Читать книгу Psychological Analysis - Adam Sarhan - Страница 45

There is an old adage on Wall Street: “the trend is your friend.” I like to say, “make the trend your friend.” Any seasoned investor and/or speculator can tell you that it is a lot easier (and a lot more profitable) to align yourself with the intermediate‐ and long‐term trend than to try and fight it. Remember, the market and the economy are larger than you. The market does not know you, it is not out to get you, or to do anything to you. It is neutral; it is going to do whatever it wants to do without thinking about your personal situation. It doesn't matter how much money you manage, or even if you are running a major global pension fund; the market is larger than any single participant. This seems like simple advice, but I've seen too many investors in the dumb money circle simply fail to acknowledge market trends, bail out of good positions too early, and try to fight the market, opting to listen to bad advice (instead of listening to the market) or to follow misplaced emotions.

Extending that concept of making the trend your friend, I find that the biggest returns come from aligning yourself with major market movements. That is why, for most casual investors, a long‐term buy‐and‐hold strategy is the way to go. Barring some major unforeseen disruptive global economic, military, or political shock (perhaps even more disruptive and unforeseen than the Civil War, World War I, the Great Depression, and World War II, each of which the economy survived, then thrived after each event was over), the global economy is constantly growing and will most likely continue to do so. As the economy grows, corporate profits grow, and both factors translate into higher equity markets. As we progress deeper into the twenty‐first century, the global economy becomes more integrated, and I take Buffett's American Tailwind concept a step further: there is a powerful Great American Tailwind and a Great Global Tailwind that investors need to recognize and capitalize on.