The economic landscape of the world is changing dramatically. The power structure that favoured developed countries is falling away under the effects of the global financial crisis of 2008, the slowdown in the US economy and the debt crisis in Europe. At the same time developing countries are gaining economic ground. South Africa is among the developing countries taking a more prominent role on the global stage. With China, Brazil, Russia and India it is part of the BRICS alliance, created to give the leading developing countries a stronger position when it comes to taking global action. But BRICS has its downsides, and South Africa faces many potential pitfalls as well as potential benefits. Will the richer countries in the alliance use their power to control BRICS initiatives? Can the member countries work together effectively when they are also in competition? What can South Africa gain from it? Renowned commentator and analyst William Gumede gives an incisive and thorough breakdown of what BRICS could mean for South Africa and Africa in general.
Оглавление
William Gumede. Tafelberg Short: South Africa in BRICS
South Africa in BRICS. Salvation or ruination?
A Dramatic Shift in Global Power
Very Different Opinions
What Does BRICS Offer Its Members?
Does South Africa Belong in BRICS?
Individual Country Differences: A Major Challenge
The Policy Agenda and Priorities
Why BRICS is Not Necessarily Good for South Africa
Africa: The Need to be Shrewd and Strategic
Negotiating the Way Forward
About the Book
About the Author
About Tafelberg Short Books
Отрывок из книги
William Gumede
The slowdown in the US economy and the debt crisis in Europe caused by the global financial crisis started in 2008. The simultaneous economic rise of emerging countries such as China, Brazil and India has the potential to remake the world and to refashion existing unequal global power relations between developed countries and developing countries – traditionally skewed in favour of developed countries.
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Turkey, in spite of its high growth rates, increasing global influence and relative stability compared to Muslim neighbours, saw ordinary citizens rise up against Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan for being too paternalistic and too authoritarian. Asli Aydintasbas put it this way: ‘We have a prime minister who has done great deeds and he really has run the economy well. But you also have this paternalistic style: “I know what’s good for you. I, as your father, can decide on the park, the bridge, the city and the constitution.” So, I think people are just wanting to have a more inclusive form of democracy in Turkey.’[9]
China’s long-term stability is uncertain. At the moment China’s approach is one of a managed democratic opening: gradually liberalising its politics but holding opposition, dissent and the Internet on a tight leash while keeping economic growth rates high. China needs Africa’s raw materials to keep on growing at high levels if it is to keep the millions of impoverished Chinese on board. The moment economic growth slackens and the economic benefits to millions of poor Chinese slows, a North African-style revolt against the autocratic government will become a reality there too.
