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Chapter 9. Risks of human extinction      

– Who has thoughts, suggestions on the subject, where to look and what to look for? – Rutra asked those present.

– My assumption is that we should not look for a secret source, but an obvious one," said the F Division officer.

– More precisely.

– Yuri Vasilyevich touched on the need for the complete elimination of nuclear weapons. With the current level of top-secret weapons, this is quite realistic. I do not mean physically, but as a means of defense for highly developed countries, which are the main nuclear powers. That is, they can afford it without compromising their defense capabilities. There is something to replace them with. But how? How to present it to the people? If we reveal the secret about the available means of influence on people, there is a high probability that it will be perceived that these means can be used not only against enemies. That is, against our own people as well. For example, a psychotropic bomb.

– Be specific," Ruthra asked calmly.

– The point is that the search method manual has clear instructions that are not about search methodology. It is to prepare the public opinion that the catastrophe threatening the demise of mankind is very real.

No one was friends with the "F" department, because they were withdrawn, taciturn people. Therefore, no one asked questions or entered into a discussion, which was customary at Zero meetings.

– Say what you want to say," Ruthra demanded.

– I do not want to say that we have not been told something, but I just want to suggest that, since this is required by the program of action, the following information should be disseminated in the media. Over time, people have apparently forgotten that once the apocalypse on a global scale was discussed quite seriously.

– What exactly? – Ruthra asked.

– Now. I do not insist on this particular option, I only want to suggest that such a thing should take hold of people's minds. Then, perhaps, the one who is up to something will take certain steps and make a mark. That is, we can calculate him, so to speak, by markers.

– I see your point. You think people will take this seriously?

– Depends on who's presenting it. Let me read the material, then I'll share my thoughts.

Ruthra glanced over to the staff. Some, mostly young, expressed curiosity, while the older ones, the "veteran group," expressed skepticism.

– So, listen. I think many people will be surprised that this has been discussed at a serious scientific level.

– Come on! – Ruthra couldn't take it anymore.

– Smith, in his book The End of the World Men, describes the history of how the cobalt bomb was first proposed in this way. I will cite some excerpts. "You may ask," Scillard said, anticipating his critics, "who would want to kill everyone on earth? Any country that wants to be invincible in war." "Let's suppose," he explained, "that we are engaged in a war and are on the verge of winning a war with Russia that has lasted, say, ten years. The Russians might say, 'You will not go beyond this border, or we will detonate our hydrogen bombs and kill everyone.'" Faced with that kind of threat, I don't think we can continue. I think Russia will be invincible." In a public lecture the following month, Brown told the audience that he was now convinced that there were people who were prepared to destroy all life on Earth if they did not get their way. The only ray of hope remains that "those who would want to use these weapons to kill must accept suicide as a condition of the deal."

The F employee was quiet for a moment and added:

– That's what I suggest we put on the air.

The hall was silent, digesting what they had heard.

– Any other thoughts? – Ruthra asked in his superior capacity.

The hall was silent, many were writing something down.

The head of the demography department raised her hand. At the same time, the same F department employee offered:

– If there are no objections, I can continue.

Ruthra wanted to already give the word to Madame that she had raised her hand, however, she asked politely:

– Uh, no, no. Can I go after him?

– What else you got? – Ruthra turned to the man who had suggested he continue.

– If that's the case, the logical thing to do is the following," he said. – We need to get people to think about it, to make them realize that it could happen. We need to use everything: lectures, movies, music, talk shows, politicians, scientists, military. You have to give examples and constantly scare them. I will tell you, give examples, what information and how you can use it. Attitudes toward the problem of human extinction depend largely on an individual's belief in life after death, ideas about the value of the human race. Human extinction is part of many people's belief in the sense that the end of the world means the absolute end of their earthly existence but not of their eternal soul. Some religions allow for cyclical regeneration. However, most religions do not associate the end of the world with human extinction, since the end of the world means in reality the beginning of a new way of existence, with the Christian religion saying that after the end of the world, all humans who have ever lived will live forever with their bodies, but elsewhere. However, there are the following reasons why the risk of extinction of humanity is not obvious: throughout history there have been countless predictions of human extinction. In all cases, the predicted end-of-the-world date has passed without any consequences, making subsequent warnings less frightening. There are thousands of public safety jobs dedicated to analyzing and reducing the risks of individual death. Yet there is not a single person dedicated to human extinction risks working full time, in part because there is no way to know if they are doing their job well. Pondering human extinction has become unfashionable. Denialism is a kind of negative availability heuristic that occurs when the outcome of events is so unpleasant that even the very act of thinking about them leads to a growing reluctance to believe that such a thing could happen. This leads to an underestimation of the likelihood of human extinction. In general, humanity's sense of self-preservation and intelligence is seen as a strong defense against extinction. It is believed that people will find creative solutions to overcome potential threats and will use the precautionary principle when undertaking dangerous endeavors.

