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Chapter 1. Modelling theory Definition of modelling

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Business modelling includes a variety of different types of modelling. My interpretation of business models is that they are written in Excel with some use of Access and Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) and offer solutions to common business problems.

Models can belong to one or more of the following categories:

 Financial modelling – the PFI model is a financial model and a financial model has a P&L (profit & loss), CF (cash flow) and BS (balance sheet) as main results

 Econometric modelling – the results vary but the main content is of an econometric nature including any or all of:

 elasticities to derive volume, supply or demand of goods or services

 regression analysis or other statistical means to forecast volume, supply or demand of goods or services

 Deterministic modelling – where the model derives one set of results

 Probabilistic modelling – where the model can derive a distribution of the set of results

 Simulation modelling – where the model can be run a number of times, while changing one or more variables across a pre-determined range, to derive a distribution of the set of results

 Operational modelling – where the model uses management accounting and other actuals to forecast and where the actual updating process happens at regular intervals

 Strategic financial modelling – where the model provides the company’s senior management with answers to the possible direction of the company’s future finances

 Budget financial modelling – where the model provides short-term detailed financial variance analysis by comparing actuals data to budget data.

See-Through Modelling

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