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1  1 Carl von Clausewitz, On War, ed. and trans. Michael Howard and Peter Paret (Princeton University Press, 1976), p. 89.

2  2 Martin Libicki, Conquest in Cyberspace (Cambridge University Press, 2007), p. 2. See also his What Is Information Warfare? (Washington, DC: National Defense University Press, 1995). His “mosaic of forms” phrasing first appeared on p. 3 of the earlier study.

3  3 See Robert S. Mueller III, Report on the Investigation into Russian Interference in the 2016 Presidential Election (Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 2019).

4  4 Clausewitz, On War, p. 84.

5  5 Cited in David E. Sanger and Julie Hirschfeld Davis, “Data Breach Tied to China Hit Millions,” The New York Times, June 5, 2015.

6  6 See Damian Paletta, “OPM Breach Was Enormous, FBI Director Says,” The Wall Street Journal, July 8, 2015.

7  7 Lily Hay Newman, “Hack Brief: 885 Million Sensitive Financial Records Exposed,” Wired, May 24, 2019.

8  8 Eric Tucker, “US Researchers Warned of Theft,” Associated Press, October 7, 2019.

9  9 See Michael McGuire, Into the Web of Profit: Understanding the Growth of the Cybercrime Economy (Cupertino, CA: Bromium, Inc., 2018).

10 10 “North Korea Targets Cryptocurrency Exchanges, Banks” (New York: United Nations Security Council), August 5, 2019.

11 11 This theme is explored in Florian Egloff, “Cybersecurity and the Age of Privateering,” in George Perkovich and Ariel E. Levite, eds., Understanding Cyber Conflict: 14 Analogies (Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press, 2017), especially p. 233.

12 12 George Quester, Offense and Defense in the International System (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1977).

13 13 See Thomas Rid, Cyberwar Will Not Take Place (Oxford University Press, 2013).

14 14 On cyber aspects of this conflict, see John Markoff, “Before the Gunfire, Cyberattacks,” The New York Times, August 12, 2008. See also Ronald Asmus, A Little War That Shook the World (New York: St. Martin’s Press, 2010).

15 15 Adam Meyers, “Danger Close: Fancy Bear Tracking of Ukrainian Field Artillery Units,” CrowdStrike, December 2016, revised March 2017.

16 16 On the Ivano-Frankivsk infrastructure attack, and Tom Bossert’s estimate of the cost of the damage done, see Andy Greenberg, “The Untold Story of NotPetya, the Most Devastating Cyberattack in History,” Wired (August 2018).

17 17 The classic account of this conflict is still Hugh Thomas’s The Spanish Civil War (New York: Harper & Brothers, Publishers, 1961).

18 18 For more detail, see Charles Messenger, The Blitzkrieg Story (New York: Charles Scribner’s Sons, 1976), p. 127.

19 19 Karl-Heinz Frieser and J. T. Greenwood, The Blitzkrieg Legend: The 1940 Campaign in the West (Annapolis: Naval Institute Press, 2005), p. 10.

20 20 From William L. Shirer, The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1960), pp. 701, 703.

21 21 This view is thoughtfully exposited in Scott Shane, Dismantling Utopia: How Information Ended the Soviet Union (Chicago: Ivan R. Dee, 1994).

22 22 Donald Coers, John Steinbeck Goes to War: The Moon Is Down as Propaganda (Tuscaloosa: University of Alabama Press, 2006).

23 23 Cited in Steve Sheinkin, Bomb: The Race to Build – and Steal – the World’s Most Dangerous Weapon (New York: Roaring Brook Press, 2012), p. 163.

24 24 Cited in David E. Sanger, Confront and Conceal: Obama’s Secret Wars and Surprising Use of American Power (New York: Crown Publishers, 2012), p. 200.

25 25 Nicole Perlroth, “Cyberattack on Saudi Firm Disquiets U.S.,” The New York Times, October 24, 2012.

26 26 See Samuel Gibbs, “Triton: Hackers Take Out Safety Systems in Watershed Attack on Energy Plant,” The Guardian, December 15, 2017; and Martin Giles, “Triton is the World’s Most Murderous Malware – and It’s Spreading,” Technology Review, March 5, 2019.

27 27 Frederik Pohl, The Cool War (New York: Del Rey Books, 1981).

28 28 Joseph Nye, “Deterrence and Dissuasion in Cyberspace,” International Security, 41, 3 (2017), p. 55.

29 29 Norbert Wiener, The Human Use of Human Beings (London: Eyre & Spottiswoode, 1954).

30 30 See John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt, “Cyberwar Is Coming!” Comparative Strategy, 12, 2 (April–June, 1993), pp. 141–65. Quotes are from pp. 141, 145. Emphasis added.

31 31 John Keegan, The Second World War (New York: Viking, 1990), p. 87.

32 32 Ibid., p. 156.

