Читать книгу Interpreting and Using Statistics in Psychological Research - Andrew N. Christopher - Страница 16

In addition to not using information about probability, we as human beings also have a need to perceive order in the world. Think about being at a party, and you suddenly find yourself around people you do not know. You know almost nothing about them (other than they are at the same party you are), so what do you say to them? You have almost no idea where to begin to strike up a conversation. Maybe you look at their clothes for some hint of what they are like. If someone is wearing a University of Florida T-shirt, you might ask them if they are from the state of Florida and perhaps mention you visited there (assuming that you did). You look for something, anything, to break the uneasiness of that situation. Even for the most socially outgoing among us, it is an awkward situation. So, you start looking to make connections with these people.

Figure 1.2 Two Equally Likely Outcomes

Our need to make connections is powerful. The world is much less stressful when it is predictable. Therefore, our minds seek to make connections between events in the world. We will highlight two of these tendencies now. The first tendency concerns perceiving connections that in fact do not exist. The second of these tendencies is a result of the first and concerns the misinterpretation of future events based on prior events.