Читать книгу Reason: Book I - Bo Bennett - Страница 14

There are many psychological reasons why people tend to overestimate the probability of potential long-term negative effects. Many of these reasons are related to cognitive biases. One evolutionary explanation has to do with the cost of being wrong versus the benefit of being right. We tend to have a negativity bias that results in a hypersensitivity of potentially harmful events. Our ancestors who were irrationally fearful more often than not out survived those who were irrationally confident more often than not. But in the age of science, we don’t need to play it safe with irrational intuitions and gut feelings; we can make informed and confident decisions often with a high a degree of probability.