Оглавление
Рохит Бхаргава. Non-Obvious 2018 Edition
Also by the Author:
ABOUT THE NON-OBVIOUS TREND SERIES
PRAISE FOR NON-OBVIOUS
AUTHOR’S NOTE: The 2018 Edition – What’s New. and Non-Obvious?
INTRODUCTION
Why Does Trend Curation Matter?
Why I Wrote Non-Obvious
The NORWEGIAN BILLIONAIRE: Why Most Trend Predictions. Are Spectacularly Useless
“To Collect Is Human”
An Accidental Trend Curator
The Underappreciated Side of Data
The 5 Myths of Trend Spotting
Myth #1 - Trends Are Spotted
Myth # 2 - Trends Are Predicted by Industry Experts
Myth # 3 - Trends Are Based on “Hard” Data
Myth # 4 - Trends only last for a short time
Myth # 5 - Trends Are Hopelessly Broad Predictions
Why Most Trend Predictions Are Useless
Reason # 1 - No Objectivity
Reason #2 - No INSIGHT
Reason # 3 - No Proof
RReason #4 - No Application
How to Think Different About Trends
The Curator’s Mindset: Learning the 5 Essential Habits. of Trend Curators
The World’s Most Unknown Art Collector
The Rise of “Curationism”
The 5 Habits of Trend Curators
The 5 Habits of Trend Curators
How to Be Curious
3 Ways to Be More Curious Today
Be Curious: What to Read
How to Be Observant
3 Ways to Be More Observant
Be Observant: What to Read
How to Be Fickle
3 Ways to Be More Fickle
Be Fickle: What to Read
How to Be Thoughtful
3 Ways to Be More Thoughtful
Be Thoughtful: What to Read
How to Be Elegant
3 Ways to Think More Elegantly
Be Elegant: What to Read
Why These 5 Habits?
The Haystack Method: How to Curate Trends for. Fun and Profit
Inside the Haystack Method
Why I Started Curating Ideas
Step 1—Gathering
Idea Sources: Where to Gather Ideas
Tips & Tricks: How to Gather Ideas
Step 2—Aggregating
Aggregating Questions: How to Group Ideas
Tips & Tricks: How to Aggregate Ideas
Step 3—Elevating
Elevating Questions: How to Think Bigger About Ideas
Tips & Tricks: How to Elevate Your Ideas
Step 4—Naming
Naming Questions: How to Ensure You Have. an Effective Trend Name
Tips & Tricks: How to Name Your Ideas Powerfully
Step 5—Proving
3 ELEMENTS OF TRENDS
Proving Questions: How to Quantify a Trend
Tips & Tricks: How to Prove Your Trend Ideas
Case Study: How to Curate a Non-Obvious Trend. Engineered Addiction. STEP 1—Gathering
STEP 2—Aggregating
STEP 3—Elevating
STEP 4—Naming
STEP 5—Proving
Avoiding Future Babble
The Art of Getting Trends Right (and Wrong)
TRUTHING
What’s the Trend?
Reengineered Media Diets and the Rise of Curators
Activism 2.0: User-Generated Truth (UGT)
Tech-Enabled Truth Warriors
Why We Trust Older Products
Truth Seeking Through Nostalgia
Why It Matters
How to Use This Trend
UNGENDERED
What’s the Trend?
Why Testosterone is Overrated
Gender Optional
The Third Gender … and More!
Pink Legos and Genderfluid Fashion
Nasty Boys In Nigeria
Rise of Anonymity
Why It Matters
How to Use This Trend
ENLIGHTENED CONSUMPTION
What’s the Trend?
Tools For “Applightenment”
B2B Sustainability
Transformative Travel & The World’s Quietest Place
Ugly Fruits and Selling Your Leftovers
Enlightened Investing
Enlightened Employment
What It Means
How to Use This Trend
OVERTARGETING
What’s the Trend?
The New Snake Oil Salesman
B2Beyond Marketing
The Myth of Modern Marketing
How the Marketing Industry Lost $140 Million
Don’t Kill Demographics, Understand Them
Green Grandmas and Girls Riding Harleys
Why It Matters
How to Use This Trend
BRAND STAND
What’s the Trend?
Surviving a Brandless Future
#Resist and the Trump Administration
Fearless Girl and Utah’s Lost Conference
Lego’s Stand
Tata Tea and Indian “Preactivism”
5 Elements Of An Effective Brand Stand
Why It Matters
How to Use This Trend
BACKSTORYTELLING
What’s the Trend?
