The Economic Indicator Handbook
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Ричард Ямароне. The Economic Indicator Handbook
Acknowledgments
About the Author
Chapter 1. The Daily Blotter
The Economic Calendar
Economist Estimates and Expectations
The Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index
The Events Calendar
The Economic Statistics Table (ECST)
The Powerful Economic Workbench
The Bloomberg Orange Book of CEO Comments
The Treasury and Money Market Rates
The Bloomberg Financial Conditions Monitor
Test Yourself
Answers
Chapter 2. The Business Cycle
Leading, Lagging, and Coincident Indicators
The Chicago National Activity Index
The Yield Curve as a Predictor of the Business Cycle
“Nowcasting” Economic Activity
The Best Representation of U.S. Economic Activity
Test Yourself
Answers
Chapter 3. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Composition
Nominal and Real Values
Consumption Expenditures
Investment Spending
Inventories
Government Spending
Net Exports
Deflators
Final Sales
Corporate Profits
Gross Domestic Income
Test Yourself
Answers
Chapter 4. The Labor Market and Employment
Employment and the Business Cycle
Two Measures of Employment: Payrolls and Households
Unemployment
The Labor Force
Hiring of Temporary Workers
Employment Trends of Various Age Cohorts
The Duration of Unemployment
Part-Time and Full-Time Employment
Price of Labor and Earnings
Hours Worked
Leaving the Labor Force
Employment Diffusion Indexes
Related Measures
Test Yourself
Answers
Chapter 5. Retail Sales
Composition
Different Perspectives
Anecdotal Evidence
Luxury Sales
Shortcomings
Corrections
Recent Trends and Influences
The Retail Calendar
Holiday Retail Sales
The Crucial Indicator
Related Measures
Recent Trends
Test Yourself
Answers
Chapter 6. National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) Small Business Economic Trends
Composition
The Business Cycle and the Headline NFIB Index
The Crucial Indicator: Hiring Intentions
Small Business Investment Spending
The Outlook Index and the Economic Performance
The Credit Market and the Small Business Sector
Small Businesses and Inflation
Shortcomings
Related Measures
Test Yourself
Answers
Chapter 7. Personal Income and Outlays
Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
The Fab Five Indicators of Discretionary Spending
Government Transfer Payments
The “Savings” Rate
Consumer Spending Inflation Measures
Test Yourself
Answers
Chapter 8. Housing and Construction
Overall Construction Spending
Housing Market Index
Housing Affordability Index
Housing Construction Activity
Single-Family Homes and Apartment Construction
Applications for Mortgages
Architect's “Work on the Books”
Home Sales
Home Supply
Home Prices
Test Yourself
Answers
Chapter 9. Manufacturing
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Utility Production
Institute for Supply Management Indexes
Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders
Test Yourself
Answers
Chapter 10. Prices and Inflation
The Consumer Price Index
The Producer Price Index
Commodity and Raw Material Prices
Import Prices
Labor Market Price Activity
Inflation Expectations
Test Yourself
Answers
Chapter 11. Confidence and Sentiment
Tweaking the Confidence Measures
Confidence by Income Status
The Misery Index
Confidence and Big-Ticket Items
Test Yourself
Answers
Chapter 12. The Federal Reserve
Consumer Credit
The Senior Loan Officer Survey
The Flow of Funds Report
The Philadelphia Fed Economic Measures
The Chicago Fed's Midwest Economy Index
The Cleveland Fed's Inflation Expectations Index
The San Francisco Fed's Tech Pulse Index
The New York Fed's Empire State Survey
The Richmond Fed Surveys
The Dallas Fed Surveys
The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey
Test Yourself
Answers
Sources and Additional Reading
Отрывок из книги
THE ECONOMIC INDICATOR HANDBOOK
How to Evaluate Economic Trends to Maximize Profits and Minimize Losses
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Source: Bloomberg
In Exhibit 1.7, we chart the U.S. Treasury cash balance of federal tax deposits withheld from employment income and tax receipts against the monthly nonfarm payrolls. The economic explanation behind this is that the more people employed, the greater will be the amount of tax withholdings by the federal government.
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