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5. Winners Focus on Long-Term Results

If you can’t win, lose, just as long as you keep playing.

—Nick “The Greek” Dandolos²⁰

You can’t win every game.... You must think of your wins at the end of the year.

—David Sklansky²¹

These two quotations summarize this chapter’s central principle. Nick “The Greek” Dandolos was a loser, but he was inducted into the Poker Hall of Fame. He is famous primarily for losing a highly publicized series of head-to-head matches against Johnny Moss, his era’s greatest player. Nobody knows exactly how much he lost then, but some estimates range from $2 to $4 million.

“Near the end of his life Dandolos was near broke and playing $5 limit draw poker games in Gardena, California. When asked by a fellow player how he could once play for millions and now be playing for such small stakes, Dandolos supposedly replied, ‘Hey, it’s action, isn’t it?’”²²

He was an excellent player, but his love for action destroyed him. His life epitomized the dangers of focusing on anything but results. But you should also ask, “What kind of results?”

David Sklansky repeatedly answered that question. You must think of long-term results. If you focus on action or short-term results, you will probably end up broke, just like Nick “The Greek.”

The Dangers of Focusing on Anything but Results

There are many action lovers like Nick at every level, from tiny stakes to enormous ones. For example, many no-hopers enter the biggest tournaments for the kick of playing in them. Winners call them “dead money.” Since the prize pool comes from entry fees, this dead money is their primary source of profits. Without dead money, many pros would avoid tournaments because they can’t win much from each other.

Although so few people win, cardroom and online poker are flourishing. The losers pay the winners and the house billions of dollars every year. They do it for the kick of gambling, the experience of challenging better players, the fun of socializing, and a host of other reasons. Regardless of their reasons, not focusing on results virtually guarantees losing.

Winners focus on results because they are intense competitors, and poker success is measured very simply. Results are the only thing that counts.

You get no points for style, grace, knowledge, or anything else. A loser may feel good about winning luckily or outplaying a better player. Winners ignore these pleasures because they know that the scoring system is very simple. If I am a nicer guy, know more theory, make fancier plays, and tell better stories, but you end up with more money, you’re a better player, period, end of story.

Their commitment and focus make winners subordinate everything else to winning. If something doesn’t affect their long term results, they ignore it. It would be more pleasant to relax, gamble for fun, and focus on other things, but they sacrifice these pleasures to maximize their profits.

The Dangers of Focusing on Short-Term Results

Focusing on short-term results is the natural thing to do. Psychological research proves that short-term rewards and punishments have much greater effects on feelings and behavior than longer-term ones.

Because luck has such huge effects, winners know that short-term results can be extremely misleading. A good decision can cost them money, whereas a bad one can yield a profit. You must therefore look beyond the immediate results and focus on every decision’s longer-term consequences.

It is a fundamental premise of the game that you must make correct decisions and not concern yourself with consequences.... Whether you are right or wrong in the current situation makes no difference. What matters is that your judgments are sound, based on the best information available to you. If your judgments are better in the long run than those of your opponents, you will be taking home the money in the long run.²³

Losers react to impulses—including quite foolish ones—then feel vindicated if they get lucky. The immediate kick prevents them from seeing that their decision-making process guarantees that they will be long-term losers.

For example, a loser may foolishly play weak cards, get lucky, and win a huge pot. Instead of recognizing his mistake, he may congratulate himself for being brilliant, intuitive, or courageous. Of course, people who play terrible cards will certainly be long-term losers, but they may look very good for a little while. They may even feel contempt for the “cowardly” or “unimaginative” people who play the percentages, study strategy, and wait for good cards.

Expected Value Equals Long-Term Profit

Poker winners focus on maximizing their long-term expected value (EV). They know that their long-term results will be close to their EV and that making negative EV plays will ultimately be disastrous.

Winners apply the same general principles as casinos. Their operators actually want people to win huge jackpots or get hot at the crap tables. When someone wins big, an operator puts his name and picture on billboards or television. Those rare, highly publicized wins bring in more suckers, and casino managers know that—because the odds favor them—the more money people bet, the more the house must win.

Poker winners think the same way. When suckers make a bad play and get lucky, the suckers get a huge kick. Winners don’t correct their reasoning. Instead, they say, “Well played!” or “You really have a lot of courage.” Winners want suckers to keep making–EV plays because their bad decisions increase the winners’ EV and long-term profits.

They constantly think in terms of EV. They would like to win this hand, of course, but winning it is much less important than maximizing their EV. If they can get a favorable expectation, they know they must ultimately win.

Mathematical expectation has nothing to do with [short-term] results. The imbecile [who makes a foolish bet] might win the first ten in a row, but . . . it makes no difference whether you win or lose a certain bet or series of bets.... If you continue to make these [+EV] bets, you will win.²⁴

The central feature of the professional attitude [is]: The awareness of the need to focus, not on short-term results, but on the quality of your play.²⁵

Losers dream of getting lucky and making brilliant moves, but poker rewards disciplined, +EV play. The courageous (actually foolhardy) gamble that wins against the odds may make your heart pound and other players applaud, but those plays don’t improve your bottom line. It’s another case of the tortoise defeating the hare. The steady players end up with the money. Most profits come from other people’s mistakes, not brilliant moves, and certainly not from–EV plays.

I Play Too Well to Beat These Idiots

Countless losers have this silly belief, and they express it in many different ways:

• “I’d rather play against good players than bad ones.”

