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The title of this book reflects the remarkable shift that has taken place in the last few years around the way companies approach the future. Before the great financial crash of 2008, they were loath to consider any other future than that assumed in their strategic plan. Looking at alternative scenarios was viewed as a waste of time, given that their forecasts were relatively accurate and their plans were pretty much on track. They brushed aside any uncomfortable information that might be in conflict with their vision. Focus was the name of the game. Don’t allow yourself to be distracted.
Against this fairly hostile background, Chantell Ilbury and I developed a technique of strategic thinking which was aligned to the mind of a fox. Always be on the alert for surprises beyond your control. Be proactive in grabbing opportunities and countering threats that arise through exceptional circumstances. Never bet the whole shop on a single future. Rather assess the different scenarios, flags and probabilities and make decisions that are resilient under a range of possibilities. Above all, be prepared to adapt to changes in the environment surrounding your business, as that one quality is the primary reason for corporate longevity. Our entire model is now contained in a single book entitled The Fox Trilogy.
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The interaction between these two axes yields four possible scenarios. Going clockwise, the first is “Hard Times“ or a classic “U“ for everybody where unemployment rates remain painfully high for much longer than people anticipate. The second scenario is “New Balls Please“ where Bernanke is the hero of the day, but the economic game is very different in its revived form. Resources are scarce as the East vies with the West for economic supremacy.
“Ultraviolet“ is a two-speed “UV“ world where emerging economies experience a recovery in the short term while advanced economies labour on under a mountain of debt. “Forked Lightning“ is a double-dip repeat of the early 1930s when the Crash of 1932 eclipsed the Crash of 1929.
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