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Chapter 2: Nuclear War and Climate Change
Оглавление– Another presentation on the topic of impacts, in particular climate change, from our colleague, the Master of the Academy of Sciences. You have the floor.
Yarovitovich did not turn his face, did not point at anyone. It was not quite clear how the next speaker realized that he had been given the floor. Apparently, there was one Master of the Academy of Sciences on the board. The area on the table in front of him lit up.
– I present to your attention a study on the topic "Nuclear War – Possible Climate Change". For many decades the threat of nuclear catastrophe has been hovering over mankind, and scientists of different specialties and all countries have tried to estimate its possible size. Direct destruction and mass deaths during atomic explosions, murderous radiation, diseases and many other things that await mankind in the outcome of a nuclear war have been repeatedly subjected to careful analysis. The conclusions have been horrifying and have disturbed great masses of people. And yet the published results did not provide a clear answer to the question of the possible fate of human civilization after nuclear war. The impression was created that a nuclear war could seemingly end with the victory of one of the warring countries. This created illusions and could be a source of tragic designs. With all the possible variants, no one from military and political strategists considered the option that a nuclear war would have such climatic consequences that mankind would in no way survive! In the late 70s, the Max Planck Institute of Physical Chemistry began to seriously study the phenomena of large-scale fires. The phenomenon of occurrence and development of a large-scale fire with sufficient oxygen, for example, in a forest with a strong wind, was called a fire tornado. Fire tornadoes have the following peculiarity: they eject a huge amount of soot-like material into the upper atmosphere and the stratosphere. The soot that rises into the atmosphere is practically impervious to sunlight. In other words, on the surface of the Earth under the canopy of these clouds, even on the sunniest day it will be darker than on an inclement moonless night. Naturally, not receiving light and heat, the surface of the Earth under the soot clouds will begin to cool down quickly. Hypothetically possible events will occur – "nuclear winter" and "nuclear night". After formation of soot clouds, the Earth's surface will cease to be heated by solar rays and the temperature will drop sharply. Already in the first month the average temperature of the land surface in the northern hemisphere may decrease by 15-20 and even by 25 degrees Celsius, and in some places remote from the oceans – by 30-35 degrees. As a result, the biosphere will receive such a blow that it is unlikely to recover and return to its original state. If life can survive on land after a nuclear catastrophe, it will be in a very damaged form. In any case, the higher animals will not survive the catastrophe. One can think that the same fate will befall the living world of the ocean. Indeed, the initial link of all oceanic trophic chains is phytoplankton. But it will most likely perish, although the ocean temperature will change only slightly. The reason for its death will be different: for more than a year phytoplankton will be deprived of sunlight – the basis of its vital activity. A nuclear strike on the biosphere dramatically changes the path of its evolution. The consequences cannot be predicted in every detail. The biosphere will probably not disappear altogether. However, it will undergo such a qualitative reorganization that will exclude the possibility of further existence of higher animals and plants, which will probably perish during the nuclear winter. It goes without saying that the same fate will befall man, no matter where he is, whether in the United States or Russia, South Africa or Australia. No matter where in the world a nuclear strike occurs (with or without retaliation), its climatic consequence will be a "nuclear winter" that humanity will not be able to survive. In addition to the climatic consequences of a nuclear strike, there would be devastating concentrations of radiation that would exceed the lethal dose over a large area of the Earth's surface, explosions of nuclear power plants, epidemics, and much more. My report is finished," the speaker said and fell silent.
The lighted section of the table in front of him went out.