• “I’m moving to bigger games so that people will respect my bets and raises.”

• “That game is ‘too good to beat.’”

• “Nobody can beat that game because they call with anything.”

• “No matter how well I play, somebody always draws out on me.”

No matter how that belief is expressed, it is utter, absolute nonsense. It is much easier to beat weak players than strong ones, and you gain from every one of your opponents’–EV plays. However, you must adjust to the way these opponents play. If you try to bluff calling stations or make subtle moves on clueless players, you will lose, and you will deserve to lose.

These beliefs and complaints are based on short-term frustrations, not long-term EV. It is frustrating to have suckers draw out on you, and the more suckers in a game, the more often it will happen. However, winners know that they will be paid very well for that frustration because their profits increase when people play bad cards.²⁶

So stop kidding yourself. Every time your opponents make–EV plays, they increase your EV and long-term profits. “If you do not win in the long run, it is not because your opponents are making too many mistakes; it is because you are.”²⁷

Subtler Short-Term Satisfactions

Some losers commit another type of shortsighted stupidity. They criticize opponents for making mistakes. For example, if someone wins a pot with a miracle card, a loser might say, “That was really stupid. The odds against catching it were 22:1, and you were getting only 4:1.”

He gets the short-term satisfaction of expressing his frustration and perhaps impressing or getting sympathy from other players. But the long-term impact is quite negative. First, he educates his opponents, making them harder to beat. Second, he may embarrass weak players, causing them to play better, move to another table, go home, or even stop playing poker.

A key part of a long-term focus is making short-term sacrifices of other satisfactions. For example, you may start by playing very aggressively to create the impression that you’re a wild player and then take advantage of that image by playing very conservatively. Chapters 16 and 17 will tell you when and how to be deceptive. Now I will just give an example I read over forty years ago, but never forgot.

Oswald Jacoby, a great bridge and poker player, once put chips on his hole card every time it was an ace in five-card stud. After his opponents had spotted it, he stopped doing it, and he even folded a few times (which cost him money) to preserve the illusion. Finally, he had one ace up and one in the hole. After waiting until all the cards had been dealt and knowing that his hand was unbeatable, he pushed in his stack. His opponent was sure Jacoby was bluffing and called. The small cost of setting the trap earned him a huge profit.

Personal Development

“Although they focus on the long term when discussing how to play hands, many poker writers have a short-term, narrow focus. They concentrate on how to play hands, not on your long-term personal development.”²⁸

In order to develop your skills, you will often have to reduce your short-term profits or even (gasp) take some losses. Every hour you spend studying or preparing in other ways obviously costs you the money you could win by playing. You can win the most by playing in soft games, but if you always do so, you won’t develop the skills you need to move up and win more money.

Barry Tanenbaum agrees. He once played heads-up against a world-famous player. When I asked why he would take such a “foolish” gamble, he said, “I could learn something, and what I learned might make me more profit in the future.” He said that always trying for the maximum EV was the same as a “company’s maximizing short-term profits by eliminating its R&D department.”

Barry is a long-term winner and highly respected writer. Follow his lead and think of the real long term. Play to maximize your EV, but also invest the time, energy, and money to maximize your lifetime’s profits.²⁹

Winners’ Laws

These laws will help you to shift your focus from short-term satisfactions to the broader, longer-term picture.

1. Ask yourself constantly: Am I focusing on long-term results or short-term satisfactions?

If you don’t ask that question, the natural tendency to emphasize short-term rewards and punishments will distract you from focusing on your long-term EV. You will make mistakes for emotional or careless reasons and may not make necessary investments in your self-development.

2. Emphasize making good decisions, and minimize short-term results.

If you focus too much on short-term results, you’ll distract yourself from the important issue: did you make the right decision?

If the answer is yes, don’t worry about the results. If the answer is no, work on your decision-making skills.

3. Record your wins and losses accurately.

If you do not write down every chip you buy and cash in, you will probably delude yourself about your long-term results. You will “forget” how many chips you bought or ignore some losses. You may even make excuses such as, “I did not write down last night’s loss because I was drinking, terribly unlucky, distracted by a family problem,” and so on.

Without accurate records you will probably make bad decisions. For example, you may not know that you lose in certain games. If you enjoy those games, you will keep playing in them.

Accurate records will also help you to cope with bad beats, losing sessions, and losing streaks. Comparing them to your total wins or losses will show you that they don’t matter that much.

4. Minimize everything else and focus on whatever improves your long-term results.

You may object that this narrow focus is unbalanced and unhealthy. I agree, but—as I said earlier—this book is about winning, not mental health or lifestyles. The biggest winners are not balanced. To be a big winner, you must focus on your long-term results.

How Do You Rate?

This rating scale assesses your tendency to focus on the long-term results or short-term rewards and punishments.

Circle the number that best describes your agreement with this statement: While playing poker, I am extremely focused on long-term results. I nearly ignore short-term rewards and punishments. (7) Agree strongly, (6) Agree, (5) Agree somewhat, (4) Neutral, (3) Disagree somewhat, (2) Disagree, (1) Disagree strongly.

Circle that number in the appropriate place on page 262.

The Critical Questions

Review this chapter, especially the Winners’ Laws and How Do You Rate? sections. Then answer two questions:

1. What are the implications of my self-rating?

2. What should I do differently? List specific actions you should take to improve your focus on long-term results.

Discuss your answers with someone you trust and take good notes.