33 33 Michael Carver, “Conventional Warfare in the Nuclear Age,” in Peter Paret, ed., Makers of Modern Strategy (Princeton University Press, 1986), p. 803. On the Six-Day War, see Michael B. Oren, Six Days of War (Oxford University Press, 2002).

34 34 C. Kenneth Allard, “The Future of Command and Control: Toward a Paradigm of Information Warfare,” in L. Benjamin Ederington and Michael J. Mazarr, eds., Turning Point: The Gulf War and U.S. Military Strategy (Boulder: Westview Press, 1995), p. 163.

35 35 See Roger C. Molander, Andrew S. Riddile, and Peter A. Wilson, Strategic Information Warfare: A New Face of War (Santa Monica: RAND, 1996). A comprehensive early study of the Pentagon’s narrower conception of cyberwar, and the choice to focus on it primarily as a mode of strategic attack, can be found in Gregory Rattray, Strategic Warfare in Cyberspace (Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 2001).

36 36 The movie was based on Harry Bates’s short story, “Farewell to the Master,” published in the October 1940 issue of Astounding Science Fiction. The story was novelized by Arthur Tofte, The Day the Earth Stood Still (London: Scholastic, Inc., 1976). While the original Klaatu acted carefully and demonstratively, the aliens in the 2008 remake of the film, starring Keanu Reeves, chose to intervene more destructively, in the end denying humanity any use of electricity.

37 37 Robert A. Pape’s Bombing to Win: Air Power and Coercion in War (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1996) is a comprehensive study of the limits of strategic aerial bombardment. See also Tami Davis Biddle, Rhetoric and Reality in Air Warfare: The Evolution of British and American Ideas about Strategic Bombing, 1914–1945 (Princeton University Press, 2002).

38 38 James Adams, The Next World War: Computers Are the Weapons and the Front Line Is Everywhere (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1998), p. 97.

39 39 For insight into this perspective, see Wesley Clark, Waging Modern War: Bosnia, Kosovo, and the Future of Combat (New York: PublicAffairs, 2001), especially pp. 259, 342–3.

40 40 Ivo H. Daalder and Michael E. O’Hanlon, Winning Ugly: NATO’s War to Save Kosovo (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2000).

41 41 See John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt, “Need for High-Tech, Networked Cyberwar,” The Los Angeles Times, June 20, 1999.

42 42 The most detailed account of this campaign can be found in Doug Stanton, Horse Soldiers (New York: Scribner, 2009).

43 43 See Donald H. Rumsfeld, “Transforming the Military,” Foreign Affairs (May/June 2002).

44 44 John Keegan, The Iraq War (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2004), p. 145.

45 45 Lieutenant General Paul Van Riper USMC (Ret.) and Lieutenant Colonel F. G. Hoffman USMCR, “Pursuing the Real Revolution in Military Affairs: Exploiting Knowledge-Based Warfare,” National Security Studies Quarterly, 4, 1 (Winter 1998), p. 12.

46 46 Michael Maclear, The Ten Thousand Day War: Vietnam 1945–1975 (New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1981), p. 191.

47 47 Victor Davis Hanson, The Savior Generals: How Five Great Commanders Saved Wars That Were Lost – From Ancient Greece to Iraq (London: Bloomsbury Press, 2013), p. 229. On this same point, see also Thomas E. Ricks, The Gamble: General David Petraeus and the American Military Adventure in Iraq, 2006–2008 (New York: The Penguin Press, 2009), p. 163.

48 48 António Guterres, “Remarks at Web Summit,” United Nations, November 8, 2018.

49 49 Cited in Samuel Gibbs, “Musk, Wozniak and Hawking Urge Ban on Warfare AI and Autonomous Weapons,” The Guardian, July 28, 2015.

50 50 Michael Crichton, Electronic Life: How to Think About Computers (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1983), pp. 135–6.

51 51 For a concise overview of military applications of robotics, see John Arquilla, “Meet A.I. Joe,” Communications of the Association for Computing Machinery, May 1, 2015.

52 52 Kai-Fu Lee, AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order (Boston: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2018), provides an excellent overview of this new competition.

53 53 See, for example: Ewen Montagu, Beyond Top Secret Ultra (New York: Coward, McCann & Geoghegan, Inc., 1978); David Kahn, Seizing the Enigma (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1991); and John Prados, Combined Fleet Decoded (New York: Random House, 1995).

54 54 Marshall McLuhan, Understanding Media: The Extensions of Man (New York: McGraw-Hill Book Company, 1965), p. 23.

55 55 Ibid., p. 27.

56 56 On the first three of these, in Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan, see Lincoln A. Mitchell, The Color Revolutions (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2012).

57 57 See Kevin Kelly, “We Are the Web,” Wired (August 2005).

58 58 John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt, Networks and Netwars: The Future of Terror, Crime, and Militancy (Santa Monica: RAND, 2001).