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Why Average Returns Aren't Normal

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If we look at various 30‐year investment periods, global stock markets have averaged 9 to 11 percent per year. But individual calendar year returns that land precisely within that range are about as normal as a two‐headed poodle.

During my lifetime, it has happened once. Global stocks gained 10.06 percent in 1987 (See Table 1.1).

It's much the same for the US stock market. Between 1970 and 2020, US stocks recorded calendar year gains between 9 and 11 percent just twice. In 1993, they gained 10.1 percent and in 2004, they earned 10.9 percent. The rest of the time, stocks soared, sank, or sputtered.1

US stocks averaged 10.68 percent between 1970 and 2020, but single‐year performances were schizophrenic. On 10 occasions, US stocks recorded annual losses. On the flip side, stocks gained 25 percent or more during 12 other calendar years. Stock market volatility is normal and it always will be.

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