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Table of Contents

Preface

Abbreviations

I Introduction

I.1 The background

I.1.1 Preserving the unipolar moment

I.1.2 On the ground: the U.S. in Central and Eastern Europe

I.2 Empirical objectives

II The theoretical framework and methodology

II.1 Introduction and research questions

II.1.1 Neoclassical realism: an introduction

II.1.2 Elite perceptions: of more than just the system?

II.2 Non-friends, friends and undecided states

II.2.1 Non-friends

II.2.2 Friends

II.2.3 Concluding remarks: undecided states

II.3 Two types of power resources and foreign policy tools

II.3.1 Power in political realism

II.3.2 Positive and negative power: the relevance of base values

II.3.3 Negative power and its bases

II.3.4 Positive power and its bases

II.3.5 Power resources and foreign policy tools

II.4 Linking states' friend / non-friend / undecided status to power

II.5 Concluding remarks on the theoretical framework

II.6 Methodological considerations

II.6.1 The cases

II.6.2 Sources

II.6.3 Research design: Comparative case studies

II.6.4 Three steps in addressing the sources

III U.S. Foreign Policies Towards Poland

III.1 Introduction

III.2 Laying the foundations: the U.S. and Solidarność

III.2.1 Accompanying Poland to de facto independence 1989–1991

III.2.2 Foreign Policy Tools in Solidarność-times

III.3 An emerging new best friend in Europe: the second Gulf War and NATO enlargement

III.3.1 Euro-Atlantic integration or: Overcoming Yalta

III.3.2 Foreign policy tools 1991 to 2000

III.4 The heydays and their aftermath: 2001 onwards

III.4.1 State Tourism: Bush, Kwaśniewski and the Iraq war

III.4.2 Foreign policy tools 2001 to 2005

III.5 After Kwaśniewski: 2005 onwards

III.5.1 The double Kaczyński era

III.5.2 Donald Tusk, the conclusion of the Missile Defence Agreement—and still no visa waiver programme

III.5.3 Foreign policy tools after Kwaśniewski

III.6 Conclusions on U.S. foreign policies towards Poland 1989–2008

IV U.S. Foreign Policies Towards Ukraine

IV.1 Introduction: America's recognition of Ukraine's independence

IV.2 The early years: Moscow-centrism and a focus on nuclear non-proliferation 1991 to 1994

IV.2.1 Solving the nuclear question

IV.2.2 The Lisbon Protocol and Ukraine's accession to the NPT as a nuclear-free state

IV.2.3 Foreign Policy Tools in solving the nuclear question

IV.3 Conventional non-proliferation: Ukraine's accession to the MTCR, Bushehr and the Satellite Deal 1994 to 1998

IV.3.1 Getting Ukraine to join the MTCR

IV.3.2 The Policy of issue linkage: non-proliferation, nuclear power plants and satellites

IV.3.3 Foreign Policy Tools in making Ukraine join the MTCR

IV.4 Euro-Atlantic integration: Ukraine in its wider context 1994 to 2004

IV.4.1 The U.S.-Ukrainian honeymoon: broadening relations

IV.4.2 Setbacks and frustration

IV.4.3 Multilateralising Ukraine's transformation: Ukraine and NATO

IV.4.4 Foreign Policy Tools in promoting Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic integration

IV.5 After the Orange Revolution: diminished U.S. interest 2004 to 2008

IV.5.1 Few illusions left: the Orange Revolution and its aftermath

IV.5.2 Foreign policy tools 2004 to 2008

IV.6 Conclusions on U.S. foreign policies towards Ukraine

V U.S. Foreign Policies Towards Belarus

V.1 Introduction: At odds with the West

V.2 Belarus and the US: the early years

V.2.1 Belarus: The unproblematic answer to the nuclear question

V.2.2 Foreign policy tools in early U.S.-Belarusian relations

V.3 Lukashenka and "Selective Engagement" with Minsk

V.3.1 Rigged elections and referenda: Deteriorating relations

V.3.2 The Belarus Democracy Act

V.3.3 Political Prisoners, Sanctions and Personae Non Gratae

V.3.4 "Selective engagement" and foreign policy tools

V.4 The wider context: Belarus in international politics

V.4.1 The Bush II era: Belarus as a rogue state?

V.4.2 Belarus and Euro-Atlantic Integration

V.4.3 The wider context and foreign policy tools

V.5 Conclusions on U.S. foreign policies towards Belarus 1991–2008

VI Conclusions

VI.1 Returning to the research questions

VI.2 Empirical findings: U.S. post-Cold War policies towards Poland, Ukraine and Belarus

VI.3 Implications for theory building: linking status to power

VI.3.1 Friends, non-friends and undecided states: an element of the missing link

VI.3.2 A category of its own: undecided states

VI.3.3 Positive and negative power as means to shape and control the environment

VI.4 Final remarks

Annex

High-level contacts between the U.S. and Poland, Ukraine and Belarus

References

Primary Sources

Speeches, Press Releases and Briefings*

Background Notes

Treaties, Laws, Reports and Official Strategies

Websites

Books and Articles

Media Sources

Soviet and Post-Soviet Politics and Society

Copyright