMPENDING CRISIS

NOTES

5. From New Era to New Deal

Economic Decline: 1929–1933

Monthly Estimates of Unemployment Rates

Unemployment and the Adjusted Real Wage, 1929–1933

Alternative Statistical Estimation with Quarterly Data

Unemployment and the “New Economics” of Herbert Hoover

IMPLEMENTING THE HIGH-WAGE POLICY

Evaluating the Success of the High-Wage Policy Empirically

The Unemployment Effects of Smoot-Hawley

The Economics Profession and the High-Wage Policy. CONTEMPORARY REACTIONS

THE IDEAS OF LATER ECONOMISTS

Unemployment and Wages: The European Experience

NOTES

6. The Banking Crisis and the Labor Market

Financial Dimensions of the High-Wage Policy

The Impact on Banks

An Econometric Test of the Wage-Banking Relationship

The High-Wage Policy and Financial Markets

The Depression Scenario: A Summary

NOTES

7. The New Deal

The Unemployment Experience, 1933–1941

Trends in Wages, Prices, and Productivity

Factory Employment Trends

A Tale of Two Industries: Steel and Autos

The Impact of the New Deal on Unemployment

Other Perspectives on New Deal Unemployment

THE 1937–1938 DOWNTURN

NOTES

8. The Impossible Dream Come True

Wartime-Era Unemployment and the Adjusted Real Wage

Statistical Problems in the Command Economy of the Wartime Era

THE EVOLUTION OF WAGE AND PRICE CONTROLS

THE DISTORTIONAL EFFECT OF PRICE CONTROLS

The Postwar Recovery

STATISTICAL PROBLEMS

WHY THE ERROR IN THE GOVERNMENT’S REVISED STATISTICS?

ECONOMIC INTERPRETATIONS OF THE POSTWAR RECONVERSION

THE REVISED KEYNESIAN INTERPRETATION OF RECONVERSION

ASSESSING THE KEYNESIAN INTERPRETATION

The Postwar Reconversion and the Adjusted Real Wage Model

NOTES

9. The Gentle Time

The National Income Account Data

Attitudes Toward Economic Policy

THE INTELLECTUAL VIEW

The Real World: What Happened?

The First Test: The 1949 Recession

The 1953–1954 Recession

The 1958 Recession

What About Monetary Policy?

NOTES

10. The Camelot Years

NOTES

11 “Pride Goeth Before a Fall”

The 1970s in Detail

How Well Did Demand Management Work?

The State of Economic Thinking at the End of the Decade

NOTES

12. The Winds of Change

The Experience of the Eighties

THE GREAT DISINFLATION

THE RECESSION OF 1982

THE SKY IS FALLING!

DOES KEYNES LIVE?

STABILITY IN THE EIGHTIES

NOTES

13. The Natural Rate of Unemployment

An Overview of the Natural Rate of Unemployment

TRENDS IN CYCLICAL UNEMPLOYMENT BRIEFLY REVISITED

TRENDS IN THE NATURAL RATE OF UNEMPLOYMENT

Frictional Unemployment in Recent Decades

The Increase in Structural Unemployment

AGE COMPOSITION OF THE LABOR FORCE

GROWTH IN LABOR SUPPLY

CHANGING COMPOSITION OF JOBS

Governmental Policies and Structural Unemployment

FIVE WAGE-ENHANCING POLICIES OF GOVERNMENT

GOVERNMENTAL POLICIES RAISING THE RESERVATION WAGE

OTHER PUBLIC POLICIES

Spatial Dimensions of American Unemployment

NOTES

14. Who Bears the Burden of Unemployment?

White-Nonwhite Unemployment Differentials over One Hundred Years

THE 1890 AND 1900 CENSUSES

THE 1930 CENSUS

THE UNEMPLOYMENT-RATE DIFFERENTIAL SINCE 1940

Searching for an Explanation for Widening Differentials

I. RACIAL DISCRIMINATION

2. CHANGING JOB AND LOCATIONAL CHOICES OF NONWHITES

J. DIFFERENTIAL RACIAL IMPACT OF GOVERNMENTAL POLICIES

Further Evidence: Changing Employment-Population Ratios

Gender Differences in Unemployment

Teenage Unemployment Differentials

NOTES

15. Unemployment and the State

The State and the Business Cycle

In the Long Run Many of Us Are Alive

The Contemporary Scene

NOTES

16. Afterword

Unemployment and Public Policy

The Best of Times, the Worst of Times

THE ECONOMY DURING THE PRE-SUPPLY-SIDE ERA

THE ECONOMY DURING THE SUPPLY-SIDE ERA

POST-SUPPLY-SIDE ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE

LONGER-RUN CONSEQUENCES

THE GREAT SLOWDOWN

The New Stagnation

The New Stagnationism in Perspective

NOTES

Appendix A. The Extended Theoretical Model

NOTES

Appendix B. The Technical Aspects of the Statistical Analysis

The Issue of Replicability

The Causality Question

Model Specification Issues

Some Additional Tests

Summary of Equation Evaluation Tests

A Comparison of Predicted and Actual Levels of Unemployment

The World since 1989

Rational Expectations and Slutsky Cycles

RATEX versus Slutsky Outcomes

PARTIAL DECAY PARAMETERS

DECAY PARAMETERS AS AN ADJUSTMENT MECHANISM

CONCLUSIONS

Adjusted Real Wages and Economic Growth

Spatial Variations in Unemployment Revisited

RACE AND UNEMPLOYMENT

THE PERSISTENCE OF UNEMPLOYMENT

CONCLUSIONS

Concluding Remarks

NOTES

Bibliography. Books

Articles

Government Documents

Index

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

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2. On the behavior of economists of the late neoclassical era, see William J. Barber, From New Era to New Deal (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1985).

3. This is so in part because of the famous law of diminishing returns. Also, where there is imperfect competition in product markets, firms must lower prices to sell increased output, lowering the dollar revenue received per unit of increased production. Profit maximizing firms will hire workers up to the point where the marginal cost of the labor is equal to the marginal revenue product of the labor.

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