The member of the "F" department, pondering something was silent, and then continued again:

– The arguments against this are as follows. First, managing potentially disruptive technologies is becoming increasingly difficult. Second, the precautionary principle is often discarded when the rewards seem to outweigh the risks. One example of the precautionary principle being discarded already exists: before the detonation of the first Trinity atomic bomb, one of the scientists involved in the project, Edward Teller, suggested that a nuclear reaction could destroy the entire state of New Mexico and perhaps even the entire world by causing a nitrogen fusion reaction in the atmosphere. Hans Bethe's calculations proved that this was impossible, but anxiety remained until the moment of testing. Various scenarios of human extinction come from science, popular culture, science fiction, and religion. Humans are probably the only species that has a conscious awareness of its future demise, likely to take steps to avoid it

Many examples could be given. I think that's enough to start with. I have no other suggestions for now.

With these words the specialist of department "F" finished his speech, listening to whom outsiders would understand why this department in "Zero" is called "the department of fantasists".

– You have something, am I reading that right? – Rutra asked the person in charge of world demography.

– May I?

– We must! – Ruthra motivated her. – Don't forget that all traditional methods have been tried.

– Can I start? – She asked.

– We are listening to you," Ruthra replied.

– I have an article.

– Familiarize us with her," Ruthra asked.

– Reporting," she said in an accent of uncertain origin.

It was clear that she had come to Zero from the security services, the SVR or some similar foreign service. Rutra did not yet have access to the initial employee profiles.

– My article touches on such a topic as World War III. It is an event that many believe cannot happen because of its fundamental insanity. But I think it is quite realistic.

What do we put into the meaning of the expression World War III? World War III is first of all a global military conflict. In case of massive use of nuclear weapons in the Third World War, most of humanity may be destroyed. According to experts of the UN Commission, the total stockpile of nuclear weapons is about 10 gigatons in TNT equivalent. According to the estimates of the international journal of the Swedish Academy of Sciences, dropping 5000 nuclear shells with a total capacity of two gigatons on the main cities of the northern hemisphere could lead to the simultaneous death of 750 million people from only one of the striking factors – the shock wave. Thus, according to scientists' estimates, the nuclear arsenal of mankind is sufficient for its complete extermination. Literature and cinematography often play up the possibility of the defense system going out of control of the country's political leadership or an irresponsible leader coming to power, which leads to mutual destruction of opponents, despite the practical senselessness of such a strategic decision. The consequences of nuclear war could theoretically lead to catastrophic changes in the climate and environmental conditions of the planet. This view has largely defined nuclear weapons as weapons of strategic deterrence of opponents from the outbreak of nuclear conflict. At the beginning of the 21st century, the main points of tension are on the borders between Pakistan and India, and Israel and Palestine. On the side of the latter is Iran. The Indo-Pakistani conflict has escalated in the early 21st century because both states have received nuclear weapons from their patrons and are actively building up their military power. Today, military supplies to Pakistan are provided by the United States, and arms supplies to India are provided by Russia, but at the same time Pakistan is showing increased interest in possible military-technical cooperation with Russia, and the United States is making attempts to oust Russia from the Indian arms market. The situation around the Arab-Israeli conflict is similar: the United States is an ally of Israel, while Arab states traditionally buy weapons from Russia. If the Arab-Israeli conflict develops to the level of war, a direct or indirect confrontation between the nuclear powers – the United States and Russia – may arise. We don't even have to make up scary stories, I think it is enough to emphasize the statements of well-known politicians on this problem. For example, the former U.S. presidential candidate, "the situation in Crimea is part of the whole scenario, that is, the scenario of the Third World War." Or the first president, "Putin could be the initiator of World War III." And one of the party leaders in Russia, who likes to shake the air, said that Russia is being prepared for a big war, as the decision to start World War III has already been made.

The very article I am proposing can be discussed on some popular forum or on an analysis program on television.

She was silent. Ruthra realized that the speech was over.

– Do you have everything? – He asked.

– Yeah, I guess so.

– Who else would like to speak? Any suggestions? – Ruthra asked the audience.

No one answered.

– Most importantly, don't forget that people do what they think and fear what they think. I think it has become clear to you that the media work is the first part of the project. There will be other parts going on in parallel. Depending on what results the first part brings, the other parts will be adjusted. If there are no further proposals, this meeting is adjourned," Rutra announced.