Читать книгу The Foreign Exchange Matrix - Barbara Rockefeller - Страница 44

Currency traders, like soldiers in battle, utilise the best available radar to ascertain how the war is going and how to develop the best offensive and defensive tactics. The use of risk indicators helps them formulate their worldview. We must stress that these indicators are not infallible and don’t always dictate dollar direction exactly, or how long an FX trend will last. In terms of a shift in the risk trend or the extension of a risk trend, while there are clear ramifications for FX, it is not always clear what they are.

For example, during the first half of 2012, the CBOE’s VIX spent a good portion of its time in risk friendly, sub-20 territory. Even as the crisis in the euro zone escalated and Greece held a second run-off election and Spanish banks were bailed out, the VIX could not even break above 30, let alone retest the 47.56 high seen in 2011. An FX trader using the VIX alone as a risk gauge might not have known to expect the sizable safe-haven dollar demand that was seen during the first half of the year.

In addition to risk indicators, FX traders keep a close eye on existing positions and country flows, which we will explore more in Chapter 6.