Читать книгу Probabilistic Economic Theory - Anatoly Kondratenko - Страница 11

Having a method to more or less evaluate the price quantitatively is always advantageous, as it helps us to somewhat predict market prices. Using the main rule of work on the market is used to this end, and this strategic rule of decision making can be briefly formulated as follows: “Sell all – Buy at all”. This main market rule indicates the following different strategies of market actions (action on the market is setting out quotations) for both the seller and the buyer. For the seller this strategy consists in striving to sell all the goods planned to sale at the maximally possible highest prices. Whereas for the buyer this strategy consists in the fact that it will expend all the money planned for the purchase of goods and try to purchase in this case as much as possible at the possible smallest price. Thus, the main market rule leads to the corresponding algorithms of the actions of agents on the markets, which are graphically represented in the form of agents’ trajectories in the pictures. The point of intersection and the respective trade volume in the market, MTV, are easily found with the help of the following mathematical formulas:

It is natural here to name D₁⁰(t₁) the total demand of buyer at the initial moment of trading. The sense of this quantity is in the fact that this is quantity of resources, planned for the purchase of goods, expressed in the money, although the dimension of this demand is the dimension of money price ($/ton) multiplied by the dimension of quantity (ton). In our case, this is $. We emphasize that, over the course of development of quantitative theory, this is very important in order to draw attention to the dimension of the used quantities and parameters, and to the normalization of the applied functions (see below).

By analogy with classical mechanics, we can treat these prices and quantity functions as the trajectories of movement of the market agents in the two-dimensional economic PQ-space as it was displayed in Fig. 3.

In principle, this representation gives nothing new in comparison with Figs. 1 and 2. Nevertheless, there is one interesting nuance here, in which the similarity of this diagram can be compared to the traditional picture in the conceptual neoclassical model of S&D. We will examine this question below. But let us now focus attention on the following nuances in the picture in Fig. 3. First, it is clearly shown by the arrows, that the buyer and the seller seemingly move towards each other on the price, with the seller reducing it, and the buyer, on the contrary, increasing it. From this, we can reflect on the illustration of normal market negotiation processes. Secondly, usually the quotations of quantities are reduced during the process of negotiations both by the buyer and by the seller. Clearly, all agents want to purchase or to sell a smaller quantity of goods at the compromise market price than at the most desired, presented at the very beginning of trading.

Fig. 3. Dynamics of the classical two-agent market economy in the two-dimensional economic price-quantity space within the first time interval [t₁, t₁^E].

And now we turn from the simplest economy to a more developed economy, in which the farmer and hunter gradually switch from the discrete trade system (one trade per year) to the continuous trade system on the market. Generally speaking, negotiations are conducted continuously and transactions are accomplished continuously, depending on the needs of the buyer and the seller. This would continue for many years. Taking into account this new long-term outlook it is expedient to change somewhat the method of describing the work of the market. Namely, by quotations of a quantity of goods, it is now more convenient to represent a quantity of goods during a specific and reasonable period of time, for example year, if the discussion deals with the long-standing work of the market. In this case the dimension of a quantity would be represented by ton/year. We show in Figs. 4, 5 how it is possible to graphically represent the work of the market over a long span of time. We see that before the establishment of equilibrium at point E, transactions were of course accomplished, but probably did not bring maximum satisfaction to the participants in the market. This would induce agents to continue to search for long-term compromises in prices and quantities. After reaching equilibrium, the volume of trade reaches a maximum, and participants in the market therefore attempt to further support this equilibrium.

Fig. 4. The classical stationary and non-stationary two-agent market economies in the [T, P] and [T, Q] coordinate systems in the time interval t > t^E.

Fig. 5. The classical stationary and non-stationary two-agent market economies in the [T, S&D] – coordinate system.

Here a fork appears in the following theory: – look at Figs. 5 and 6. If quotations cease to change, then the economy converts to a stationary state in which time appears to disappear. This is especially noticeable in Fig. 6, where this sort of stationary state is described by one point, E. We will label the economies in the stationary state simply the stationary economies. But if quotations vary with time, then the economy will be named the time-dependent or simply non-stationary economies. In Figs. 5 and 6 they are represented by two lines, which emanate from the equilibrium point E. If in this case the equilibrium quantity grows, then the economy is a growing one. But if it decreases, then the economy is falling one, which clearly is represented in Fig. 5. As a rule, in such cases, the total S&D behave similarly and this can be easily seen in Fig. 5. Let us note that their dimensions in this model have also changed, now equaling $ · ton/year.

Fig. 6. The classical stationary and non-stationary two-agent market economies in the economic price-quantity space at t > t^E.