Читать книгу The Fox Trilogy - Chantell Ilbury - Страница 15

As you will by now have realised, the matrix builds on the well-tried methodology of scenario planning. It adds a third and fourth quadrant to represent the two final stages of decision-making – option formulation and choice – after the scenarios have been compiled. For this reason, we have subtitled the book “scenario planning in action”. It completes the loop, so to speak. Before moving on to a more detailed analysis of the four quadrants, we would like to relate one story and two quotes from a trio of internationally acclaimed and very foxy futurists. They all worked for Royal Dutch Shell which is considered the holy grail of scenario planning. Then we’ll close the section with a cautionary tale.

Pierre Wack headed Shell’s scenario planning department during the 1970s and acted as consultant to Anglo American’s scenario team during the construction of the High Road/Low Road scenarios in the 1980s. He was assisted by Ted Newland, another scenario giant who used to work at Shell. Pierre is considered the pathfinder of scenario planning along with Herman Kahn who wrote the 1962 bestseller On Thermonuclear War: Thinking About the Unthinkable. One of Pierre’s favourite forms of flattery was to call you a remarkable person. He was, as the following story indicates, one of the most remarkable men of all. In the mid-1970s, Pierre nominated two rules of the game governing the future of the oil business. The first rule was that the supply of oil would decline because, as Arab countries received a higher price per barrel, they wouldn’t need to sell so much oil to meet their domestic commitments. The second rule was that demand for oil would continue to rise, even at higher prices, because Western countries could not put in conservation measures fast enough to reduce consumption. The key uncertainty was at what point in time the downward sloping supply curve would intersect the upward sloping demand curve. If sooner, the scenario was a second oil price shock (the first one occurred in the early 1970s when the price went from $3 to $12 a barrel). This would be caused by the market entering a “zone of anxiety” in which the “principle of irresistible temptation” prevailed. Rotterdam spot traders would see the tightening of the market and ramp the price skywards. If the intersection was later, the price would remain firm at $12. Shell had two options – base their strategy on the “second shock” scenario or on business as usual. In the event, they chose the “second shock” scenario, the oil price soared to over $30 a barrel and Shell scored mightily, moving up to pole position among the oil giants. Pierre always looked for the points of greatest leverage in terms of bang for the buck: and this was a perfect illustration.

Pierre’s successor at Shell was Peter Schwartz who went on to establish the Global Business Network in California and wrote The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World. Along with Pierre’s two-part article in the Harvard Business Review of September/October 1985, entitled “The Gentle Art of Reperceiving”, this book must rate as the best in scenario literature. The memorable quote from it is: “An old Arab proverb says that he who predicts the future lies even if he tells the truth.”

The third person is Arie de Geus, who was co-ordinator of group planning at Shell and has, since his retirement from Shell, concentrated on showing how managers and organisations actually learn to do new things. In a piece entitled ”Planning as Learning” he made what at first blush may appear to be a surprising statement: “A child who is playing with a doll learns a great deal about the real world at a very fast pace.” However, based on this principle, business executives on management courses in Europe participate in a game called Lego Serious Play. They apparently use the blocks to demonstrate in a practical way their vision for the company. Then they demolish their models and start afresh, thus learning the importance of being adaptable. Arie’s point is that lengthy lectures from planners seldom lead to a change of behaviour in an audience of experienced executives. Games do and scenarios in a sense are a series of “what if” games.

Now we come to the cautionary tale. One of us (no prize for hazarding a guess!) was visiting Boston in the mid-1980s to give a guest lecture on scenario planning at the Harvard Business School. It was February and bitterly cold. The professor in charge of the course, Bruce Scott, invited Pierre Wack and the said author to his weekend retreat in the hills some miles outside the city. The countryside was covered in snow, which had been falling all week. In the evening, after a splendid meal, the host decided this was a good moment to go tobogganing down the local country lane. It was a long thin toboggan which at a pinch could accommodate three people, in this case three scenario planners. So, in the pitch dark with Bruce lighting our way with a torch, we walked to the top of the lane dragging the toboggan. Bruce sat down on it at the front, with Pierre in the middle and the said author in the rear position. Bruce pointed the torch down the lane and we set off.

Now the first rule of the game for tobogganing is that on a steep slope, when the snow is beginning to turn to ice, the toboggan will gather speed extremely quickly. Friction to retard the motion is not a factor. The second rule of tobogganing is that the route that you intend taking should be visible to the naked eye. The third rule is that at speed a torch is not effective to light up the way at night. The key uncertainty in this situation is not whether or not you are going to arrive at the bottom, but at which corner you are going to part company with the road. The options were simple: embark on this risky venture or sensibly stay at home in front of a blazing log fire nestling a nice glass of brandy. The decision was never at issue, given that male bravado rises by the power of the number of males present (in this situation it was cubed) and the quantity of wine imbibed (substantial).

The result was a sudden exit from the lane, but later than expected by the rear member of the toboggan since we made it miraculously through the early curves. None of us sustained critical injuries, as we had plunged deeply into a soft snowdrift. After dusting the snow off our clothes, we tramped back to the house with the toboggan in tow. There our spirits were revived by the log fire and brandy associated with the second option. The moral of this tale: even scenario planners have their comeuppance!