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Ever-changing cycles

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Patterns in prices that appear in one period tend to disappear as agents learn of the predictable behaviour of others and evolve profitable strategies to exploit them. However, these evolutions take time and apparent price anomalies may persist. New patterns may also appear over time. Such phenomena have also been observed in actual markets. For example, Niederhoffer writes:

results that appeared significant in one period had a tendency to evaporate in subsequent periods. If a phenomenon truly exists, shrewd operators discover it and start anticipating it in following periods, thereby evening out the moves.

He calls this the phenomenon of ‘ever-changing cycles’, which makes it difficult to establish technical trading rules or to develop algorithmic trading strategies based on academic research. That is, the ecology of markets is in constant flux.

Predatory Trading and Crowded Exits

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