Читать книгу Sociology - Anthony Giddens - Страница 262

The Limits study used modern computermodelling techniques to make forecasts about the consequences of continued economic growth, population growth, pollution and the depletion of natural resources. Their computer model – World3 – showed what would happen if the trends that were established between 1900 and 1970 were to continue to the year 2100. The computer projections were then altered to generate a variety of possible consequences, depending on different rates of growth of the factors considered. The researchers found that, each time they altered one variable, there would eventually be an environmental crisis. If the world’s societies failed to change, then growth would end anyway sometime before 2100, through the depletion of resources, food shortages or industrial collapse.

The research team used computer modelling to explore five global trends (Meadows et al. 1972: 21):

 accelerating industrialization across the world

 rapid population growth

 widespread malnutrition in some regions

 depletion of non-renewable resources

 a deteriorating natural environment.

The programme was then run to test twelve alternative scenarios, each one manipulated to resolve some of the identified problems. This allowed the researchers to ask questions about which combinations of population levels, industrial output and natural resources would be sustainable. The conclusion they drew in 1972 was that there was still time to put off the emerging environmental crisis. But, if nothing was done – and even if the amount of available resources in the model were doubled, pollution were reduced to pre-1970s levels and new technologies were introduced – economic growth would still grind to a halt before 2100. Some campaigners saw this as vindicating the radical environmental argument that industrial societies were just not sustainable over the long term.