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PART I

Capitalism Adapts

Capitalism is not immutable. It has changed before (remember industrialization?) and will again.

Darwin explained how change comes about in complex systems. Writing about the finches of the Galapagos Islands, he observed that the shapes of their beaks adapted to alterations in their environment, in particular to fit the forms of the flowers that provided their food. Likewise, capitalism will adapt to changes in the broader world of global commerce in which it is situated.

What changes? Two big ones: the world's growth will no longer come from today's high-income economies (they now consume 77 percent of world GDP—but only 32 percent by 2050). Second, just as industrial technology gave form to the fast-growing economies of the twentieth century, information technology will shape the emerging economies of the twenty-first. As some businesses thrive and others struggle in this new low-income, high-growth, globally connected, digital-native environment, the rules will evolve for everyone.

In chapter 1, we survey the new world, contrasting it with the one in which today's capitalists grew up and formed the assumptions that guide their actions. In chapter 2, we draw on the science of evolution to understand how systems change, paying particular attention to one dynamic that can be blamed for capitalism's worst excesses: the runaway effect.