Scandinavian Tweed and Turkish Cymbals
How Startups Can Win with Backstorytelling
Beautiful Stories and the Future of Cosmetics
How to Avoid Hot Tub Awkwardness In Iceland
Making the Backstory Tangible
Backstories Through Filmmakers
India’s Favorite Beer
Why It Matters
How to Use This Trend
MANIPULATED OUTRAGE
What’s the Trend?
The Outrageous President
The Manipulator’s Playbook
The Business Model of Outrage
Outrage As Identity
The Burden of Outrage
Why It Matters
How to Use This Trend
LIGHT-SPEED LEARNING
What’s the Trend?
Instant Learning
How To Graduate More Doctors
Can Bite-Sized Learning Save Higher Ed?
The Human Guinea Pig & Speed Reading
Augmented Educational Toys
Why It Matters
How to Use This Trend
VIRTUAL EMPATHY
What’s the Trend?
Augmented Empathy
Hyper Reality, Dinosaurs, and the Void
The Reality Show Where Nothing Happens
What Would You Do?
Celebrating the Outdoors from the Indoors
Mental Illness Exposed on YouTube
Empathy at Work
Why It Matters
How to Use This Trend
HUMAN MODE
What’s the Trend?
Robo-Advisors Get a Human Colleague
Slow Checkouts and Smart Mirrors
Necessary Automation
Linguists Train Bots
The Rise of Pink-Collar Work
The Human Side of Automated Chatbots
Fidget Spinners and the Death of Fads
Shareable Humanity
Why It Matters
How to Use This Trend
DATA POLLUTION
What’s the Trend?
The Hidden Side of Data Collection
The 4 Sources For Data
The 5 Types of Data Pollution
Why Data Overflows
The Overquantified Self
A Universe of Manipulated Data
Why Everyone Has a Fake Email Address
Fake Profiles And Data Hacking Bots
Data Contamination
Why It Matters
How to Use This Trend
PREDICTIVE PROTECTION
What’s the Trend?
Geostorms, Car Hackers and the. Scary Future Of Predictive Protection
Hackers Saving Democracy
Wearables, Trainables and Insideables
Robotherapy and Automated Suicide Prevention
The Urban Canary and Protective Products
Drone Squads and Airborne Protectors
Exposing The Financial “Rogues”
Why It Matters:
How to Use This Trend
APPROACHABLE LUXURY
What’s the Trend?
Why No One Is Buying Swiss Watches
Detroit’s Shining New Hope
The End of Haughty Travel
Train Like a Celebrity
Everyday Gourmet
Eco-Diamonds and the New Jewelry Customer
Why It Matters
5 Non-Obvious Elements of Approachable Luxury
How to Use This Trend
TOUCHWORTHY
What’s the Trend?
The Japanese Purikura Experience
The Slime Economy & ASMR
The Strangely Soothing World of ASMR
Sensory Friendly Products and Services
Professional Cuddlers and Touch Therapy
Therapy Pets
Growth In Haptics
Why It Matters
How to Use This Trend
DISRUPTIVE DISTRIBUTION
What’s the Trend?
A Better Way To Buy A Mattress
Future Of Food Delivery
Disruptive Subscriptions
Business Blur: Creative Consultancies
Business Blur: Retail Experiences
Industry Shifting
Why It Matters
How to Use This Trend
INTERSECTION THINKING. How To Apply Trends To Your Business
How to Create a Game-Changing Product
An Introduction to Intersection Thinking
4 Mindsets of Intersection Thinking
Mindset #1: See the Similarities. Instead of the Differences
Mindset #2: Purposely Look Away from Your Goal
Mindset #3: Wander into the Unfamiliar
Mindset #4: Be Persuadable
Why Workshops Are So Powerful
5 Keys to Running a Great Trend Workshop
4 Models of Trend Workshops
Note for Small Teams and Solopreneurs
5 BOOKS ON TRENDS. WORTH READING (AND 15 WEBSITES TO BOOKMARK)
1. Megatrends, by John Naisbitt (1982)
2. The Trend Forecaster’s Handbook, by Martin Raymond (2010)
3. Trend-Driven Innovation, by Henry Mason, David Mattin, Maxwell Luthy, and Delia Dumitrescu (2015)
4. Superforecasting, by Philip E. Tetlock & Dan Gardner (2015)
5. The Trend Management Toolkit, by Anne Lise Kjaer (2014)
What Else To Read..
