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Dominic Robertson
See-Through Modelling
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Страница 1
Publishing Details
Страница 3
Страница 4
Introduction The commercial problem
Operating the asset, after financial close and post-construction
Changing commercial objectives
Limitations of the financial close model
The practicalities of operating a project company
Balancing the interests of the shareholders and lenders
Reinvention of modelling methods
What accountants can and cannot do
Human error
The modelling solution Different approaches in the modelling market
The right approach
Figure 1: The holistic modelling solution of See-Through Modelling
Lessons learnt from PFI Use of Microsoft Excel for financial modelling
The strength of the operating model
The cash-centric approach of PFI
Macro-economic indexation
PART 1: THEORY
Chapter 1. Modelling theory Definition of modelling
A short history of modelling
The four founding principles of modelling
1. A model is a model, not reality
2. A model must be as simple and clear as possible
3. A model must answer the commercial needs of the user
4. As above so below
The modelling mind-set
The body of modelling theory
Class 1: Model structure theory
Organisation
A structural look at the model components
Hierarchy and sheet layout
Figure 2: Business and modelling components allocated across sheets
Model flow
Links
At-source cell referencing
Daisy chains referencing
Figure 3: Example of a daisy chain link and a correct parallel reference
The tree analogy
Figure 4: Tree and root system
Model structure and the tree analogy
Navigating the model and the tree analogy
Figure 5: Trace dependents window
Class 2: Model content theory
Outputs, calculations and inputs
A detailed look at the model components
Figure 6: Model hierarchy, sheets and components
Business components
Modelling components
Formulae in modelling
Event flags and switches
Figure 7: Actual period flag
Figure 8: Switch
Indexation
Class 3: Model control theory
Forecast inputs in column format for running sensitivities
Figure 9: (Forecast) inputs in column format
Tracked outputs sets in column format for audit trail
Figure 10: Track sheet
Points of view
The time dimension
Modellers & managers: how the needs change
Figure 11: Modeller view of model components
Figure 12: Manager view of model components
Overall control of model analysis
Figure 13: Simple control panel
Class 4: Model testing theory
1. Ongoing modeller tests
2. ongoing financial statements tests
3. Tests prior to delivery
4. End user actual update and re-forecast testing
5. Three fundamental financial statements checks
6. End user acceptance testing
7. Auditor tests
Model auditor example of scope arrangement
Model auditor example approach arrangement
Model auditor example reports arrangement
Model auditor example error/query categories
Figure 14: Model review error categories
Model auditor example test – the forecast balance sheet test
Class 5: Model build theory
1. Specification (S)
2. Design (D)
Basic model structure
Business map of the model
3. Build (B) Shadow phase
Step 1 – Update:
Step 2 – Test:
Step 3 – Audit:
4. Test (T)
5. Deliver (V)
1. Shadow delivery (V1)
2. Update delivery (V2)
3. Final delivery (V3)
Non-project finance delivery events
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