15 Websites to Bookmark
Anti-trends. The Flip Side of Trends
Flip Thinking and Anti-Trends
Breaking Trends
OVERVIEW: How to Read These Past Trend Reports
The 2011 Non-Obvious Trend Report Overview
THE BACKSTORY
RETROSPECTIVE: HOW ACCURATE WAS THIS REPORT?
The 2012 Non-Obvious Trend Report Overview
THE BACKSTORY
RETROSPECTIVE: HOW ACCURATE WAS THIS REPORT?
The 2013 Non-Obvious Trend Report Overview
THE BACKSTORY
RETROSPECTIVE: HOW ACCURATE WAS THIS REPORT?
2013 Culture & Consumer Behavior Trends
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating B+
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating A
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating C+
2013 Marketing & Social Media Trends
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating C
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating A
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating A
2013 Media & Entertainment Trends
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating B
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating A
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating B+
2013 Technology & Design Trends
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating A-
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating A
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating A
2013 Economics & Entrepreneurship Trends
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating A
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating A
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating A
The 2014 Non-Obvious Trend Report Overview
THE BACKSTORY
RETROSPECTIVE: HOW ACCURATE WAS THIS REPORT?
2014 Culture & Consumer Behavior Trends
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating A
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating A
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating A
2014 Marketing & Social Media Trends
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating A
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating A
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating B
2014 Media & Entertainment Trends
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating B
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating A
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating A
2014 Technology & Design Trends
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating C
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating B
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating A-
2014 Economics & Entrepreneurship Trends
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating B-
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating A
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating A
The 2015 Non-Obvious Trend Report Overview
THE BACKSTORY
RETROSPECTIVE: HOW ACCURATE WAS THIS REPORT?
2015 Culture & Consumer Behavior Trends
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating A
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating B+
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating A
2015 Marketing & Social Media Trends
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating A
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating A-
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating B+
2015 Media & Entertainment Trends
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating A
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating B
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating B
2015 Technology & Design Trends
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating A
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating A
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating A
2015 Economics & Entrepreneurship Trends
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating A
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating A
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating B
The 2016 Non-Obvious Trend Report Overview
THE BACKSTORY
RETROSPECTIVE: HOW ACCURATE WAS THIS REPORT?
2016 Culture & Consumer Behavior Trends
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating A
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating A
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating B+
2016 Marketing & Social Media Trends
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating A
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating A
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating A
2016 Media & Entertainment Trends
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating A
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating B
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating A
2016 Technology & Design Trends
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating A
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating B
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating A
2016 Economics & Entrepreneurship Trends
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating A
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating A
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating A
The 2017 Non-Obvious Trend Report Overview
THE BACKSTORY
RETROSPECTIVE: HOW ACCURATE WAS THIS REPORT?
2017 Culture & Consumer Behavior Trends
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating: A
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating:A
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating:A
2017 Marketing & Social Media Trends
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating:
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating: A
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating:A
2017 Media & Entertainment Trends
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating:A
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating:A
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating:A
2017 Technology & Design Trends
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating: A
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating:A-
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating:A-
2017 Economics & Entrepreneurship Trends
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating:A-
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating:A
What’s the Trend?
Trend Longevity Rating:A
AFTERWORD
RESEARCH: Notes, References, & Credits
ENDNOTES. Chapter 1: The Norwegian Billionaire
Chapter 2: The Curator’s Mindset
Chapter 3: The Haystack Method
Chapter 4: Truthing
Chapter 5: Ungendered
Chapter 6: Enlightened Consumption
Chapter 7: Overtargeting
Chapter 8: Brand Stand
Chapter 9: Backstorytelling
Chapter 10: Manipulated Outrage
Chapter 11: Light-Speed Learning
Chapter 12: Virtual Empathy
Chapter 13: Human Mode
Chapter 14: Data Pollution
Chapter 15: Predictive Protection
Chapter 16: Approachable Luxury
Chapter 17: Touchworthy
Chapter 18: Disruptive Distribution
Chapter 19: Intersection Thinking
Chapter 21: Anti-Trends
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
